Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Over-Under Pick: Under 7.5 runs -110 odds (July 27th 2015)
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Kansas City has bolstered their chances of winning the AL with the acquisition of Johnny Cueto to the pitching staff, and they also just took 32 out of 3 from the Astro’s over the weekend as they continue to dominated the AL and this is a division series and they should be dialed in on Monday Night.
Two good pitchers going at it here tonight and I feel this is a pitcher’s duel tonight. Neither offense is a world beater and we all know that the Royals rely on the 3 step formula which is get their starter through 6 innings, let mid relief kick in and close with Holland, and it continues to work. KC averages 4.3 runs per game and the Tribe 3.9 runs per game but with the very consistent Volquez for KC going up against Anderson (0.63 ERA at home) I do not expect to see a ton of fireworks on offense tonight.
Another big plus on play the total under here is that both bullpens are flat out solid, and while KC is winning games they have scored only 3 runs or less in 4 out of their last 6 games.
FREE PRO PICK on the UNDER 7.5 runs tonight.
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB Pick: Houston -112 odds (July 26th 2015)
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As good as the Royals are at home, this is simply too good a value to not take a chance on the Astros with their ace Dallas Keuchel on the mound. Keuchel is 12-4 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 20 starts. He’s got a rock solid 2.70 ERA and 1.050 WHIP over his last 3 outings and a 2.61 ERA in 3 career starts against the Royals.
Kansas City will counter with Yordano Ventura, who has really struggled to live up to the hype in 2015. Ventura is just 4-7 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.349 WHIP over 14 starts. He’s got a 5.86 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 7 home starts and a ugly 8.25 ERA and 1.917 WHIP over his last 3.
Astros are 20-10 in Keuchel’s last 30 starts following a loss, 5-0 in their last 5 as a favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Keuchel is also a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 starts during game 3 of a series and 6-0 in his last 6 against a team with a winning record. Take Houston!
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
MLB Pick: Reds +104 odds (July 26th 2015)
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The Cincinnati Reds are showing solid value as road underdogs to the Colorado Rockies Sunday afternoon. They clearly have the edge on the mound in this one over the hapless Rockies, who are just 41-54 on the season.
Michael Lorenzen has actually pitched pretty well as a starter this season. He has gone 3-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 13 starts for the Reds, including 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in six road starts. He faced the Rockies on May 26, allowing just one earned run and five base runners in 7 innings for a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP.
Simply put, Kyle Kendrick is one of the worst starters in baseball. He has gone 3-11 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 19 starts, 1-5 with a 6.90 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in nine road starts, and 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three starts overall. He has allowed a ridiculous 24 homers already this year.
The Reds are 5-1 in their last six games with the total set at 11.0 or higher. The Rockies are 18-43 in their last 61 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Colorado is 3-12 in Kendrick’s last 15 starts. Bet the Reds Sunday.
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