Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen
Point Spread Pick: Navy -6 (December 10th 2016)
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I’m laying the points with Navy on Saturday. Army began the season with three straight wins, but won just three of their final eight with two wins coming against Lafayette and Morgan State. In fact, take those two out-manned programs out of the mix and Army was not only 1-5 to close the season, but failed to score more than 21 points in any of the other six games. The offense averaged only 318 yards on 4.79 yards per play in the six outings and the QB situation is not ideal thanks to injuries. Meanwhile, the defense was been riddled for 510 yards rushing on 5.4 yards per carry in two games prior to Morgan State.
We went against Navy last time out and cashed when Temple put the screws to the Middies, but we believe they own the matchups to continue their domination in this series. Navy enters on a 13-5 ATS run as a favorite and 7-0 ATS when laying 3 1/2 to 10 points over the last couple of seasons. Navy’s laying the least amount of points to Army since 2005 and lost ATS the last two meetings as favorites of 21 1/2 and 16 1/2 points, winning outright, but falling short of big spreads. This year’s number is much more doable. We’re laying the points with Navy on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Football Point Spread Pick: Florida +24 (December 3rd 2016)
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John Ryan’s proven algorithm a 50* TITAN, which is the strongest possible grade any game can possess. He is 4-1 ATS this season w/50* Titans. Currently 84-57 (60%) over his last 145 CFB picks! $1,000/game bettors have made $23,090 since September 12, 2015 by following his advice!
10* graded play on Florida(327) as they take on Alabama(328) in SEC action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Florida will lose this game by less than 21 points.
Technical Discussion Points: The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Florida is a solid 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game; 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games; 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. Alabama is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Fundamental Discussion Points: Florida takes on Alabama in the SEC Championship Game getting a big number for a reason. The Gator Defense has been solid all year giving up only 14.6 points per game and we expect the Defense to play well enough to keep them hanging around in this one. The key will be to keep Alabama QB Jalen Hurts from beating them with his legs. Austin Appleby is a below average QB but he does not make many plays or mistakes and that will be a big part in keeping this one within the large spread listed in this one. We look for the Gators to be chomping for a little while in this one.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners
College Football Pick: Under 77.5 points (December 3rd 2016)
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With all due respect to the offenses, which are obviously both very capable, this number is awfully high. To give some perspective, last season’s meeting had an O/U line of 62.5. The previous year, the O/U line for a game between these teams had an O/U line of 57.5. Granted, both those lines turned out to be too low, as each game finished above the total.
The Cowboys limited TCU to a mere six points last time out, a dominant defensive effort. The Sooners weren’t as stingy but weren’t terrible defensively either; they held WVU to 28 points. Not bad considering that the Mountaineers came in averaging 32.6 ppg and 506.8 ypg at home.
Even including the 12/6/14 meeting between these teams here, which produced 71 points, the Sooners have seen the “under” go 16-4 their last 20 games played in the month of December. A look at some more recent history reveals that the Cowboys were underdogs of greater than a field goal three times this season. All three of those games (at TCU, vs. WVU and at Baylor) fell below the number by double-digits. Consider the Under.