Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
College Football Point Spread Pick: Rutgers +6 (October 15th 2016)
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Join John Ryan this Saturday with his 35* SEC Game of the Month backed by his famous SIM Algorithm, a winning proven system, and strong fundamental analysis!
10* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Illinois in BIG 10 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by less than 3 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 9* play on the line and a 1* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-13 over the last 10 seasons good for 75.5% winners and made 25.7 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) – with a horrible scoring defense – allowing 35 or more points/game, after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Illinois is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992; 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after 4 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992; 23-48 ATS (-29.8 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. Rutgers is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Fundamental Discussion Points Illinois and Rutgers will meet for the first time as Big Ten foes after each won at home in a pair of non-conference games in 2005 and 2006. Rutgers will play very angry in this game after their poor performances this year and take it out on a lowly Illinois team. Take Rutgers with the points.
Texas San Antonio vs. Rice
College Football Pick: Texas San Antonio -3 (October 15th 2016)
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Last week UTSA BEAT me with my Hidden Gem premium play as they hammered and beat the hell out of a good Southern Miss team as a 14 point pup at home, as they racked up 55 points is a shocker. Remember this same UTSA almost beat Arizona State a few weeks ago but struggled at ODU the week before this game. Perhaps Southern Miss was looking ahead to LSU this week, but UTSA dominated that game and traded punches on the scoreboard after getting out to a huge lead.
Interesting that Southern Miss waxed this same Rice team two weeks ago and the Road Runners just beat So. Miss huh? Rice allows a NCAA Ranked #128, 7.5 yards per play – that is unreal, and UTSA can rack up some yards and points. Even though this game is at Rice, it is a short road trip and the Roadrunners look to build off a huge win in a game where they dominated start to finish, as I watched it intensely as I tore up a ticket. I was wrong about the Road Runners and that is the only positive you get with losing wagers, you learn and they are a good team who is well coached. Rice is 0-5 SU and simply deplorable on defense and off a bye week will not help. I see no let down spot here for UTSA on a very short number. Road games are always tricky but Rice does not have an intimidating home field by any stretch and not much of an advantage in this situation.
- Thursday – Friday Action and Saturday 2 Dime Top Play Hidden Gem out NOW and a Triple Header coming as well and another Sunday 5 Play Bonus Card, coming off a 4-2 rebound week in the NFL.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Georgia Bulldogs
College Football Pick: Georgia -14 (October 15th 2016)
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Georgia was impressive in a 28-14 win at South Carolina on Sunday, and they host the struggling Vanderbilt Commodores in Week 7. Vanderbilt has been brutal offensively, ranking 121st nationally scoring just 19 points per game. Any success they’ve had on offense has come on the ground, and they should find it tough sledding on the road at Georgia. The Bulldogs absolutely stuffed South Carolina last week, allowing the Gamecocks to run for just 30 yards on 26 carries.
Nick Chubb came into this season as a Heisman candidate, but he has been plagued by injuries. He really got going in the win over the Gamecocks though, running for 121 yards and two TDs. He could be in line for a big day against a Vandy defense that hasn’t had much success stopping the run this season. The Commodores allowed Georgia Tech to run for 289 yards and three TDs in a 38-7 loss at Atlanta a few weeks ago. I expect a similar result here against Georgia.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. NC State Wolfpack
Football Over-Under Pick: Under 65 points (October 8th 2016)
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I’m going to make a play on the under here. Much has been talked about Notre Dame’s bad defensive play and I’m not going to say they are a good defensive team by any means, but they have better talent than what their numbers suggest. Last week after Brian Kelly fired his DC, the Irish held Syracuse to 3-for-15 on 3rd downs. While Syracuse scored 33 points, 27 of those were in the first half. They only scored 6 points in the 2nd half. I expect continued improvement from Notre Dame here on the defensive side of the ball. N.C. State has yet to play a note-worthy team and I think it’s safe to say that Notre Dame has much better defensive talent than ECU, Wake Forest, Old Dominion and William & Mary.
In normal conditions, this total is about right, but the field conditions are expected to be wet and windy from Hurricane Matthew. The Rain is going to start Friday and carry through all day Saturday. At kickoff, winds are expected to be around 20 MPH with possible stronger gust. Both teams rely more on the pass than the run and this wind should alter their game plan a bit and we should see more of a grind it our running game with more time off the clock.
NC State’s punter is averaging 49.7 yards a punt and has had only 1 punt returned this year (6 yards). NC State has a solid run defense and can keep Notre Dame contained on the ground.
NC State plays at a slower pace, ranked 97th in adjusted pace. Notre Dame is middle of the pack ranked 69th in adjusted pace. I don’t think either team will be in a hurry to run at a fast pace here. There should be more importance of ball security and making sure the correct play is called. A loss today will hurt Notre Dame as coach Kelly is under the gun and I strongly feel like he puts together a gameplan that fits his players. A shootout is not the answer. Look for a game played in the upper 20’s with a final score in the 27-24 range. (1* Under the Total)
Saturday is loaded with FIVE Plays in College Football including my GAME of the WEEK which comes in the SEC, my most knowledgeable conference. Hop on board and let’s make some $$ and smash the books and get paid!