Troy Trojans vs. Georgia Southern
Betting Pick: Troy +26 (October 30th 2014)
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There isn’t a lot to like about the Troy Trojans this year with their 1-7 start. Meanwhile, there’s a lot to like about Georgia Southern with its 6-2 start. Its only losses this season have come to Georgia Tech and NC State on the road by a combined five points. This team has been a public darling of late. The betting public has been all over the Eagles because of their 7-1 record against the spread.
I believe that has inflated this line to the point where the only choice here is to back the Trojans, even as gross as it might be to do so. The oddsmakers know that the betting public wants nothing to do with the Trojans and everything to do with the Eagles, so they have had to adjust the odds accordingly. There is clearly some value in taking the points with this massive road underdog.
Troy has put together enough quality performances against the spread this season to go 4-4 ATS on the year. It only lost to Duke by 17 as an 18-point underdog. It only lost at Louisiana-Monroe by two points as a 14-point dog. It beat New Mexico State 41-24 as an 8-point favorite. Last week, it went into South Alabama and competed, losing by 14 as a 16-point dog.
One big factor coming into this game is that Troy is going to have one extra day to prepare for Georgia Southern. It played last Friday against South Alabama, and it had the opportunity to watch Georgia Southern play Saturday against Georgia State. That extra day could be huge here because this is a short week for both teams, so one day makes a big difference.
Georgia Southern has had some performances in recent weeks that make me believe this 26-point spread is too much. It beat Appalachian State 34-14 at home, New Mexico State 36-28 on the road, and Idaho 47-24 at home. Troy is at least on the same level talent-wise of all three of those teams, and all three of them lost by 23 or fewer to Georgia Southern.
Larry Blakeney is 11-3 ATS in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards as the coach of Troy. Blakeny is 22-9 ATS off two consecutive games where his team forced one or fewer turnovers as the coach of Troy. Plays against home favorites (GA SOUTHERN) – in a game involving two mistake-free teams that commit 1.25 turnovers or less per game in conference games are 84-38 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I simply believe the Eagles are finally overvalued this week. Bet Troy Thursday.
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