College Basketball Picks: February 22nd 2013
Dartmouth vs. Yale
Prediction: Dartmouth +11
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These teams played on February 2nd and Dartmouth handed Yale a 9 point loss. The change in venue is not enough to swing the end result enough for Yale to cover such a large number. You should always play against home favorites of 10 or more points like Yale when they are off a home win against a conference rival, in February games. This trend is 194-122 (61.4%) over the last 5 seasons.
This game also falls into a situation to play on a road team like Dartmouth shooting 40% or less and playing against a team allowing 42.5-45% shooting after 15+ games in the season. This situation is 122-75 (61.9%) over the last 5 seasons.
Dartmouth does a good job of controlling turnovers, averaging 14 or less per game on the road. They do an average job on the boards averaging 9 offensive rebounds per game on the road while Yale averages 9 offensive boards at home. Yale may get their revenge in this game, but it should not be by the 11+ points it will take to cover this large spread.
Iowa State vs. Baylor
Basketball Betting Pick: Baylor -4.5 -110 odds (February 20th 2013)
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The Baylor Bears should be a bigger home favorite over the Iowa State Cyclones tonight. Baylor will want revenge from its 71-79 road loss at Iowa State in their first meeting of the season on February 2nd. I like its chances of getting it considering how poorly the Cyclones have played on the road this season.
Iowa State is just 2-7 in true road games this season. Its only two road wins this season have come at Missouri-KC and at TCU. As you can see, it does not have a good road win yet. Baylor is 11-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 16.7 points/game.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Iowa State and Baylor. In fact, the home team has won 14 straight meetings dating back to 2001. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. That’s the kind of evidence I’ll gladly back my money with.
This play falls into a system that is 75-36 (67.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BAYLOR) – revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points. Bet Baylor Wednesday.
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NC Wilmington vs. Old Dominion
Basketball Prediction: Old Dominion -6 -110 odds (February 20th 2013)
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Old Dominion cannot wait for this dreadful season to end but it in a good spot to pick up a victory as it catches the Seahawks off an upset win.
I think this is a good spot for Old Dominion to pick up a rare win. It has been a tough year for the Monarchs as they are 3-23 on the season and after losing 20 of their first 22 games, the let go long time head coach Blaine Taylor but it is believed there is more to it than just a bad season as his history in Norfolk was outstanding. Old Dominion responded with a huge effort as it won at Drexel by 12 points as 12-point underdogs and then followed that up with two close losses, one by five points against Northeastern in overtime and the second by a bucket on the road at Delaware. The Monarchs are coming off a 12-point loss against William & Mary on Saturday but the opportunity is right to back them here. NC-Wilmington is coming off an upset win on Saturday as it defeated first place Northeastern by six points at home as a 4.5-point underdog so the Seahawks will be in letdown mode come Wednesday as they take to the road where it has been a nightmare season. They are 1-13 on the road this season with the lone win coming at Hofstra and for the entire season, the home team is 22-4 in NC-Wilmington’s 26 games. It won the first meeting at home but it came by just five points so the Monarchs know they can play this team good enough to take care of business. The Seahawks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win while Old Dominion is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Play (724) Old Dominion Monarchs
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami Florida Hurricanes
Betting Prediction: Virginia +8 -110 odds (February 19th 2013)
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Ryan went 2-1 with his trio of 25* Titans winning with +120 Avalanche in NHL and splitting with Rutgers, but losing with Pittsburgh in College Hardwood action. He is 51-30 ATS for 63% ATS winners spanning his last 81 College Hoops 25* Titans. This one features a 90% ATS game situation.
10* graded play on the Virginia Cavaliers as they take on the Miami Hurricanes in ACC Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by seven or fewer points. I had Clemson as a 25* Titan winner Sunday as they came very close to pulling off the upset against Miami. Still, Miami showed the fortitude and will to just win even in a hostile environment. The public has become greatly enamored with the Hurricanes and this has caused the lines in their games to be significantly inflated. Moreover, coaches are getting more game films to study and prepare game plans that will work very well against Miami. Such was the case with Clemson, who out played Miami, but simply failed to close the deal in the final minute. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 108-66 ATS mark for 62% winners since 2007. Play against a favorite after 9 or more consecutive wins in games played in February. This system under scores, who the public tails streaking teams and forces to inflate the line, thereby giving you an excellent shot at taking the home dog. Further, UVA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Take Virginia.