Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
NBA Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -2 (March 26th 2015)
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The Milwaukee Bucks (35-36) put an end to a six-game losing streak with an 89-88 win over the Miami Heat last time out thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer from Khris Middleton. They have played a very tough stretch of games as all seven have come against playoff contenders.
The Indiana Pacers (31-40) also put an end to a six-game losing streak last night with a huge 103-101 win at Washington. George Hill’s layup in the closing seconds proved to be the difference in a much-needed win for the Pacers and their playoff hopes.
However, this is now a very tough spot for the Pacers. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as difficult as it gets in the NBA, especially this late in the year. Milwaukee checks on on one days’ rest and will be playing just its 2nd game in 4 days.
The Bucks are 19-14 at home this season, while the Pacers are just 13-22 on the road. Indiana is just 9-23 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) this season. The Bucks are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Bucks Thursday.
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Xavier vs. Arizona
NCAA Tournament Pick: Arizona -10.5 (March 26th 2015)
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You have to give credit to Xavier for making it this far when a lot of people thought they wouldn’t make it out of their first game, but I’m not convinced a couple of wins over Ole Miss and Georgia State are going to have them ready for the likes of Arizona. I know 10.5-points is a lot, but 11 of the Wildcats victories during their current 13-game winning streak have come by double-digits. You also have to take into consideration that the closest team Xavier has played that would compare to Arizona is Villanova and the Musketeers lost all 3 meetings against the Cats by at least 12-points.
I just think Arizona is too strong defensively for Xavier to keep this one competitive. The Musketeers allowed Georgia State to shoot 56.5% from the field in the Round of 32, including 62.5% inside the 3-point line. The Wildcats on the other hand beat Ohio State by 15, despite leading scorer Stanley Johnson scoring just 4 points and as a team Arizona shot just 36.5% from the field.
Arizona’s only real weakness is their not a great shooting team, but after watching Xavier struggle to slow down Georgia State, this has blowout written all over it. Wildcats are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 after 15+ games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers/game and 9-1 ATS in the same spot against teams who average 6 or fewer steals. Take Arizona!
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West Virginia vs. Kentucky
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Kentucky -13.5 (March 26th 2015)
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10* graded play on Kentucky as they take on West Virginia in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will win this game by at least 15 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Please see my article released yesterday for the fundamental reasons Kentucky will win. Briefly, they will minimize the ‘press’ by going over the top of it and not allowing the multiple traps to occur. This means Kentucky will pass the ball quickly while moving it up the court. Holding the ball or dribbling too long – even for an extra second – can allow WVU to get that player trapped and then the remaining players fill passing lanes looking for the steal. Once Kentucky gets the ball over the top of the press they will many opportunities to attack the rim with numbers. I think it is true that the only way West Virginia can compete in this matchup is to throw the hay maker right from the opening tip and attempt to frustrate and stun Kentucky. I just don’t see this happening. If Iowa State was successful TWO times in defeating the press and winning both games easily, then it is not logical to think that this high risk press will work against a vastly better team. Further, WVU ranks 275th in the nation in effective FG%. So, it is all or nothing with this press. Kentucky is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season. Take Kentucky.
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