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Oregon vs. Utah Over-Under Football Pick from Sean Murphy: November 19th 2016

College Football Over-Under Pick: Under 70.5 points (November 19th 2016)

While most are expecting a shootout in this matchup on Saturday, I believe the total will prove to be too high.

Oregon has endured an awful season. The Ducks offense has actually gotten worse as the season has gone on, and I don’t see this as a favorable matchup, noting that Oregon scored just 20 points at home against Utah in last year’s meeting. Of course, that was a much stronger offense. The Utes are coming off a blowout win on the road against a hapless Arizona State squad last week. I do expect them to face some resistance here, and I think it’s important to keep in mind that Utah hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut this season. Even against a weak defensive squad like Oregon, there’s no guarantee the ‘good’ Utes offense shows up.

I don’t believe the Utes are interested in getting involved in a shootout here. They should be able to control proceedings for most of the game and that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest than the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the under (8*).

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Brandon Lee betting the Ragin’ Cajuns +23 over the Bulldogs on November 19th 2016

UL LAFAYETTE VS. GEORGIA BETTINGUL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Football Betting Prediction: UL-Lafayette +23 points (November 19th 2016)

I had Georgia +10.5 last week in their outright win over Auburn and I said they had a great chance of winning that game. That was a massive win for the Bulldogs to close out SEC play. Most are going to just skip over their game this week against Sun Belt foe Louisiana-Lafayette, but I think there’s some great value here on the Ragin’ Cajuns. This is a massive letdown spot for Georgia off that big win and their even bigger in-state rivalry game against Georgia Tech on deck. I also think it’s a tough matchup for the Bulldogs, especially when it comes to running up the score and covering this big spread.

Georgia’s offense is really dependent on the running game and that plays right into the hands of Lafayette’s defense, which comes in ranked 20th in the country against the run, allowing just 118.3 ypg and just 3.0 yards/carry. I know the Ragin’ Cajun’s offense isn’t great, but I think they can do some damage here with the Bulldogs not 100% locked in on this game. Keep in mind Georgia hasn’t won a game all season by more than 14-points and that includes a home game against Nicholls State (won 26-24). Give me the Ragin’ Cajuns +23!

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NCAA Football: Teddy Covers betting the Rams -4.5 over the Lobos on November 19th 2016

LOBOS VS. RAMS BETTINGNew Mexico Lobos vs. Colorado State Rams
College Football Pick: Colorado State -4.5 (November 19th 2016)

My clients and I have cashed back-2-back winning bets supporting Colorado State over the past two weeks.  Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up.  Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities:

Here’s what Head Coach Mike Bobo said last week, talking about his team’s mentality following the bye: “It’s leadership of your football team, starting with me of setting the tone in today’s meetings and practice. And anything less than a championship practice is not acceptable. And we don’t accept it. I’d rather it come from the players than me. If it’s coming from the players, then we’ve got a chance to finish strong. If it’s coming from us, it’ll be a fight. This is the time of year where you’ve played eight games, you know, it’s a grind. And the mentally tough guys are the ones that are going to push through and have success late in the season. And that’s what I expect out of this football team.”  The fact that the Rams came out and played a complete game against Fresno speaks volumes about that leadership.

Colorado State has been a solid under-the-radar moneymaker for their supporters, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a very sluggish first few weeks.  It’s worth noting that they are coming off their three best offensive games of the year, including a pair of blowout wins and a hotly contested, spread covering loss as a road underdog.   This team is clearly an undervalued commodity in the markets right now, even after their recent ATS successes.

The Lobos defense is not equipped to shut down Colorado State’s balanced attack.  Yes, New Mexico is hot too, winners of five straight games, their longest streak in more than a decade.  But every one of those wins (with one exception) came against a true bottom feeder – the Mountain West is not exactly loaded in 2016.  I give Bob Davie enormous credit for what he’s been able to accomplish in Albuquerque, but this back-to-back road game situation after a tight, physical three point win at Utah State last week is NOT a good spot for the road underdog.

Colorado State has won each of the last six meetings between these two teams, with the Lobos notching only one pointspread cover in defeat in those games.  The Rams put up 58+ twice in the last three years against the Lobos defense – New Mexico can handle one dimensional offenses fairly well, but balanced attacks consistently give them trouble.  Look for the Rams to clinch bowl eligibility with a relatively comfortable victory on Sonny Lubick Field Saturday Night.  Take Colorado State.