Cincinnati Bearcats vs. South Florida
Betting Prediction: Cincinnati -10 (October 24th 2014)
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I like Cincinnati to win this game and cover. This is a revenge game from last year when Cincy lost SU 26-20 as a 10.5 point road favorite @ South Florida. It was embarrassing for them as they had 4 costly turnovers in that game and they should have won easily, after outgaining South Florida 350-241.
Cincinnati has the better offense by 132 yards over South Florida and they have played some tough defenses in Miami Fl, Memphis, and Ohio State this season. For South Florida, this is a team that continues to struggle on offense as they have gotten outgained in 5 of their 7 games this season and overall they are losing the stats by 107 yards a game. The QB’s of South Florida are only completing 46% of their passes with a 6TD/8 INT mark and is no comparison to Gunner Kiel for Cincy, who has a wide arsenal of weapons to spread the ball too. He is the AAC’s top rated QB is TD’s and in Pass efficiency.
Now, Cincinnati’s defense as struggled unexplainably. Last season they only gave up 21 ppg, and in 2012 they only allowed 18.5 ppg. This year, they are giving up 34.5 ppg and I think that the defense is much better than we are seeing. They have experience in the front 7 and the secondary. They do have new defensive coordinators which can explain for some of it, but I know HC Tommy Tubberville prides on defense and they will start to improve. This is a great game for the defense to tighten up vs. a South Florida team that has only scored over 17 points once this season. That was last week vs. Tulsa when they actually got outgained by 76 yards so don’t let the 38-30 score fool you. Tulsa was actually up 30-14 in the 3rd quarter. After battling so hard to come back and get the win, I expect a letdown to be in store tonight as this is South Florida’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks now. With Cincy being 8-2 ATS the last 10 meetings, I look for them to get their revenge in this game and smash the gas on Friday night.
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Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan
College Football Pick: Northern Illinois -20.5 (October 25th 2014)
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Sporting a 5-2 SU record and with four of its next six games on the road, Northern Illinois won’t screw around when it visits Eastern Michigan on Saturday afternoon. The Huskies already have one loss in the MAC West Division and they can’t afford another.
As a conference guest, NIU has been a dominant force notching a solid 35-13 SU and 26-18-2 ATS record in its last 48 games. In their last 11 on the MAC road, the Huskies have posted an incredible 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS mark. Northern Illinois has pounded Eastern Michigan lately too. In their last 17 games against the Eagles, the Huskies own a proud 14-3 SU and 10-6 ATS record.
It won’t take much to fade EMU. The Eagles have been one of college football’s worst since 2007 notching a dismal 21-70 SU and 32-51-1 ATS mark including a pathetic 4-35 SU and 12-26-1 ATS in this set battling an opponent that checks in off a straight up win. To make matters worse, MAC home dogs in conference play are a ridiculous 13-68 SU and 25-54-2 ATS provided they arrive off a road game. If our “play against” host enters off a straight up loss and is priced as a pup of +10.5 or more, this conference trend slips all the way down to an awful 1-17 SU and 3-15 ATS.
Defensively, EMU is one of the worst allowing an average of 39.6 points and 521.1 yards per game. Rest assured, NIU’s high-octane offense (avg 32.1 points and 476.1 ypg) will move the football up and down the field all day long against the Eagles. Take Northern Illinois. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Oregon Ducks vs. California Golden Bears
Betting Pick: Under 79.5 (October 24th 2014)
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The Oregon Ducks will be in Santa Clara Friday night, taking on a much improved California team. Both these teams rank in the Top 10 in the nation in scoring, and because of that bettors are expecting this to be a high scoring contest. The total for this game opened at 77 (already sky high), but has been bet up as high as 80. That’s an awful lot of points for a game that has the potential to be a one-sided affair.
Cal has scored an awful lot of points against soft defenses, putting up 60 versus Washington State, 59 versus Colorado, and 45 in a loss at Arizona. They lost at home to the Washington Huskies by a score of 31-7 two weeks ago, and Oregon’s defense is at least as capable as Washington’s.
These teams play every year, and six of the last seven meetings have gone under the total. None of the last 10 games between these two teams has seen a combined 80 points. None of Oregon’s seven games so far this season have seen 80 points scored.
California has only seen 80+ points in one of it’s four home games, and of course those were all at Memorial Stadium in Berkley, while this game is in Stanta Clara at the home of the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers.
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