South Carolina vs. Gonzaga
NCAA Tournament Pick: Gonzaga -6 (April 1st 2017)
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I’m backing the Bulldogs to win and cover the 6-point spread against the Gamecocks. It’s been a great story for South Carolina, but let’s not overlook the path they have had to get to the Final Four. Sure they beat Duke, but Baylor and Florida aren’t exactly on the same level as Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have proven they are the real deal and dismantled another Cinderella story in their last game, crushing No. 11 seed Xavier 83-59. This Gonzaga team is rock solid on both sides of the ball. A lot of people are talking about South Carolina’s defense, but the Bulldogs stop unit has been lights out as well. In fact, you could argue it’s been even better. They have held all four of their NCAA Tournament opponents to 41% or worse from the field, with 3 of those failing to shoot better than 36%. Gonzaga will have the much easier time scoring in this one and I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned into a blowout. Give me the Bulldogs -6!
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Kentucky vs. North Carolina
NCAA Tournament Over-Under Pick: Under 161 points -110 odds (March 26th 2017)
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This is one of the highest totals of the 2017 NCAA Tournament. The previous high was the 167.5-point total between UCLA and Kentucky last round in which we saw 161 combined points and the UNDER cashing. I think the value is with the UNDER in this game as well.
The betting public is infatuated with the 103-100 game these teams played back in December. But that was a complete aberration as there was no defense played whatsoever. I like the fact that both teams are familiar with each other having already played once this year. I also think this one will be played much closer to the vest with what’s at stake, and it won’t just be a run-and-gun type of game like the first meeting.
The reason Kentucky has made it this far and finished the regular season strong is because it is one of the most improved defensive teams in the country. The Wildcats have won 14 straight coming in, and the UNDER is 12-1 in their last 13 games overall. It’s not a coincidence as they haven’t allowed more than 77 points in any of their last 13 games, and they’ve given up 70 or fewer in 10 of those.
UNC is 10-1 UNDER when revenging a loss vs opponent over the past two seasons. Kentucky is 8-1 UNDER in all NCAA Tournament games over the past three seasons. The UNDER is 7-0 in Wildcats last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Tar Heels last 11 games following a win. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Florida Gators
NCAA Tournament Over-Under Pick: Under 132 (March 24th 2017)
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Both these teams played excellent defense last time out. The Badgers held the defending champs to only 62 points, on 41.2% shooting. Not bad considering that Villanova entered that game averaging 77.6 points, while hitting 49.8% of its field goals. Florida’s defensive performance was even more impressive. Indeed, the Gators limited Virginia to a mere 39 points. The Cavs connected only less than 30% (29.6%) of their field goals, while hitting a paltry 7.6% from beyond the arc. The Badgers, who are slight underdogs here, have been “getting points” four times this season. All four of those games fell below the total. Those four games had combined scores of 127, 122, 121 and 127. This one has all the makings of another relatively low-scoring affair. Consider the Under.
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Arizona Wildcats vs. Xavier Musketeers
Basketball Over-Under Pick: Over 144 (March 23rd 2017)
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Take Over the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers and the Arizona Wildcats. Xavier (23-13) enters this game coming off their big 91-66 win over Florida State in a game where they shot 55.6% from the field. The Musketeers have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Xavier has also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. Arizona (32-4) reached the Sweet 16 with their 69-60 win over Saint Mary’s as a 5-point favorite. The Wildcats have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, the Over is 4-1-1. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.
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