Wichita State vs. Creighton
College Basketball Pick: Creighton -1 (February 11th 2012)
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I’m recommending a play on Creighton in the MVC’s biggest game of the season. The Blue Jays were “sitting pretty” on top of the league standings for quite some time, but just dropped a pair of road games at Northern Iowa and Evansville. The Jays looked about as flat as they have all season in the loss to the Purple Aces. But the joint will be jumping in Omaha, and Creighton will be highly motivated to gain the season sweep over the current 1st place Shockers. A loss at home would drop the Jays 2 games back of Wichita in the league standings. Creighton had a season low 57 possessions last time out and nearly half of their shots came from behind the arc. They were simply off-kilter against Evansville. The Jays don’t fall off-kilter much in Omaha. They’re 12-1 SU this season, winning their last 4 at home by an average score of 85-63. The Shockers limited Doug McDermott to 9 shots and 12 points in their December meeting. But while doubling McDermott, they had no answer for Antoine Young, who led the Jays with 19. Creighton also has Gregory Echenique to go toe-to-toe with Wichita big man Garrett Stutz. Echenique shut Stutz down in the 68-61 CU victory. Wichita has covered just 5 of their last 21 as a road dog of less than 7 points and they’re 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as a dog, overall. Meanwhile, the Jays take care of business at home, currently on a 17-4 ATS run as home chalk. I’m recommending a play on Creighton on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott. Don’t miss out on Scott Spreitzer’s premium college basketball picks for February 11th 2012
Iowa vs. Northwestern
NCAA Basketball Pick: Iowa +7 -110 odds (February 9th 2012)
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Northwestern is coming off a big road win on Sunday at rival Illinois and now it is being asked to lay a big number against a team that possesses a better conference record. The Wildcats are now 4-6 in the Big Ten following two straight wins but getting that third straight victory will be a challenge as they have not won three straight games in the conference since the end of the 2008-09 season. Northwestern is 9-3 at home this season but just 3-2 in the conference.
The Hawkeyes have also won two straight and while both of those came at home, this is a much improved team from last season. Iowa won only four Big Ten games all of last season and a win here can put it into a tie for fifth place in the conference. Iowa has lost its last three road games in the Big Ten but those losses came against top teams in Purdue, Indiana and Michigan St. It does possess a quality road win at Wisconsin so winning on the road is certainly a possibility here.
Iowa will have a tough matchup on defense as the Wildcats employ the Princeton-style offense and the Hawkeyes must match up with Northwestern’s multiple three-point shooters and defend the backdoor plays. They defend the three-point shot well including allowing just 31.4 percent on the road. They should have a good gameplan in place after the Wildcats lit them up for 26 three-points in the two meetings last season. After allowing 103 points at Indiana, Iowa has allowed just 123 points the last two games.
As far as power ratings go, there is not a lot separating these two teams so a highly competitive game should be expected. The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS over the last 11 meetings in this series and this season the Hawkeyes are a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs of seven points or less. Meanwhile, Northwestern is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win and it is also 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 3* (735) Iowa Hawkeyes. If you found this Iowa vs. Northwestern pick useful, be sure to purchase Matt Fargo’s expert picks today!
Michigan vs. Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska +3 -110 odds (February 8th 2012)
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This may look like a safe spot to bet Michigan as a small road favorite, but I believe your money needs to be on the Cornhuskers. Michigan is simply not a very good team on the road, where Nebraska easily plays their best basketball at home. In conference play the Wolverines are just 1-4 on the road, with their only win coming by 2-points at Purdue. Eight of Nebraska’s 11 wins have came at home, including a shocking win over Indiana as 3.5-point underdog.
Even though Michigan comes into this game off a loss, I think it’s going to be extremely hard for them to get motivated to play a poor team like Nebraska, especially with two huge home games against Illinois and Ohio State next up on the schedule.
Nebraska simply isn’t a popular team to bet on in college basketball, which in turn has allowed the oddsmakers to really set up the public. The Cornhuskers are 32-12 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997 and are 15-4 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997. BET NEBRASKA!
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Evansville vs. Creighton
College Basketball Pick: Creighton -5.5 (February 7th 2012)
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This could have been a potential look ahead spot for Creighton, who hosts Wichita State Saturday, but a loss at Northern Iowa last game assures us the Bluejays won’t take Evansville lightly.
Creighton has won 6 in a row against the Purple Aces with these wins coming by an average of 9.8 points. It is also worth noting that Creighton is 9-1 ATS off a loss to a conference rival with coach McDermott at the helm. It has won by an average of 7.7 points in this situation.
In addition, the Bluejays are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Evansville. Overall, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Creighton.
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Arizona vs. Stanford
College Basketball Pick: Stanford -3 (February 4th 2012)
Arizona is coming off a massive win on Thursday as it won at California, ending the Golden Bears’ 17-game winning streak at Haas Pavilion. The victory improved the Wildcats to 6-4 in the conference and kept them two games behind Washington for first place. They have been decent on the road this season, going 5-3 overall including 3-2 in the Pac 12 but the other two wins came against bottom feeders USC and Utah. While the travel is not a lot, it still presents a tough spot.
Stanford rolled over Arizona St. to also improve to 6-4 in the conference and like California, it has a strong home court edge. The Cardinal are 12-1 at Maples Pavilion with the only loss coming against Butler in non-conference action. The easy victory over the Sun Devils on Thursday allowed some rest for the starters as Stanford cleared the bench for a lot of the game as 11 players logged nine or more minutes of action and no starter played more than 27 minutes.
The Wildcats suffered a tough loss last week with the loss of guard Kevin Parrom which hurts the depth of the backcourt. Now it gets worse as Thursday night, Arizona also lost the services of guard Jordin Mayes which really thins out the backcourt. Without Parrom and Mayes, the Wildcats’ bench basically consists of guard Brendon Lavender and center Angelo Chol. Freshman shooting guard Nick Johnson will be the backup point guard and the Wildcats now have only seven players logging double-digits in minutes.
Stanford has Arizona in a position to snap its five-game losing streak against the Wildcats. Stanford’s most recent victory over Arizona came back on Jan. 4, 2009 which was also at home. Overall the Cardinal are 63-17 at home since the start of 2007 so it is a tough place for the opposition to come into. They have covered 26 of their last 37 home games against teams with a winning road record and they are 7-1 ATS this season against teams coming off a win in their last game. 3* (568) Stanford Cardinal. Get more college basketball picks on February 4th 2012 from Matt Fargo at Touthouse.com
