St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Betting Pick: St. Louis +105 betting line (July 31st 2014)
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The Cardinals will be out to avoid the sweep this afternoon in San Diego as they have dropped the first two games of this series. The offense has been non-existent as they have managed to plate only one run in each of the first two games and they have now gone three straight games scoring just a single run. The good news is that St. Louis has been a great bounce back team as the Cardinals are 9-0 in their last nine games after losing the first two games of a series. San Diego has been very streaky of late and it brings in a four-game home winning streak to the series finale. Overall, the Padres are two games over .500 at home but they are still hitting a mere .224 at home which is the worst home average in baseball by a significant amount. San Diego is 10-22 this season after having won two of its last three games. It has not been the season that many expected for Shelby Miller after putting together a great rookie campaign last year. Still, he is coming off a solid outing last time out after spending some time in the bullpen and I expect him to carry that into this game. His best work has come during the day where he has a 3.10 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in eight starts and the Cardinals are 9-1 in his last 10 starts after two or more consecutive losses. The Padres counter with Odrisamer Despaigne and he is far from a household name but has been exceptional since joining the rotation. He has allowed two earned runs or less in all six of his starts but his last game was pretty ugly as he went just 3.2 innings while allowing six hits and five walks. Here, we play on road underdogs with a winning percentage between .510 and .540 that are playing with double revenge playing a team with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. This situation is 41-20 (67.2 percent) since 1997. Play (903) St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Blue Jays +109 betting line (July 30th 2014)
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The Toronto Blue Jays (58-50) are currently in the final wild card spot in the American League and just 2.5 games behind Baltimore for 1st place in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox (48-59) are in last place in the AL East and 12 games out of first.
The Red Sox are in a terrible state of mind right now with all the talk surrounding them being sellers at the trade deadline. Jake Peavy was already traded, while Jon Lester and John Lackey have trade rumors surrounding them as well.
It’s no surprise that Boston has lost seven of its last eight games overall with all of the talk in the media about being sellers. Six of those losses came by multiple runs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are one of the hottest teams in baseball having won nine of their last 11 games overall.
Toronto clearly has the edge on the mound tonight behind Mark Buehrle. The left-hander has gone 10-7 with a 3.19 ERA over 21 starts this season, including 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 11 road starts. He’ll be up against Brandon Workman, who is 1-3 with a 4.13 ERA in eight starts and three relief appearances. Workman is 0-2 with a 5.24 ERA in four home starts, and 0-3 with a 6.50 ERA in his last three starts overall.
The Blue Jays are 14-3 in Buehrle’s last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record, including 7-0 in his last seven road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Red Sox are 4-12 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter. Boston is 0-5 in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blue Jays Wednesday.
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Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Betting Pick: Detroit -1.5 -117 odds (July 30th 2014)
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Chicago White Sox (Noesi) @ Detroit (Scherzer)—–I will be the first to tell you that I have not had the best luck with the Detroit Tigers this year, but I want to lay the -1.5 runs with Scherzer on the mound today.
In 21 career starts vs. the White Sox, Scherzer has a 2.40 ERA/ 1.01 WHIP, including a CG 3 hit shutout last month as Detroit won 4-0. I will also note that Scherzer is a PERFECT 4-0 his L4 starts vs. the White Sox and is a PERFECT 4-0 on the Run Line (-1.5) in these games winning by an average score of 7-2. I will also note that Detroit is 8-2 in Scherzer’s 10 home starts this season. Looking deeper, in 7 of the 8 wins, Detroit has won by 2 or more runs with an overall average score of 5-2.
The White Sox will have Noesi on the mound who has a 1.44 WHIP on the season and a 7.53 career ERA vs. Detroit in 14.1 IP which includes 4 homeruns allowed with Miguel Cabrera hitting 2 of them. So in 3 career starts vs. the Tigers, Noesi has given up 4 ER in each start and has not made it past the 6th inning. Noesi is not a strikeout pitcher and he tends to give up a lot of fly balls. I fully expect the bats of Detroit to wake up in this game and to manufacture enough runs to give Scherzer an EASY WIN tonight.
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