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Louisville vs. Georgia Bowl Game Betting Pick from Jack Jones: December 30th 2014

Jack Jones - Bowl Game PickLouisville Cardinals vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Bowl Game Pick: Louisivlle +7 (December 30th 2014)
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I don’t believe there is as big of a difference between Georgia and Louisville as this 7-point spread would indicate. I actually view them as pretty much equals on a neutral field. They are both 9-3 and both solid teams from their respective conferences, but I believe Georgia is being overvalued here because it plays in the SEC.

The Bulldogs just haven’t shown me enough to warrant laying nearly a touchdown to the Cardinals. They benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules of all the SEC teams. They managed to avoid the top teams from the West in Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and LSU, and they still could not win the East. I believe the letdown from not winning the East will spill over into this bowl game as it is a much lesser bowl than the Bulldogs were hoping to play in coming into the season.

Louisville, on the other hand, didn’t have a ton of expectations coming into the year with the departure of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and head coach Charlie Strong. Well, all it has done is prove that it belongs in the ACC in its first year in the league. It went toe-to-toe with several of the top teams from the conference and really had a fine season in getting to nine wins. It will certainly be motivated to prove itself against a team from the SEC in the bowl game.

Louisville outgained 10 of the 12 opponents it faced this season. Its only losses came to Florida State (31-42), Clemson (17-23) and Virginia (21-23). It led Florida State for most of that game before the Seminoles came back let to win like they have done all season. Those losses to Clemson and Virginia both on the road by a combined eight points are not bad at all, either. So, essentially the Cardinals have had a chance to win all 12 games they have played in this year.

They also have some wins against fellow bowl teams that have been very impressive. They beat Miami 31-13 at home in the opener, they beat NC State 30-18 at home, Boston College 38-19 on the road, and Notre Dame 31-28 on the road. They played a supremely difficult schedule this year compared to most of the other ACC teams, and they did very well for themselves.

What has been most impressive about this nine-win season from Louisville has been the fact that it has gone through three different quarterbacks. Once Will Gardner went down, Reggie Bonnafon stepped in an did a fine job. Then, Kyle Bolin replaced an injured Bonnafon in the season finale against Kentucky. He went 21 of 31 for 381 yards and three touchdowns with one interception to lead the Cardinals to a 44-40 victory.

Both Bolin and Bonnafon are healthy heading into the bowl season. Louisville is one of the only teams to have a quarterback controversy leading up to its bowl game. Bobby Petrino has yet to name a starter, and that has allowed practices to be even more competitive. I’m not concerned about who he chooses to play quarterback against Georgia because both have proven they are capable starters on an offense that averages 32.6 points per game.

The real reason to want to back the Cardinals is their defense, which was dominant under Charlie Strong in recent years, and has remained that way in 2014. The Cardinals only give up 20.5 points and 294.1 yards per game to rank 7th in the country in total defense. Opposing offenses average 25.9 points and 367 yards per game, so they are holding opponents to 5.4 points and 73 yards per game less than their season averages.

This happens to be a great matchup for the Louisville defense as well. Georgia’s strength is its rushing attack, which produces 255 yards per game on the ground compared to just 200 through the air. Well, the Cardinals are suffocating against the run. They give up just 95 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry. There is some serious talent along this Louisville defensive line with a couple of future NFL draft picks.

Louisville is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years. Louisville is 6-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. The Cardinals went 5-1 ATS on the road this season where they held opponents to just 17.0 points and 273.5 yards per game. Louisville is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents. Bet Louisville in the Belk Bowl Tuesday.

No. 3 Ranked College Football Handicapper in 2014-15! Remember, Jack Jones was also the No. 3 CFB Capper from 2012-13! He has put together an INSANE 217-159 NCAAF Run that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in OVER $40,000! That includes a PERFECT 4-0 Bowl Run since Saturday! Jack releases his 20* Notre Dame/LSU Music City Bowl No-Brainer as his featured top play Tuesday! He pinpoints the winning side in this one behind a PROVEN 89% System L3 Years in his analysis! His selection is GUARANTEED to get the money or Wednesday college football is ON JACK!

Texas vs. Arkansas Bowl Point Spread Pick from Freddy Wills: December 29th 2014

Freddy Wills - Bowl Game PickTexas vs. Arkansas
Bowl Point Spread Pick: Arkansas -7 (December 29th 2014)
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I’ll take Arkansas here because they are going to be able to win in the trenches. Arkansas played the #5 hardest schedule this season which pretty much came with playing in the SEC West, but this team was pretty damn competitive against some very good opponents including Alabama. Texas just does not have a dominating ability to run the ball or stop the ball and Arkansas defense is very under rated. Arkansas run defense will be the key here and in wins they have allowed 2.59 yards per carry to 4.50 in wins. I don’t see Texas being able to run the ball well in this game as they have been inconsistent all year long.

The way you beat Arkansas is with a good passing team. LSU could not do a thing, because their QB could not take advantage, but the teams they lost to on the schedule all had capable passing attacks. From Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Miss State and even Missouri can be hot and cold, but in this game we can not trust Tryone Swopes. This defense shut out LSU and Ole Miss and I look for them to really keep this Texas team in check. More importantly Texas was +9 turnover margin in wins and -10 in losses while Arkansas was negative turnover margin in just 2 of their 12 games. They ranked 28th in field position advantage while Texas ranked 114th. Texas had one of the worst special teams in the country and that should play a huge factor in a game that is figured to be low scoring. I expect the field to be tilted in Arkansas favor all day long.

Georgia -1 – Seems like a square play here, but.. Just who did Lousiville beat this year? Notre Dame when Notre Dame had all kinds of issues, but on paper these teams are closer and the sharps are grabbing Louisville for their defense. I just can’t see Louisville beating an SEC team. Georgia did have an easier than normal SEC schedule, but it still was more challenging than Louisville’s schedule. Georgia has just as good of a defense and in fact in adjusted opponent rankings they have a top 25 offense and defense. The only other team they faced that can claim that is Florida State who they got to face on a short week before they had solidified their running game. Georgia can run the ball and throw the ball and are by no means one dimensional. Louisville has Devonte Parker who is a next level talent at WR, but without him this offense struggled. Georgia and its coaching staff are clearly capable of taking away that weapon.

Finally Georgia has a big advantage in field position advantage ranking #1 this year and 11th in special teams efficiency while Louisville was 109th in field position and 88th in special teams. Combine that with the fact that Georgia only turned the ball over 11 times all year compared with Louisville’s 23 and we have an excellent shot at Georgia winning. Remember Louisville played a lot of bad offenses this year. Miami is the second best offense they faced and they faced them week 1 with a freshmen QB which is completely different than what Miami was at the end of the year. Georgia has Huston Mason a senior QB with a chip on his shoulder, and 2 elite RB’s who averaged over 6.5 ypc

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Maryland vs. Stanford Bowl Game Spread Pick from Joe Gavazzi: December 30th 2014

Joe Gavazzi - Bowl Game PickMaryland Terrapins vs. Stanford Cardinal
Bowl Game Pick: Maryland +14 (December 30th 2014)
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In another very contrary call, we will lineup with Maryland plus the generous points. The case for Stanford is clear. The Cardinal again fields one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 16 PPG on 4.2 defensive YPP. They also feature the No. 7 pass defense in the country. HC Shaw has excelled in this role, standing 14-7 ATS as double digit favorite, including 4-0 ATS this season with every victory by 17 or more. In a similar fashion, Maryland was blown out when facing superior teams on their schedule. Against Ohio St., Wisconsin and Michigan St., the Terps lost by an average of 47-15. Yet, Maryland was good enough to record consecutive 7-win seasons for 4th year HC Edsall. A season ending, come-from-ahead loss to Rutgers will leave this team hungry. As for Stanford, despite their own 7-5 SU record, they may be more satisfied with season ending victories over rival Cal (38-17) and at UCLA (31-10) as 6 point underdog. After appearing in 4 consecutive BCS games, where is the excitement about traveling from Palo Alto to Santa Clara for the Foster Farms Bowl against Maryland? These are the reasons why double digit Bowl dogs have covered 60% of the time in the last 14 years.