South Florida Bulls vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
College Football Pick: Cincinnati -10.5 (October 24th 2014)
CLICK HERE FOR JACK JONES’ EXPERT COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS
While the Bearcats have been blown out three times this season, all three of those games came against quality opponents in Ohio State, Memphis and Miami, and two of them came on the road. After that gauntlet of a schedule, playing teams like SMU and South Florida have to feel like a breeze for the Bearcats. I look for them to make easy work of the Bulls at home in this one.
The Bearcats got back in the win column last week with a 41-3 win at hapless SMU. It outgained the Mustangs 508-276 for the game. The defense put forth their best effort of the season in limiting SMU to just a field goal while forcing four turnovers. They held the Mustangs scoreless after the first quarter and cruised to a 38-point victory.
Now Cincinnati returns home, where it has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country. The Bearcats have gone 5-1 or better at home in five of the past six seasons. They went 6-0 in 2008, 6-0 in 2009, 5-1 in 2011, 6-1 in 2012 and 5-1 in 2013. So, in those five seasons combined, they sported a 28-3 record at home. They are a completely different animal inside the friendly confines of Paul Brown Stadium.
Despite getting five of their first seven games at home this season, the South Florida Bulls have been blown out by double-digits three times. Their only three wins have come against Western Carolina, Connecticut and Tulsa. One of those teams is an FCS opponent, while the other two are among the worst teams in the FBS. They also only won those three games all by 8 points or fewer.
This Cincinnati offense is putting up big numbers in 2014, averaging 34.3 points and 443.0 yards per game. Gunner Kiel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,853 yards with 19 touchdowns against six interceptions. He should have his way with a USF defense that is giving up 29.0 points and 418.3 yards per game.
I just don’t believe that South Florida has the offensive firepower to keep up with Kiel and company in this one. The Bulls are averaging just 21.7 points and 311.3 yards per game to rank 120th out of 128 teams in total offense. That’s really bad when you consider the opponents they have faced thus far are giving up averages of 28.4 points and 400 yards per game.
I believe this line has been set lower than it should be because USF beat Cincinnati 26-20 at home last year. However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Bearcats should have won, but gave it away. They outgained the Bulls 350-241 for the game, but the Bulls got two non-offensive touchdowns on four Cincinnati turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Don’t expect the Bearcats to make the same kind of mistakes at home this time around.
Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games off a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. The Bulls are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. South Florida is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with South Florida. Bet Cincinnati Friday.
No. 1 Ranked Basketball Handicapper from 2012-13! Jack Jones came back with a No. 4 Hoops Finish in 2013-14! Heading into the 2014-15 campaign, Jack is riding an EPIC 842-668 Basketball Run that has seen his $1,000/game players profit a RIDICULOUS $124,380!
***NOTE*** – For 1 Week ONLY (October 21st-October 27th) you can get Jack’s 2014-15 NBA & CBB Season Pass for $599.95! That’s $100 OFF the original price of $699.95! It will go back up to $699.95 on October 28th, which is opening night of the 2014-15 NBA season!