Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Betting Pick: Oklahoma -7 points (November 28th 2015)
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The Oklahoma Sooners got great news when it was announced that Baker Mayfield passed the concussion tests following last week’s win over TCU. This team goes as he goes, and it’s going to be a huge lift to have him back out there and healthy. I see no reason the Sooners won’t roll the Cowboys by more than a touchdown to cover this 7-point spread Saturday night with him in the lineup.
Oklahoma certainly looks the part of the best team in the Big 12 here down the stretch. It is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall with five of those wins coming by double-digits. I strongly believe it would have been all six if Mayfield hadn’t gotten hurt. The Sooners led TCU 30-13 heading into the fourth quarter before giving up 16 unanswered points to win by a final of 30-29.
But don’t forget how dominant this team has been. It beat Kansas State 55-0 on the road, rolled Texas Tech 63-27 at home, took care of Kansas 62-7 on the road, blew out Iowa State 52-16 at home, and also went on the road and beat Baylor 44-34. That win over the Bears was the most impressive because they outgained them by 95 yards. They also outgianed TCU by 146 yards last week, and they have actually outgained 10 of their 11 opponents this season.
The numbers certainly show that the Sooners are an elite team. They are outscoring opponents by 24.1 points per game and ouotgaining them by 202.6 yards per game this season. They average 6.9 yards per play offensively and only give up 4.6 yards per play defensively. That’s really impressive when you consider their opponents only yield 5.9 yards per play defensively and average 6.0 yards per game offensively. So they are outgaining teams by 2.3 yards per play on the season.
Oklahoma State is very fortunate to be 10-1 right now. It averages 6.5 yards per play against opponents that allow 6.1 per play, and it allows 5.4 per play against opponents that average 5.8 per play. Those are still solid numbers, but they are nowhere near what Oklahoma has done. The Cowboys are outgaining teams by 71 yards per game this season. Again, that’s solid, but nothing compared to the Sooners, who have also played the tougher schedule this year.
Common opponents really tell the story for me. They have both faced the same eight teams this season. Oklahoma is 7-1 against them, outscoring them by 26 points per game and outgaining them by 207 yards per game. Oklahoma State is also 7-1 against them, but only outscoring them by 11 points per game and outgaining them by only 21 yards per game.
Against the two best teams Oklahoma State has played this season in TCU and Baylor, it was thoroughly dominated in the box score in both of those games. It was outgained by 207 yards by TCU and gave up 663 yards of total offense to the Horned Frogs. It was also outgained by 259 yards by Baylor while giving up 700 total yards to the Bears. This Oklahoma State defense is way overrated, so look for Mayfield and company to have a huge day in this one.
The Sooners are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 meetings with the Cowboys. They want revenge from a fluky 35-38 (OT) home loss to the Cowboys last year. They led that game 35-21 with under five minutes to play but allowed a 92-yard punt return with 45 seconds left that forced overtime. But the Sooners didn’t have nearly as much at stake last year, and they won’t be taking the Cowboys lightly this season due to the situation.
Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in its previous game this season. The Sooners are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. loss. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Oklahoma State. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.
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