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Will Rogers betting Hawaii as a 17 point underdog against Air Force on October 22nd 2016

HAWAII VS. AIR FORCEHawaii Warriors vs. Air Force Falcons
College Football Betting Pick: Hawaii +17 (October 22nd 2016)

Hawaii’s D is a problem but unlike LW when Hawaii was a TD favorite, the Rainbow Warriors are getting more than two TDs…

The set-up: Air Force (4-2 / 1-2 in MWC) started with four wins out of the gate in the 2016 season, including one against rival Navy. However, the Falcons fell 35-26 at Wyoming back on Oct. 8 and then last Saturday, lost a back-and-forth game in Dallas to New Mexico, 45-40. Hawaii travels to Colorado Springs to take on the Falcons, off a disappointing 41-38 loss to UNLV in Honolulu, dropping the team below .500 on the season and more damaging, to 2-1 and tied with UNLV, with both schools behind 2-0 San Diego State in the West Division of the MWC.

Hawaii: Dru Brown, a sophomore transfer from College of San Mateo, took over as starting QB in Hawaii’s MWC opener against Nevada, leading the Rainbow Warriors to back-to-back wins conference wins, 38-17 at home against Nevada and then 34-17 at San Jose State 34-17. (see above). He completing 76.5 percent of his passes for 509 yards with 4 TDs and zero INTs in those two contests. Brown played well again last Saturday vs. UNLV, completing 17 of 32 for 217 yards with two TDs and again, zero INTs. The running game had 229 yards (6.9) but in the end, the Hawaii defense let the team down, allowing 41 points on 535 yards. Hawaii comes into this contest allowing 38.9 PPG (122nd) on 487.6 YPG (120th).

Air Force: In stark contrast, the Falcons are allowing 24.8 PPG (49th) on 34.2 YPG (27th), while surpassing Hawaii (30.4 PPG) on offense as well. Air Force is averaging 34.3 PPG (38th) and owns the nation’s 6th-best running game, averaging 275.2 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The Falcons have controlled the all-time series, going 13-6-1 and have taken the last two meetings, including last year’s 58-7 win in Honolulu. It’s Troy Calhoun’s experience that gives the edge to the Falcons.

The pick: Troy Calhoun is in his 10th season at Air Force and has led the Falcons to eight bowls in his first nine. Meanwhile, Hawaii’s Nick Rolovich is in his first-ever season as a head coach. However, there can be little doubt that the former Hawaii QB has brought some real positive energy to a program which had gone just 11-40 over the previous four seasons. That said, the lack of depth on the defensive side of the ball reared its ugly head again last Saturday against UNLV. Hawaii twice had a chance to protect a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter but in each case, UNLV was able to put together long TD drives. Will the Hawaii “D” be able to contain Air Force’s triple-option in this one? Likely not but an offense led by a “coming of age” QB in Dru Brown, along with a solid running game, one can expect Hawaii to ‘hang around.’ Hawaii was more than a TD favorite last week but here, the Rainbow Warriors are getting more than two TDs. Take the points.

Central Florida vs. UConn Over-Under Football Pick from Freddy Wills: October 22nd 2016

CENTRAL FLORIDA VS. UCONNCentral Florida vs. UConn
Over-Under Football Pick: Under 48 points (October 22nd 2016)

I like the under in this game between UCF and Connecticut.  The under is 33-16-2 in UCF’s last 51 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  That’s the key as Central Florida is a run first team running it 61% of the time and 65% on the road.  Central Florida does not trust their group of QB’s who have 1 TD and 2 INT’s on the road and that’s where Uconn has issues on their defense.  If you can pass the ball well then you are a threat to score a lot of points against Uconn.

I think this sets up well for the under as well looking at the fact that both teams come off misleading totals in their last game.  Uconn played South Florida and the score was 14-3 at the half, but the final ended up being 42-27 with a ton of points scored in the second half.  Central Florida meanwhile played Temple last week and had 25 points despite only 296 yards of offense while going 2-12 on third down.

Both teams are very good in third down defense, and red zone defense which makes me feel comfortable that there will be a lot of field goals.  Central Florida struggles to score points when they can’t run the ball.  Sure they scored 53 and 47 on East Carolina and Florida International on the road, but both of those teams struggle stopping the run while Uconn is ranked 55th in adjusted run defense.  Uconn has really only given up big rushing games to Navy, a challenge in itself and South Florida who has a top 10 rushing attack with a dual threat QB.  Uconn even kept Houston’s attack in check.

Fresno State vs. Utah State College Football Pick from Matt Fargo: October 22nd 2015

UTAH STATE VS. FRESNO STATEFresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies
College Football Betting Pick: Utah State -16.5 points (October 22nd 2016)

Fresno St. has just one win this season and that was against Sacramento St. of the FCS. The Bulldogs have been competitive a couple of other times however in five of their six FBS games, they have been outgained by 132, 365, 164, 133 and 147 total yards so it has hardly been pretty. They have just one road win over their last 10 trips on the highway and they are coming into a bad situation here. Utah St. was supposed to contend in the Mountain Division of the MWC but it has dropped its first three conference games including a loss as a favorite at Colorado St. in their last game. The Aggies are coming off a bye week so they will be extra motivated to get into the win column and pile it on for that matter. Additionally, they have won and covered six straight games when playing with two weeks of rest. They are 2-1 at home and the lone loss came against Air Force in a game could have won as they outgained the Falcons by 88 yards but lost the turnover battle 2-0. Going back, they are 16-2 in their last 18 home games and covering this number should be a non-issue. Fresno St. is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games and going back further, the Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games following a home loss. Utah St. meanwhile is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after scoring 24 or more in the first half last game. Play (410) Utah St. Aggies

BYU Cougars vs. Boise State Broncos Point Spread Pick from Jack Jones: October 20th 2016

BYU VS. BOISE STATE BETTINGBYU Cougars vs. Boise State Broncos
Point Spread Pick: Boise State -6.5 points (October 20th 2016)

The BYU Cougars have played a gauntlet of a schedule to open the season. This will be their eighth consecutive week with a game, and they have to be about on fumes by now. They have faced the likes of Arizona, Utah, UCLA, WVU, Toledo, Michigan State and Mississippi State. No team has played a tougher slate to this point, and they desperately need a bye week.

Boise State is legitimately one of the best group of 5 teams in the country with its 6-0 start. And for the most part, the Broncos have made easy work of their opponents. The exception was a 31-28 win over Washington State in which they were actually outgained. But that win looks a lot better now with Washington State contending for a Pac 12 title.

I believe Boise State’s narrow 28-23 win over Colorado State last week is keeping this line lower than it should be. But that was a 28-3 game with five minutes to play. The Rams somehow scored three touchdowns in a matter of less than two minutes to make the final score closer than it really was.

The Broncos have outgained five of their six opponents and have put up impressive numbers this season. They are outscoring foes by 16.0 points per game and outgaining them by 96 yards per game. Their offense is averaging 68 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play more than their opponents give up on average, and their defense is giving up 9.3 points and 44 yards per game less than their opponents average.

BYU has actually been outgained in four of its seven games this season. The offense is only averaging 0.1 yards per play more than their opponents allow, and their defense is only giving up 0.3 yards per play less than their opponents average on offense.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the past five meetings, four of which have come in the last four seasons. The Broncos won their last home meeting with the Cougars by a final of 55-30 in 2014 as identical 6.5-point favorites. They outgained BYU by 315 total yards in that victory.

Boise State is 35-14 ATS in its last 49 games off three straight wins against conference opponents. The Broncos are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after forcing one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Boise State Thursday.

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