Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay -134 betting line (July 25th 2014)
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The Tampa Bay Rays are simply rolling right now. They have won seven straight to get right back in the thick of the AL East and AL Wild Card races. This team has been the best in baseball since late June, going 18-6 in their last 24 games overall. I’ll continue to ride this gravy train Friday.
That’s especially the case with ace David Price on the mound. The left-hander has claimed that he is pitching better than he ever has over the last month-plus. He has gone 10-7 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in his last three.
Price has given up three earned runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts. The left-hander is also 10-7 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 23 career starts against Boston. Jon Lester is pitching well this season, but he is 14-11 with a 4.10 ERA in 30 career starts against Tampa Bay.
Boston is bringing up the rear of the AL East at 47-55 as it has simply had a World Series hangover. The Red Sox are 1-9 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rays are 55-27 in Price’s last 82 starts vs. AL East opponents. Tampa Bay is 5-0 in Price’s last five starts. Bet the Rays Friday.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Betting Pick: Chicago Cubs +135 odds (July 25th 2014)
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Saint Louis (Kelly) @ Chicago Cubs (Wood-L)—–I will back the Cubbies today as a home dog . It appears the public is betting on Saint Louis driving this line even higher and giving us more value.
The Cubs will have Wood on the mound who has indeed been struggling, but he has faced the Cardinals twice this season and the Cubs have won both games. One game he was facing Wainwright and the Cubs found a way to get to the ‘Ace’ and get the 6-5 win. I will also note that this was a Day game. The other was a 17-5 win when the Cubbies bats went crazy. While Wood has had a rough month of July, he is a guy that is very capable of pitching a gem and that’s what I am looking for today. Wood’s numbers are much lower in Day games and at Home as well, and I feel the value lies with the home dog. Wood said, ‘It’s not like I’m sailing balls all over the place, I’m just missing.” He is too good of a pitcher to keep getting rocked—-look for a strong quality start today.
Since the All-Star Break, the Cubs are hitting .230 while the Cardinals are hitting .222, but the Cubs have a slightly higher SLG% and I’ll give them the advantage as Yadier Molina’s injury to Saint Louis has been evident to their offensive production. I will also note that the Cardinals are only 12-14 SU this season (-4.5 units) vs. left handed starters and this is an inflated line in my opinion.
The Cards will have Kelly on the mound who took a ND vs. the Cubs back on 4/11 as the Cubs won the game 6-3. This will be Kelly’s 3rd start since coming off the DL and I still have questions about this guy. For beginners, he is not a strikeout pitcher. He relies on groundballs which can be a good thing, but the fact he that the staff will more than likely keep him on a pitch count under 100 pitches and that just leaves more room for error for a Saint Louis bullpen that can be a trainwreck at times. Lefties are hitting .349 vs. Kelly this season and the Cubs have a lineup where they can stack the plate with lefties and this should be a big advantage for them in this game.
Trends: The Cubs are 5-2 in Wood’s last 7 home starts and are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Brandon Shively is a PERFECT 4-0 this week and is just getting heated back up as he is ready to drop Bombs on Vegas for the rest of this Baseball season until Football starts. Brandon is the #15 capper in the Nation in 2014 at +$16,880 and has had big runs this MLB season with a 18-3 Run in May and a 12-3 Run in June. Hop on board and Let’s make this money together.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Fran +119 betting line (July 25th 2014)
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The Dodgers went into the All-Star break with a one game lead in the National League West but they have lost two of three games in their first two series after the break and are now a game and a half behind the Giants. They remain solid on the road but they have gone 2-6 in their last eight road games against teams with a winning record. They turn to Zack Greinke who is having another great season with a 2.90 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and while his team has been solid for him at home with a 6-2 record, the Dodgers are just 5-7 in his 12 road starts and it has been worse of late as they are 1-6 in Greinke’s last seven road starts. He has dominated San Francisco since coming to Los Angeles with three quality gems but all of those games were at home. The Giants went 5-2 on their roadtrip to open the second half of the season and have gotten back on top in the division. While the home success has not been as strong, the Giants are 27-9 in their last 36 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. San Francisco gives the ball to Tim Lincecum and after two poor seasons in 2012 and 2013, he is back to pitching solid. He has a 3.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 20 starts including a 2.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 home starts with the Giants going 9-3 in those games. Since his no hitter on June 25th, he has strung together five quality starts while posting an outstanding 0.96 ERA over 37.1 innings. San Francisco has won seven of his last eight starts against the Dodgers and the Giants are 6-1 in Lincecum’s last seven home starts against teams with a winning record. Play (914) San Francisco Giants
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