Idaho vs. Wisconsin Green Bay
College Basketball Prediction: Idaho +3 (December 22nd 2011)
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The Vandals come into this game off a heartbreaking 78-80 overtime loss at Wright State as a 1-point favorite. Even with the loss, Idaho is a DOMINANT 4-1 ATS ON THE ROAD. That includes an outright win at Oregon State (74-60) as a 12.5-point underdog.
The loss snapped the Vandals 3-game winning streak. Idaho is is 7-5 on the year. They have rebounded from their first four losses with a straight up win and a win against the spread.
Wisconsin-Green Bay is just 5-6 overall, but this is weird game for them. The Phoenix haven’t played since barely holding off Michigan Tech at home 69-61 last Tuesday. After their game against Idaho they won’t play again until next Thursday. I expect them to come out very flat and lose this game outright. The safe play is to take the 3-points, but I will likely throw a little extra on the Idaho money line of +144.
Idaho is 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. BET THE VANDALS +3!
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UT Arlington vs. St. Peters
NCAA Basketball Pick: St. Peters +7.5 (December 22nd 2011)
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We played on Texas Arlington +6 on the premium side yesterday and watched it upset Kent State. That big win sets the Mavericks up for a letdown this evening. After playing Kent State tough to earn a cover Tuesday, St. Peter’s was crushed by 25 points by Utah State last night. That loss assures us the Peacocks will be hungry this evening. Consider that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a December road loss of 20 points or more are 73-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams, which have been underdogs of 6.3 points on average, have only lost by an average of 3.4 points in this situation. With this in mind, I believe St. Pete’s is showing good value at this line. The Peacocks have been one of the least-known quality investments recently, covering the number in 17 of their last 23 games. They have really sizzled as an underdog, going 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games in the point-catching role. Getting a little more specific, we find the Peacocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 20 points. We’ll take the points.
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Portland vs. Nevada
College Basketball Pick: Nevada -12.5 (December 22nd 2011)
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The Nevada Wolf Pack are one of the more underrated teams in the country. This team has managed to get through a very difficult schedule at 8-3 to this point. Their only losses have come against UNLV, BYU and Missouri State, three teams with a combined 28-8 record.
Their schedule gets much easier tonight as they host the Portland Pilots. One of the worst teams in college basketball, Portland is just 3-9 this season with their only wins coming against Florida Atlantic, Georgia State and Lewis Clark. Eight of their nine losses have come by double-digits this season.
Portland is 0-6 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in true road games this season. Their road losses came against Washington (63-93), UCSB (69-83), Kentucky (63-87), Saint Louis (53-73), Boise State (70-92) and Utah (67-72). That’s an average loss of 19.2 points/game.
The Pilots are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games. Portland is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Pilots are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog. Nevada is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bet Nevada Thursday.
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Cal Poly vs. Depaul
College Basketball Pick: DePaul -2.5
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I think we have a big letdown factor in store for Wednesday with the Mustangs. Cal Poly has gotten off to a great start this season as it is 8-3 and it is actually the best start for the program in 10 years. The Mustangs had a solid season a year ago as they finished right at .500 including a 10-6 record in the Big West so this year’s start should come as no surprise. The letdown factor involved comes from Saturday after a win against rival Fresno St., the first time they have defeated the Bulldogs in the last 13 meetings.
Since getting waxed by Wisconsin-Milwaukee, DePaul has won its last four games with two of those coming on the road so it has been a strong run for the Blue Demons. They have just three losses this season with two coming against Minnesota and Mississippi by a combined three points while loss against the Panthers was doomed from the start after Wisconsin-Milwaukee shot more than 80 percent from the floor and hit four straight three-pointers to open a 35-13 lead just 10:30 into the game.
This game features strength against strength as the Mustangs bring in one of the best defenses in the country while DePaul brings in a very potent offense. The Blue Demons are extremely athletic so playing an up-tempo game is in their favor and they will try and do that again here as they have scored no fewer than 68 points all season. They have put up point totals of 80 or more five times and playing at home should give them the advantage of forcing Cal Poly to play at their tempo.
After winning seven games a season ago, DePaul has already surpassed that win total and with this being the final game for the next ten days, we will see another strong effort from the Blue Demons as they gear up for Big East play. DePaul is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games after playing a game as a favorite and it is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a win. DePaul has yet to cover a game at home, going 0-2 ATS but the price is right tonight to snap that skid. 3* (756) DePaul Blue Demons. Get more college basketball picks for December 21st 2011 from Matt Fargo at Touthouse.com
Wyoming vs. Denver
College Basketball Pick: Denver -7.5 (December 19th 2011)
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We won with Denver three games back as it was able to cover against Iona but lost by a bucket in overtime, its only home loss of the season. The Pioneers bounced back with two straight wins, most recently defeating a very good Boise St. team by 17 points at home on Saturday. They now have some momentum heading into Monday in what is a big revenge game after falling Laramie last season by 13 points. Denver was outshot at the free throw line 30-12 which ended up being the difference.
Wyoming has won nine straight games after suffering its first loss of the season at Wisconsin-Green Bay a month ago. The Cowboys have had the luxury of playing eight of those games at home with the one road game coming at Colorado resulting in an upset win. The defense has played a big role in the early success as Wyoming has held opponents to just 50.8 ppg on 36.8 percent shooting including 24.2 percent from long range but that defense will be tested tonight.
Denver is 8-2 to start the season and it is no fluke as the Pioneers return nine players, including four starters from last year’s squad that finished third in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. They also welcome back Rob Lewis, who missed last season due to injury, and he was a starter prior to that as well. They have one of the better home court advantages in college hoops as the Pioneers are 5-1 at home, improving their record to 52-12 at Magness Arena under head coach Joe Scott.
Denver also falls into a great contrarian situation as we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a game committing five or less turnovers. This situation is 84-44 ATS (65.6 percent) since 1997. The Pioneers are 6-0 ATS at home over the last two seasons against teams outscoring opponents by four or more ppg while Wyoming is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog between 7.0 and 12.5 points. Denver gets its revenge tonight. 3* (750) Denver Pioneers. Get more college basketball picks on December 19th 2011 from Matt Fargo at Touthouse.com.
