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MLB Pick: Alex Smart betting the Oakland A’s -104 odds on July 22nd 2017

Oakland Athletics vs. New York Mets
MLB Betting Pick: A’s -104 odds (July 22nd 2017)

As LH Sean Manaea (8-5, 3.68 ERA) vs. Mets RH Zack Wheeler (3-7, 4.98)

As starting hurler Manaea has lasted at least seven innings in each of this three starts .He owns a 2.67 ERA over his last four starts while allowing just one home run in 27 innings of top tier work, and matches up very well vs the NY Mets batting order. Meanwhile, Mets starter Wheeler has dropped five straight decisions and operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum as is evident by recording a 10.13 ERA during the above mentioned negative run. Needless to say from a pitching perspective that the As have the edge here on a value line.

MLB  team like the As – lower tier offensive team – scoring 4.4 runs/game or less on the season (AL) against opponent allowing 5.0 or more runs/game on the season (NL) are a long term profitable side to back as their record clicks in at 174-127 dating back 20 seasons, for a .578 win rate with dime players making more than $47980.00 in profits backing this trend. Also over the same time period MLB Home teams like the Mets – good NL offensive team (4.7 runs/game or more ) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities. are 23-50 for a go against conversion rate of  69% for bettors.

Play on the Athletics to win on the moneyline

Brewers vs. Phillies MLB Betting Odds & Pick from John Martin: July 21st 2017

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Betting Pick: Brewers +126 odds (July 21st 2017)

The Milwaukee Brewers were just swept in four games by the Pittsburgh Pirates and are now undervalued.  At 32-61 on the season, the Philadelphia Phillies don’t deserve to be favorites here against the NL Central-leading Brewers.  Matt Garza has turned it on of late in going 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three starts.  Garza is 2-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 10 previous starts against the Phillies.  He faced them in his last start on July 16th, giving up only one earned run in five innings of work.  I expect the Brewers to get back on track against the worst team in baseball in the Phillies tonight.

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MLB Pick: Will Rogers betting the Orioles +131 odds on July 21st 2017

Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
MLB Betting Pick: Baltimore +131 odds (July 21st 2017)

The set-up: The Houston Astros lost two of three to Seattle to begin the week, leaving them 5-5 over their last 10, as they leave home for a nine-game road trip. That trip begins tonight in Baltimore, with the Orioles coming off a four-game home sweep of the Rangers. However, Baltimore  is just 46-49 and no one knows for sure if they will be buyers or sellers heading into the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31. The Astros sure seem to look like buyers, as Oakland’s Sonny Gray and Detroit’s Justin Verlander are among the prominent names to have been mentioned. Houston sits at 63-32 and owns a huge 16-game lead in the AL West plus games away from home haven’t bothered Houston so far in 2017, as the Astros own MLB’s best road record at 33-11.

The pitching matchup: Mike Fiers (6-4 & 3.75 ERA) steps to the mound for Houston Friday night, opposed by Baltimore’s Ubaldo Jimenez (4-5 & 7.01 ERA). Fiers is 5-2 with a 2.50 ERA over his last nine starts (team is 6-3) and he struck out a season-high 11 in seven strong innings of a 5-3 win over Minnesota his last time out. He has allowed just 37 hits over 54 innings during that current stretch. Fiers allowed a run in seven innings to pick up the win in his only prior start vs. Baltimore back in 2016. Jimenez has been awful in July,  allowing 15 runs on 21 hits in 13 2/3 innings over three starts this month (9.88 ERA). The good news is that he’s 4-0 with 2.60 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Houston (teams are 7-4).

The pick: The Astros are a postseason lock and the Orioles will be watching at home come October. Yes, the Astros have won 12 of the last 14 meetings with the Orioles (including six straight) but Baltimore just swept Texas here at Camden Yards, outscoring the Rangers 34-11. I’m backing the home team.

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