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SMU vs. East Carolina NCAAF Betting Pick from Teddy Covers: November 12th 2016

SMU VS. EAST CAROLINA BETTINGSMU Mustangs vs. East Carolina Pirates
NCAAF Betting Pick: SMU +7 points (November 12th 2016)
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Less than a month ago, Chad Morris’s Mustangs were in a world of hurt.  Starting QB Matt Davis was knocked out for the year, and the offense couldn’t get going under his replacement, redshirt frosh Ben Hicks. Meanwhile, their defense got lit up in back-2-back ugly losses against TCU and Temple & could’t stop Tulsa in an OT loss.

But the Tulsa game marked a turning point for the coach who designed Clemson’s offense and was one of the hottest coaching commodities out there when he took this job prior to the 2015 season.   SMU hung 40 in that game, and Hicks was a big reason why. He followed that up with a strong showing in a shockingly easy upset over Houston the following week.  Then, on the road at Tulane, Hicks (a Top 50 QB prospect coming out of high school  — the guy Morris wanted for this job) enjoyed his first 300 yard passing effort as a collegiate quarterback as he rallied the Mustangs from behind on the road in a real flat spot at Tulane.

Hicks is playing much, much better than he was a month ago.  RB Braedon West is averaging 5.5 yards per carry.  WR ‘s Courtland Southerland and James Proche will be two of the top playmakers on the field here.  And the much maligned SMU defense has improved as well; particularly against the pass, sealing the game at Tulane with a game ending interception just one week after shutting down Houston’s Greg Ward.

But with all of that mid-season momentum, the Mustangs took a big step back last week, blown out at home by Memphis.  Head coach Chad Morris: “This was the worst we’ve played this year.  It’s disappointing as a coach that we gave that performance. We didn’t play well in all phases.”

Morris basically read his team the riot act after the game, making it very clear that he would not tolerate ‘quitting’.  QB Hicks concurred: “We just didn’t have the same edge that we had the last couple of weeks. We didn’t have a good practice, the focus wasn’t very good, and I think it carried over. I just don’t think we understand how to win. I think we felt like we’d arrived. Winning two games and then coming out and laying a goose egg like that is embarrassing.”

Expect SMU’s ‘A’ game here, and that’s bad news for an East Carolina team that has been a real moneyburner, with only one SU win and cover since Week 2.  They lost on this field by 18 as favorites against Tulsa, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Scott Frost’s squad comes up on the short end of the scoreboard again here.  Take SMU.

Get more SMU Mustangs and East Carolina Pirates betting predictions from Teddy Covers each weekend at Touthouse.com

LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Over-Under Football Pick: November 12th 2016

LSU VS. ARKANSAS BETTINGLSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Over-Under Football Pick: Under 46 points (November 12th 2016)
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Coming off a bye week, the Razorbacks put forth their most impressive effort of the season in a 31-10 smack down of Florida last week. The Arkansas defense, which looked like it was asleep at the proverbial wheel  the previous week in a 56-3 loss to Auburn, was over powering against the Gators, allowing just 12 rushing yards. Coach Brett Bielema used the extra time to revamp his starting 11 on the defensive side of the ball, and it looks like it worked wonders. Meanwhile, LSU lost a hard fought 10-0 decision to Alabama, but once again showcased a D, that is on par with the best of the SEC. With that said, look for a game that features alot of clock moving old fashioned grinding football.
LSU is 8-0 UNDER in all games this season. Orgeron is 16-6 UNDER L/22 after playing a game at home in all games he has coached.

All CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 like the Razorbacks – average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game have gone under 30 of 36 times in the following game.
Play UNDER 1/2 unit comp selection

Stanford Cardinal vs. Oregon Ducks Point Spread Pick from Will Rogers: November 12th 2016

STANFORD VS. OREGON FOOTBALL BETTINGStanford Cardinal vs. Oregon Ducks
NCAAF Point Spread Pick: Oregon +3 (November 12th 2016)
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The set-up: Stanford opened the season ranked No. 8 in the AP’s preseason poll and Oregon began at No. 24. No one should have been surprised, as Stanford had gone 66-15 the previous six years, appearing in major bowls (BCS or New Year’s Six) five times. Oregon’s success had gone back further, having previously won 10 or more games each season from 2006 through 2014, sporting a combined 80-14 (.851) record. As the teams get set to meet Saturday in Eugene, Stanford is 6-3 (4-3 in the Pac 12 North) and Oregon 3-6 (1-5 in the Pac 12 North).

Stanford: Injuries have kept Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey out of the Heisman Trophy race but he did rush for a season-high 199 yards in Stanford’s 26-15 home win last Saturday over Oregon State. He ranks fourth nationally in all-purpose yards at 190.1 per game but with 973 rushing yards and 287 yards on KO returns, he’ll fall well short of the 2,019 rushing and 1,070 KO return yards he produced in the 2015 season. QB Keller Chryst threw for just 60 yards last week against Oregon State in his second career start but added 83 on the ground, as the Cardinal ran the ball on their final 29 plays from scrimmage. He’s no Andrew Luck, or for that matter, a Kevin Hogan. Stanford’s offense ranks 120th in scoring (19.9 PPG) and 123rd in total offense (317.8 YPG). However, the defense is top-notch, allowing 18.6 PPG (15th) on 345.9 YPG (22nd).

Oregon: The Ducks opened the 2016 season with back-to-back home wins of 53-28 over UC-Davis and 44-26 over Virginia. However, Oregon followed with back-to-back three-point losses to Nebraska (35-32) and Colorado (41-38). It marked the first time the school had lost consecutive times, ending a 70-game streak! Adding insult to injury, Oregon followed with three more losses, extending its losing streak to five in a row. Following a 54-35 home win over ASU, Oregon lost 45-20 at USC. Oregon may have averaged 34.6 PPG in its five-game slide but that hardly helps when a team’s defense allows 49.8 PPG.

The pick: Like Stanford, Oregon has turned to a new starting QB in freshman Justin Herbert. However, after playing well in his first two starts, he threw for only 162 yards and a touchdown against USC while facing constant pressure. The Ducks also averaged just 2.8 YPC, as Tony Brooks-James started in place of an ineffective Royce Freeman. Yes, Oregon’s defense is a sieve, allowing 42.6 PPG (126th) on 535.2 YPG (127th) but Stanford’s offense will not likely be able to really capitalize on that. Stanford’s stop-unit is terrific but Oregon has averaged 42.0 PPG here at Autzen Stadium. Ducks quack louder than the Cardinal in this one.