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SMU Mustangs vs. Navy Midshipmen College Football Point Spread Pick: November 11th 2017

SMU Mustangs vs. Navy Midshipmen
College Football Point Spread Pick: Navy -4.5 (November 11th 2017)
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Navy is off 3 straight losses, but two have been against top 25 teams Memphis, and Central Florida and the third against Temple who had an extra week to prepare against the triple option with a defensive minded coach.  SMU just fell to Central Florida at home by only 7 points where they gave everything they had.  I expect a bit of a hang over here on the road against a Navy team that is desperate for a win.

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This would normally be a premium play, but it’s hard to tell if Navy is distracted this year by the Showtime Series following them around. The -7 TO margin is the big reason why they are not undefeated at this point, but they still can run the ball, and SMU has really struggled to stop it.  The last two years SMU has given up 16 rushing TD’s and nearly 1,000 rushing yards in 2 games against Navy in 31-75 loss, and a 14-55 loss.

SMU has given up 200+ yards five times this year and that is against teams that throw the ball 50% of the time or more.  Here Navy should get their 400 control the game and get out with a 7+ point win.  I actually don’t even think SMU will be able to stop Navy and force a punt.  This one could get ugly.

College Football Pick: Schule betting the Spartans +16.5 points on November 11th 2017

Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
College Football Pick: MSU +16.5 (November 11th 2017)
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The Buckeyes loss to Iowa last week effectively ends any realistic hope that they will return to the College Football Playoffs. They try to pick up the pieces this week, hosting rivals Michigan State. The Spartans are now 5-1 in the BIG10, and the winner of this game is likely heading to the BIG10 Championship Game. The bookmakers still have the Buckeyes favored to win this game by three scores, but I don’t see any evidence to justify that line. After giving up a combined 93 points in their last two games, I think the Buckeyes defense has been exposed. In their previous seven games, they had played just two teams with a .500 or better record. One of those was a 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma, and the other was a 38-7 win over Army. In a total of four games versus teams .500 or better, they are 2-2 but have been outscored 131-117. History tells us that these two teams have been rather evenly matched over the last decade. In six games since 2011, not one of those games was decided by more than 12 points. Four of those six games were decided by three points or less, including a 17-16 Buckeyes win at East Lansing last year. Ohio State was a 20 point favorite in that game, and they lost outright as a 14.5 point home favorite the year before. There is no doubt in my mind that this is an inflated spread, and I’ll take the points.