Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
Betting Pick: Angels -115 odds (April 17th 2015)
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Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the defending AL West champion Angels at this short of a price against the lowly Houston Astros. That’s especially the case when ace Jered Weaver is on the mound. Weaver has had a couple rough outings this season, which is why this line is lower than it should be, meaning there’s value in backing the Angels tonight. After all, Weaver has owned the Astros, going 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA and 0.802 WHIP in five career starts against them. Roberto Hernandez is far past his prime and getting too much respect here. He is 67-94 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.415 WHIP in his big league career. Hernandez has never beaten the Angels, going 0-4 in decisions with a 2-7 money line record in nine starts. He gave up nine base runners in 4 2/3 innings against Texas in his first start this year. I look for the Angels to jump on him early, and for Weaver to have a big bounce-back performance today. Hernandez is 2-12 (-12.5 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The Angels are 57-22 in Weaver’s last 79 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take Los Angeles.
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Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB Pick: Oakland -105 odds (April 17th 2015)
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Great value here with the Oakland A’s against the Kansas City Royals Friday. The A’s have been very impressive offensively this season in scoring 5.6 runs per game, but it’s their edge on the mound that has me intrigued in this one.
Sonny Gray is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues, and the unquestioned ace on this Oakland staff. He has gone 20-13 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.143 WHIP over 298 1/3 innings in his three-year career thus far. Gray is 1-0 with a 0.59 ERA and 0.587 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing just one run and nine hits in 15 1/3 innings.
Furthermore, Gray has posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City, where he has allowed three earned runs in 14 innings. He’ll be opposed by below-average starter Jeremy Guthrie, who is 4-5 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in 11 career starts against Oakland.
This is a great motivational spot for Oakland considering it wants revenge on the Royals after losing to them in the AL Wild Card game last year. The A’s are 46-22 in their last 68 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The A’s are 19-7 in Gray’s last 26 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Bet Oakland Friday.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
MLB Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5 +101 odds (April 17th 2015)
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This will be a rematch of Sunday’s starting pitching matchup in Philadelphia, where we had an unlikely pitching duel between Washington’s ace Max Scherzer and the Phillies Sean O’Sullivan. Scherzer allowed just 1 run on 6 hits over 6 innings, while O’Sullivan gave up just 2 runs on 5 hits.
I believe the fact that these two starters are facing off again in such a short period of time, heavily favors the Nationals. While it’s unlikely an anemic Philadelphia offense will have any better luck against one of the elite starters in the game in Scherzer, there’s a good possibility that Washington’s offense will have an easier time the second time around against O’Sullivan.
Since that previous meeting between Scherzer and O’Sullivan, Washington’s offense has come to life with 26 runs over their last 4 games. Philadelphia on the other hand has scored just 8 runs in their last 4 games, three of which they failed to score 2 or more.
I’m not about to lay -240 juice, but I think this a great spot to play the run line. Scherzer is 19-2 in his last 21 starts when listed as a favorite of -175 to -250 and his team has won these starts on average by a score of 5.9 to 2.7. Take Washington!
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