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Brewers vs. Phillies MLB Betting Odds & Pick from John Martin: July 21st 2017

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Betting Pick: Brewers +126 odds (July 21st 2017)

The Milwaukee Brewers were just swept in four games by the Pittsburgh Pirates and are now undervalued.  At 32-61 on the season, the Philadelphia Phillies don’t deserve to be favorites here against the NL Central-leading Brewers.  Matt Garza has turned it on of late in going 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three starts.  Garza is 2-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 10 previous starts against the Phillies.  He faced them in his last start on July 16th, giving up only one earned run in five innings of work.  I expect the Brewers to get back on track against the worst team in baseball in the Phillies tonight.

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MLB Pick: Will Rogers betting the Orioles +131 odds on July 21st 2017

Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
MLB Betting Pick: Baltimore +131 odds (July 21st 2017)

The set-up: The Houston Astros lost two of three to Seattle to begin the week, leaving them 5-5 over their last 10, as they leave home for a nine-game road trip. That trip begins tonight in Baltimore, with the Orioles coming off a four-game home sweep of the Rangers. However, Baltimore  is just 46-49 and no one knows for sure if they will be buyers or sellers heading into the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31. The Astros sure seem to look like buyers, as Oakland’s Sonny Gray and Detroit’s Justin Verlander are among the prominent names to have been mentioned. Houston sits at 63-32 and owns a huge 16-game lead in the AL West plus games away from home haven’t bothered Houston so far in 2017, as the Astros own MLB’s best road record at 33-11.

The pitching matchup: Mike Fiers (6-4 & 3.75 ERA) steps to the mound for Houston Friday night, opposed by Baltimore’s Ubaldo Jimenez (4-5 & 7.01 ERA). Fiers is 5-2 with a 2.50 ERA over his last nine starts (team is 6-3) and he struck out a season-high 11 in seven strong innings of a 5-3 win over Minnesota his last time out. He has allowed just 37 hits over 54 innings during that current stretch. Fiers allowed a run in seven innings to pick up the win in his only prior start vs. Baltimore back in 2016. Jimenez has been awful in July,  allowing 15 runs on 21 hits in 13 2/3 innings over three starts this month (9.88 ERA). The good news is that he’s 4-0 with 2.60 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Houston (teams are 7-4).

The pick: The Astros are a postseason lock and the Orioles will be watching at home come October. Yes, the Astros have won 12 of the last 14 meetings with the Orioles (including six straight) but Baltimore just swept Texas here at Camden Yards, outscoring the Rangers 34-11. I’m backing the home team.

Rangers vs. Rays MLB Over-Under Pick from AAA Sports: July 21st 2017

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Over-Under Pick: Under 7.5 runs -110 odds (July 21st 2017)

With a couple of competent starting pitchers going head to head in this one, all signs point to a lower-scoring pitcehrs duel:

Yu Darvish: He’s 6-8 with a 3.45 ERA. Darvish most recently gave up three runs (just two earned) over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Royals on Sunday. Darvish has been scuffling for a while now for the Rangers, but he still comes into this one with an impressive 2.37 ERA on the road overall this season.

Alex Cobb: He’s 8-6 with a 3.59 ERA. Cobb most recently allowed one earned run off six scattered hits over 7.2 innings against the Angels on Saturday. Note that he’s a solid 4-3 with a very respectable 2.64 ERA at home this year.

The bottom line: We like these starters to battle into the latter frames and as a result, we expect this one to fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.

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