Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Betting Pick: Texas +10 (October 25th 2014)
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The Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) are getting a lot of love for their 31-30 win against the Sooners last week. I believe they are overvalued because of it. A closer look at the box score shows that Oklahoma should have won, and should have won handily. It outgained the Wildcats 533-385 for the game, or by 148 total yards. It missed an extra point and a chip shot field goal late that would have given it the victory.
That Oklahoma game gives these teams a common opponent. Texas also played the Sooners, and should have won, but lost by a final of 26-31 two weeks ago. The Longhorns outgained the Sooners 482-232 for the game, or by 250 total yards. Another common opponent is Iowa State, which Kansas State beat 32-28. Texas beat Iowa State 48-45. Those two results show that these are pretty equal teams, meaning this 10-point spread is inflated.
Texas has really gotten its offense going the last two weeks now that sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has gained some valuable experience. Swoopes threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 50 yards and a score against Oklahoma. He came back against Iowa State and threw for 322 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 95 yards and a score.
As you can see, Swoopes has accounted for over 800 yards of offense and five touchdowns over the past two weeks. This is a completely different Texas offense than the one we saw in the first five games of the year. The Wildcats haven’t exactly been a shut-down defense, giving up 22.5 pints and 352.0 yards per game this year.
The Texas defense has also played much better than it gets credit for. It is giving up just 346.3 yards per game on the season, which is impressive when you consider it has faced some elite offenses in the likes of BYU, UCLA, Baylor and Oklahoma already. Kansas State has actually been worse on that side of the ball against a much softer schedule.
Charlie Strong is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Strong is 13-1 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached. Strong is 9-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 75% in all games he has coached. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. This could be a letdown spot for the Wildcats off their big win over the Sooners as well. Bet Texas Saturday.
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