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Brandon Shively betting the Buckeyes -17 over the Cornhuskers on November 5th 2016

NEBRASKA VS. OHIO STATE FOOTBALL PICKNebraska Cornhuskers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
College Football Betting Pick: Ohio State -17 points (November 5th 2016)
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I like Ohio State in this game. The first thing that jumped out to me about the spread in this game is that Ohio State opened up -13.5 and quickly jumped to -17 where it has stayed steady throughout the week. This looks like a lot of points to the naked eye and 80% of the bets are on Nebraska according to data. It is very unusual to have that large of a percentage of bets on a double digit underdog. While the majority of the bets are on Nebraska, the line has held steady at -17 as of Friday morning. I am going to play the contrarian here and lay the points.

Nebraska’s perfect season is over with after a tough loss in overtime at Wisconsin. Now they have to try to regroup and go on the road again to face an Ohio State team that will try to mash the gas here. The Buckeyes have not covered in 4 consecutive games now which is very rare for any Urban Meyer team. This is a ‘night’ game and I expect the crowd to carry the momentum over to the players.

If there is a team overdue for a blowout win, it is Ohio State and they are catching Nebraska at a low point as the ‘Bubble Burst’ angle can be applied here.

I definitely think Ohio State is worth a closer look here. The majority of bettors have not taken the time to take a closer look. All they see is ‘Nebraska is getting 17 points’ and say that is too many. In a normal situation, maybe yes, but Ohio State will be the more motivated team here playing at home under the lights and I think we see a final score in the 38-13 range. (1* Ohio State)

Arkansas State vs. Georgia State Football Pick from Jimmy Boyd: November 3rd 2016

ARKANSAS STATE VS. GEORGIA STATE BETTING FOOTBALLArkansas State vs. Georgia State
College Football Pick: Arkansas State -4.5 points (November 3rd 2016)
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I think the value here is with the Red Wolves as a small road favorite. Even though Arkansas State has won 3 straight, they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve due to their 3-4 overall record.

The thing to keep in mind with their 0-4 start is they played a brutal schedule. They opened with Toledo at home and then played Auburn and Utah State on the road. They did lose 23-26 at home to Central Arkansas, which was a bad a loss. However, they beat themselves with 4 turnovers.

I also believe the fact that Georgia State has covered in 6 straight has this line lower than it should be. The key here is the Panthers just aren’t a great team. They have only outgained 2 teams all season. They rank 126th in total offense, averaging just 394.5 yards/game.

While they rank 58th in total defense, they can’t stop the run. Georgia State is 105th against the run, allowing 216.8 ypg. While Arkansas State is just 101st in rushing (141.1 ypg), that’s a misleading number. They have been much better in Sun Belt play, where they are averaging 221.7 ypg.

You also have to factor in the series between these two teams. Arkansas State has won all 3 meetings since the Panthers joined the conference in 2013. Last year they won by 14 points and the previous year at Georgia State they won by 42. This is by far the closest spread in the series an I don’t think it’s warranted.

Arkansas State’s strong start in conference play is also not a big surprise. The Red Wolves are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Sun Belt teams. Note they have won these by an average margin of 44.0 to 23.9.

We also find a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Panthers. We want to go against home teams who have lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 against a team that’s won 3 of their last 4. Teams in this spot are just 7-32 (18%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Arkansas State!

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Nebraska vs. Wisconsin College Football Spread Pick from Dave Price: October 29th 2016

NEBRASKA VS. WISCONSIN BETTING FOOTBALLNebraska Cornhuskers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Point Spread Pick: Nebraska +9 (October 29th 2016)
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The Wisconsin Badgers have gone 6-1 ATS through seven games this season.  They’ve been a covering machine, and now they are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers and the betting public because of it.  Keep in mind that they covered as underdogs in their four games against teams who were ranked in the Top 10 at the time they played them.  But now they’re being asked to lay 9 points here to an undefeated Nebraska team that is one of the most improved in the country.  And I can’t help but think the Badgers are about worn down after the gauntlet of a schedule they’ve played.  Plus they have some injury concerns here as leading tackler Jack Cichy is out for the season after suffering a pectoral injury against Iowa last week.  Also, NT Olive Sagapolu is expected to miss this game with an arm injury.  They are very think in the front seven right now due to attrition from these injuries.  I just think this game is going to be decided by a touchdown or less either way, so there’s value with the road dog Huskers here.  Take Nebraska.

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