Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
NBA Betting Pick: Golden State -7 -110 odds (March 9th 2014)
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I like Golden State in this spot tonight as they are playing the much better basketball at the moment. Golden State is now 8-2 SU and ATS their last 10 games overall. That includes a strong road trip that they followed up with an easy 14 point win vs. the Atlanta Hawks on Friday Night. I like the addition of Steve Blake that Golden State has made as well as this gives them another option at the point guard position and can give Curry a breather when he needs it.
Phoenix is leading this series this year 2-1 with the home team going 3-0 SU and ATS. Golden State beat Phoenix easily 115-86 back on 12/27 and I have to think they will win this game by double digits as well. Golden State is also the healthier team currently as Plumlee is banged up for Phoenix and Barbosa is out after fracturing his hand last week. The biggest stat differential that I would like to make note of is the fact that Phoenix has basically quit playing defense. They are giving up an average of 111 ppg over their last 5 games allowing opponents to shoot 53% from the floor. This does not go well considering the fact that Golden State has turned up their defensive intensity only allowing 97 ppg their last 5 games holding opponents to 42% shooting from the floor, including 29% from the 3 Point Line.
In closing, we are getting a Golden State team that is clearly in a better groove currently. They are winning by playing defense and I have no problem laying points when I know that the team will win with their defense. We are also playing against a Phoenix team that is not used to playing on the road. This will only be their 3rd road game since the All-Star break and I expect them to be a bit rusty for this game considering they have been camping out at home for 8 of their last 9 games. Look for Golden State to win this game by 13-14 points .
Play on Golden State Warriors
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Toronto Raptors
NBA Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 -110 odds (March 9th 2014)
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The Minnesota Timberwolves (31-30) are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They trail the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns by 5 games each for the 7th and 8th spots in the Western Conference. It’s clear that they’ll treat every game like a must-win from here on out.
The Timberwolves have handled the pressure well as they have played their best basketball of the season over the past month. They have won seven of their last nine games overall. A big reason for their resurgence is the return to health of two starters in Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin.
Toronto is having a fabulous season, but I believe it is overvalued as only a 4.5-point underdog heading into this one. The Timberwolves are going to want revenge from a 5-point loss at Toronto in their first meeting of the season on January 17 by a final of 89-94.
The favorite is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.
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Syracuse vs. Florida State
Basketball Betting Pick: Syracuse -1.5 -110 odds (March 9th 2014)
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I’m recommending a play on Syracuse minus the points on Sunday. If this matchup took place one month ago, you’d likely have to have laid about four baskets with the Orange. But thanks to their recent struggles, the line has been over-adjusted as far as I’m concerned. I expect Syracuse to bounce back against a Florida State squad that’s won three straight games, but barring a deep run in the ACC tourney, will likely be playing for their Big Dance ticket in this one. The problem is, they don’t matchup well with Syracuse if the Orange bring their “A-game.” I believe they will. Syracuse has had five days to get over the loss to Ga Tech and get back to the fundamentals. And this is a team that still ranks 10th in the nation in ppg allowed (59.3 ppg). That’s bad news for a Seminoles’ squad that’s 1-9 ATS at home against teams that allow no more than 64 ppg. In fact, FSU has averaged just 60 ppg in those 10 contests, while allowing 67 ppg. We should also note that they are 1-9 ATS at home against teams that outscore their opponents by at least 8 ppg…and Syracuse fits the bill. Florida State is a .500 team in conference action at home (4-4 SU). They’re a weak rebounding team at home and average more turnovers than assists. Syracuse has four players averaging over 11 ppg and I believe this is a big game for them as they prepare for the upcoming ACC tourney. I believe we’re getting solid line value on the Orange and I’m recommending a play on Syracuse minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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