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NCAAF Pick: Larry Ness betting Boston College -4.5 over Syracuse: October 22nd 2016

SYRACUSE VS. BOSTON COLLEGE BETTINGSyracuse Orange vs. Boston College Eagles
College Football Pick: Boston College -4.5 (October 22nd 2016)
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Syracuse (3-4 / 1-2 in the ACC) will take on Boston College (3-3 / 0-3 in the ACC) Saturday afternoon at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Syracuse is 6th in the seven-team ACC Atlantic Division and Boston College, naturally, is dead-last. The Orange have won four of the last six meetings plus come off the biggest win of Dino Babers’ first season. Syracuse hosted Va Tech last Saturday and as a 23-point underdog, won 31-17. The ‘Cuse didn’t just beat the then-No. 19 Hokies, they rolled up 561 yards on an excellent defensive Va Tecgh unit. QB Dungey passed for 311 yards with one TD pass plus added 106 yards and another TD. “The biggest thing about this win is that any time you take over a program you’re trying to get everybody to buy in, you’re trying to get everybody to work as one,” coach Dino Babers said after the game. “…It’s always that way until you get that one win that solidifies you, that brings you together, that hardship that brings the family closer together. That’s what happened today. We’re now family.”

Boston College last played October 7th, losing emphatically 56-10 to Clemson. Despite that blowout loss, the Boston College defense ranks 3rd in yards allowed (252.2 YPG) and 23.7 PPG, which ranks 43rd. The Eagles had hoped Kentucky transfer QB Patrick Towles would add “something extra” to this year’s oddense (BC averaged only 17.2 PPG in 2015). However, that hasn’t been the case, as he’s completed just 50.8 percent for 897 yards, although he’s thrown only three INTs (against seven TDs). Still, BC has hardly had a breakout year offensively, averaging 21.2 PPG. The Eagles have been outscored by 105-10 in their last two conference contests, with Towles going a combined 20-of-50 for 171 yards.

Boston College has notably lost 11 consecutive ACC games but as fate would have it, the school’s last league win came back on Nov 29, 2014, a 28-7 triumph at home against Syracuse. This is the Eagles’ fourth straight home game and arguably its best chance to end their ACC losing streak. Syracuse is off a HUGE upset win over Va Tech plus BC head coach Steve Addazzio and DC Jim Reid have had two full weeks to prepare the defense for a big effort. The bet is BC!

Will Rogers betting Hawaii as a 17 point underdog against Air Force on October 22nd 2016

HAWAII VS. AIR FORCEHawaii Warriors vs. Air Force Falcons
College Football Betting Pick: Hawaii +17 (October 22nd 2016)
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Hawaii’s D is a problem but unlike LW when Hawaii was a TD favorite, the Rainbow Warriors are getting more than two TDs…

The set-up: Air Force (4-2 / 1-2 in MWC) started with four wins out of the gate in the 2016 season, including one against rival Navy. However, the Falcons fell 35-26 at Wyoming back on Oct. 8 and then last Saturday, lost a back-and-forth game in Dallas to New Mexico, 45-40. Hawaii travels to Colorado Springs to take on the Falcons, off a disappointing 41-38 loss to UNLV in Honolulu, dropping the team below .500 on the season and more damaging, to 2-1 and tied with UNLV, with both schools behind 2-0 San Diego State in the West Division of the MWC.

Hawaii: Dru Brown, a sophomore transfer from College of San Mateo, took over as starting QB in Hawaii’s MWC opener against Nevada, leading the Rainbow Warriors to back-to-back wins conference wins, 38-17 at home against Nevada and then 34-17 at San Jose State 34-17. (see above). He completing 76.5 percent of his passes for 509 yards with 4 TDs and zero INTs in those two contests. Brown played well again last Saturday vs. UNLV, completing 17 of 32 for 217 yards with two TDs and again, zero INTs. The running game had 229 yards (6.9) but in the end, the Hawaii defense let the team down, allowing 41 points on 535 yards. Hawaii comes into this contest allowing 38.9 PPG (122nd) on 487.6 YPG (120th).

Air Force: In stark contrast, the Falcons are allowing 24.8 PPG (49th) on 34.2 YPG (27th), while surpassing Hawaii (30.4 PPG) on offense as well. Air Force is averaging 34.3 PPG (38th) and owns the nation’s 6th-best running game, averaging 275.2 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The Falcons have controlled the all-time series, going 13-6-1 and have taken the last two meetings, including last year’s 58-7 win in Honolulu. It’s Troy Calhoun’s experience that gives the edge to the Falcons.

The pick: Troy Calhoun is in his 10th season at Air Force and has led the Falcons to eight bowls in his first nine. Meanwhile, Hawaii’s Nick Rolovich is in his first-ever season as a head coach. However, there can be little doubt that the former Hawaii QB has brought some real positive energy to a program which had gone just 11-40 over the previous four seasons. That said, the lack of depth on the defensive side of the ball reared its ugly head again last Saturday against UNLV. Hawaii twice had a chance to protect a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter but in each case, UNLV was able to put together long TD drives. Will the Hawaii “D” be able to contain Air Force’s triple-option in this one? Likely not but an offense led by a “coming of age” QB in Dru Brown, along with a solid running game, one can expect Hawaii to ‘hang around.’ Hawaii was more than a TD favorite last week but here, the Rainbow Warriors are getting more than two TDs. Take the points.

Central Florida vs. UConn Over-Under Football Pick from Freddy Wills: October 22nd 2016

CENTRAL FLORIDA VS. UCONNCentral Florida vs. UConn
Over-Under Football Pick: Under 48 points (October 22nd 2016)
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I like the under in this game between UCF and Connecticut.  The under is 33-16-2 in UCF’s last 51 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  That’s the key as Central Florida is a run first team running it 61% of the time and 65% on the road.  Central Florida does not trust their group of QB’s who have 1 TD and 2 INT’s on the road and that’s where Uconn has issues on their defense.  If you can pass the ball well then you are a threat to score a lot of points against Uconn.

I think this sets up well for the under as well looking at the fact that both teams come off misleading totals in their last game.  Uconn played South Florida and the score was 14-3 at the half, but the final ended up being 42-27 with a ton of points scored in the second half.  Central Florida meanwhile played Temple last week and had 25 points despite only 296 yards of offense while going 2-12 on third down.

Both teams are very good in third down defense, and red zone defense which makes me feel comfortable that there will be a lot of field goals.  Central Florida struggles to score points when they can’t run the ball.  Sure they scored 53 and 47 on East Carolina and Florida International on the road, but both of those teams struggle stopping the run while Uconn is ranked 55th in adjusted run defense.  Uconn has really only given up big rushing games to Navy, a challenge in itself and South Florida who has a top 10 rushing attack with a dual threat QB.  Uconn even kept Houston’s attack in check.