Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams
Week 7 NFL Pick: Seattle -6.5 (October 19th 2014)
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After a shocking 23-30 home loss to the Cowboys, I look for the Seahawks to bounce back in a big way with an easy win over the reeling Rams. Seattle didn’t just lose to Dallas, they were dominated. The only reason the Seahawks were able to make it competitive was a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown and a fumbled snap by the Cowboys that led to a score. Dallas had a 401 to 206 edge in total yards and 23 to 9 advantage in first downs.
Even with that performance, I still believe Seattle is one of the elite teams in the NFC. That loss should serve as a wake-up call for the Seahawks and have them as determined and motivated as we have seen all season when they take the field against St Louis. I’m also not concerned about the recent trade of Percy Harvin. I actually think the loss could be a blessing, as there’s a lot of reports about how Harvin wasn’t a team player and more of a problem in the lockerroom than a asset on the field.
A focused Seattle squad should have no problem shutting down a Rams offense that completely fell apart last week against the 49ers. After jumping out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, St Louis was outscore 31-3 over the final 45 minutes.
Simply put this is a bad matchup for the Rams offensively. They have struggled to get the ground game going and it’s hard to imagine Austin Davis being able to pick apart the vaunted Seattle secondary. Even after giving up 162 yards on the ground to the Cowboys, the Seahawks still come in ranked 6th in the league against the run (82.2 ypg). Unlike Dallas, St Louis doesn’t have the talent along the offensive line to push around Seattle’s defensive front.
Offensively this is also a good matchup for the Seahawks, as it’s no secret that the strength of their offense is their running game, which comes in 2nd in the league at 149.8 ypg. St Louis is 26th against the run (139.8 ypg) and are giving up 4.6 yards/carry. This another reason why I’m not worried about Seattle having Harvin at their disposal.
Add in this being a difficult spot for the Rams, who laid it all on the line against the 49ers on Monday Night Football and will be working on short rest, all signs point to a relatively easy win for the defending champs.
Seattle is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record.
There’s also a strong system in play, as favorites who are averaging 125 to 150 rushing ypg against an opponent who is giving up 95 to 125 rushing yards/game are 56-27 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That’s a 68% system in favor of the Seahawks. Take Seattle!
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