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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers Point Spread Pick: October 29th 2016

PENN STATE VS. PURDUE BETTINGPenn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Football Betting Pick: Purdue +13.5 points (October 29th 2016)

Purdue has been more competitive under interim coach Gerad Parker and catches Penn State in a monster letdown spot.

The Nittany Lions are on the road after just upsetting previously undefeated Ohio State at home last Saturday. It’s a double whammy for Penn State, which is 3-12 ATS after covering a game and 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 away contests.

Penn State hasn’t traveled in four weeks. This is only its third road game of the season. The Nittany Lions are 0-2 on the road giving up an average of 45 1/2 points to Pittsburgh and Michigan. Penn State is 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times it has been a road favorite and has lost straight-up seven straight times away from home under James Franklin.

Parker’s first game as interim head coach was last week. Purdue was a 24-point road ‘dog to then ninth-ranked and now seventh-ranked Nebraska. The Boilermakers played hard, led 14-10 at halftime and gave the Cornhuskers a scare before losing, 27-14. The Boilermakers have covered seven of the last eight times following a loss.

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Purdue has some decent skill position talent that can take advantage of Penn State giving up an average of 4.7 yards per rush and 203 yards rushing a game. The Boilermakers have been weak defensively, but received a boost from 345-pound tackle Lorenzo Neal, who recorded three tackles behind the line of scrimmage versus the Cornhuskers. Parker should have Purdue playing hard again this week with the team still alive for a bowl berth.

Washington State vs. Oregon State Football Betting Pick from Teddy Covers: October 29th 2016

WASHINGTON STATE VS. OREGON STATE BETTING FOOTBALLWashington State Cougars vs. Oregon State Beavers
College Football Pick: Oregon State +13 points (October 29th 2016)

My clients and I cashed in betting against Washington State as road chalk last week in a ‘closer than expected’ non-covering win at Arizona State.  And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Cougs are being priced appropriately as double digit road favorites as they travel to Corvallis on Saturday Night.

This is the wrong price range for Washington State in a very hostile road environment.  It’s also the wrong pointspread range for an Oregon State team that has been getting killed on the highway, but consistently playing competitive football at Reser Stadium.

There’s been one very consistent facet of Mike Leach coached teams, dating back to his tenure at Texas Tech – they have letdowns, not a coach who’s prone to guiding his team to extended winning streaks.  In his fifth season at Washington State, the Cougars current five game winning streak is the longest of the Leach era.  Only once during his extended tenure at Texas Tech did the Red Raiders win more than four in a row.

And when it comes to winning on the road by big margins, the Cougs again have a very limited track record.  They won five games away from home last year, none by more than a touchdown.  They didn’t win a road game by more than a touchdown the previous year either.  They lost at Boise in one road game this year, and barely hung on to beat Arizona State last week, notching only one win by margin on the highway (against collapsing, offensively challenged Stanford in the game where Christian McCaffrey got hurt and the Cardinal fell apart without him.

Oregon State has won three of the last five meetings against Wassou in SU fashion, and a fourth loss – Washington State’s last visit to Reser – was a competitive, seven point defeat.

This is not unusual for the Beavers.  In previous ‘step-up’ games at home this year, Gary Anderson’s squad covered the spread against Boise, pulled the outright upset over Cal and hung within five points of Utah in another spread covering defeat.

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And Oregon State has the appropriate game plan to keep the ball out of Cougs QB Luke Falk’s hands.  The Beavers do one thing well – they run the football, gaining 177 yards on 5.8 per carry against Washington’s elite defense last week.  They ran for 197 against Utah the previous week and 474 against Cal in their last win, at home, right here in Corvallis earlier this month.  Expect a competitive contest, not  a blowout.  Take the Beavers.

Brandon Shively betting Arkansas State -20 over UL Monroe on October 29th 2016

UL MONROE VS. ARKANSAS STATEUL Monroe Warhawks vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Football Betting Pick: Arkansas State -20 (October 29th 2016)

Arkansas State is a team that is being overlooked somewhat because of their 0-4 start. The Red Wolves have since won two straight games and are playing with a week of rest and looked like a completely different football team two weeks when they held South Alabama to 7 points in a 17-7 win. This bye week now marks their second of the season as they had a week off before playing Georgia Southern in a weekday game. I feel this is a very advantageous part of their schedule, playing their 4th consecutive home game and a spot they can dominate against a struggling UL-Monroe team. The Red Wolves last went on the road September 16th at Utah State.

Arkansas State is now 2-0 in the Sun Belt and looking to reclaim the championship after winning the Sun Belt title last year. The Red Wolves are 6-0 ATS the last 6 meetings against UL-Monroe. Arkansas State has won 80% of their games and covered 70% of the time from Game 6 and out over the last 5 years. They have now won 11 consecutive conference games after the win against South Alabama with ALL 11 wins coming by 10 points or more with an average score of 43-23. Arkansas State has finally got settled with a quarterback as that was their problem the first few games. Justice Hansen is an Oklahoma transfer who has a big arm. He has thrown 6 interceptions which is the one negative but I think he is the most talented QB in the Sun Belt and has turned the corner. The UL-Monroe secondary in not a threat and Hansen should have a field day behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country.

Monroe’s starting quarterback Garrett Smith is out with an injury. That leaves the job up to two freshmen quarterbacks and I can’t see either one doing much damage against a defense led by a bulk of juniors and seniors of Arkansas State. Chris Odom and Ja’von Rolland-Jones have combined for 8.5 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss, and 5 QB hurries. Look for them to take advantage of a shaky UL-Monroe offensive line and force the young Monroe quarterback(s) out of the pocket which will lead to some bad throws and mistakes. All of this should lead into a few turnovers that the Red Wolves should capitalize on.

The UL-Monroe defense is giving up 297 rushing yards a game and 6.2 yards per rush as this is a defense that only returned 3 starters from last year and lost their entire front 7 from 2015. They only have 3 interceptions on the year They have not covered their last 4 games and are in a tough spot here playing their 5th road game of their last 7 games. It’s been a tough go for 1st year coach Matt Viator and his coordinators who all came from FCS schools.

  • Arkansas State has put up an average of 512 yards of offense the last 4 meetings, with an average final score of 43-18. (1* Arkansas State)