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Minnesota vs. Purdue College Football Pick from Teddy Covers: October 10th 2015

Teddy Covers - College Football PickMinnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
College Football Pick: Purdue +3.5 (October 10th 2015)
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The betting markets play very close attention to NFL injuries, with the lines swinging fairly significantly on gameday based on player availability. But in college football, the betting markets only seem to react significantly when there is a quarterback injury that sidelines an effective starter.

That’s how we see lines like this one, with Minnesota as road favorites as they travel to West Lafayette to take on Purdue this Saturday.

The Gophers have a third year starter at QB in Mitch Leidner. But Leidner has been completely ineffective – only 91 completed passes for 950 yards and four TD’s in their first five games of the season – because of the injuries surrounding him. He’s not fully healthy either. Head coach Jerry Kill: “He’s been beat up. You get hit — and we’ve been beat up on the offensive line — and he’s taken some shots. And you take those kinds of shots, your body wears down. So it’s been tough on him. I don’t think there’s any question about it.”

20 Gopher players missed practice on Wednesday due to injuries, including four starting offensive linemen and secondary studs Briean Boddy-Calhoun and Damarious Travis. Kill’s quote speaks volumes about why the Gophers have no business as road chalk at Purdue: “I’ve never seen anything like it in my 32 years of coaching. Just one of those years. What do you do? Like I tell our guys, ‘You can’t get down. You just coach them.’ We’re going to play with some young players probably, and that’s part of it. They’ll have to grow up, and we’ll be better down the road for it.”

Purdue hung tough with Minnesota last year, leading most of the game before a late Gopher field goal gave Minnesota a one point victory as 12.5 point favorites. And there’s no reason to think the Boilermakers can’t hang tough again, with frosh QB David Blough rallying the team from a 24-0 deficit at Michigan State last week, giving Purdue a legitimate spark. And with frosh RB Markell Jones coming off his best game — 157 rushing yards against the Spartans elite defense – a Purdue team that hasn’t had much to be excited about in recent seasons has some legitimate positive momentum right now. Expect the outright upset! Take Purdue.

Army vs. Duke Football Over-Under Pick from Matt Fargo: October 10th 2015

Matt Fargo - College Football PickArmy Black Knights vs. Duke Blue Devils
Over-Under Football Pick: Over 47 points (October 10th 2015)
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Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week’s games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for this game. Duke is off to a 3-2 start this season as the offense has been inconsistent but the defense has picked up the slack by allowing just 269.8 ypg and 10.6 ppg, good for 9th and 5th in the country respectively. Because of the stop unit, the Blue Devils have stayed below the total in all five of their games this season. This is not a particularly good matchup however for another low scoring game as the offense should have no problem scoring a bunch here. The offense was held to 10 points three games back against Northwestern and nine points against Boston College last time out and those are two of the top three scoring defenses in the country. In comparison, Army is ranked 82nd in scoring defense so Duke can get back to normal here. The Black Knights have had a tough luck season as they are 1-4 with the four losses coming by 2, 5, 3 and 6 points with the last coming against Penn St. Even though the schedule has been pretty difficult, they are averaging a solid 27.6 ppg so even coming close to that here will push this one way over as we can expect Duke to get its fair share of points. The over is 7-2-1 in the Blue Devils last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while the over is 11-5 in the Black Knights last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Play Over (321) Duke Blue Devils/(322) Army Black Knights