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Nevada vs. Boise State College Football Pick from Stephen Nover: November 4th 2017

Nevada Wolfpack vs. Boise State Broncos
College Football Pick: Nevada +22 points (November 4th 2017)

Only once has Nevada lost by more than 20 points this season. That came in a road game against Washington State five games ago. After that loss, Ty Gangi took over at quarterback. The Wolf Pack have averaged 35 points in their last four games with Gangi under center. Gangi has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last three games. The Wolf Pack have covered each of those last three games, including losing by just two points to Colorado State as 25-point road ‘dogs.  This is a much bigger game for Nevada than it is for Boise State. The Wolf Pack treat this game as a rivalry. They’ve had two weeks to prepare following a bye last week. The Broncos have a much bigger game on tap playing at Colorado State next week.  Boise State is more about defense than offense this season.

The Broncos rank 103rd in yards per game. They aren’t built to cover lopsided spreads like this especially against good passing teams. The Broncos average just under 30 points a game.  Nevada is 7-1-1 ATS during its last nine November games. Boise State is a brutal 0-12-1 ATS as a home favorite and 0-10 ATS in its last 10 home contests.  (Editor’s note: Stephen Nover is 11-4 on his last 15 college football plays. His Saturday card is headed by his ACC Total of the Year.)

NCAAF Pick: Will Rogers betting the Hokies -2.5 points on November 4th 2017

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanes
Football Point Spread Pick: VT -2.5 (November 4th 2017)

The set-up: No. 13 Va. Tech (I’ll use CFP rankings) visits Miami Gardens at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday night to take on the 10th-ranked Miami Hurricanes. The 7-1 Hokies (3-1 in the ACC) only loss is a 31-17 defeat at Clemson (current No. 4 in the CFP rankings) and enter this contest off three straight wins (over Boston College, North Carolina and Duke) since losing to the Tigers. Miami is 7-0 (5-0 in ACC play) and enters off three consecutive non-covers, edging Ga. Tech 25-24 at home, beating beating Syracuse 27-19 as a 17 1/2-point favorite at home and then winning last Saturday just 24-19 at North Carolina, as a three-TD favorite. Miami leads the all-time series 20-14 but Va. Tech rolled over the ‘Canes last year in Blacksburg, 37-16

Virginia Tech: Both Virginia Tech and Miami have first-year starters at QB. Virginia Tech’s Josh Jackson has a 62.3 completion percentage, averaging 254 yards per game with 17 TDs and four INTs. The offense has solid balance, averaging 266.5 YPG passing and 180.0 YPG on the ground. However, it’s the Bud Foster coached defense which stands out, allowing 11.5 PPG (2nd) on 284.5 YPG (9th).

Miami: QB Malik Rosier also has 17 TDs and just four INTs but is completing a lower percentage than Jackson (just 56.7%) but throws for about 40 more YPG (295.9). Miami’s D doesn’t quite match Va. Tech’s but by allowing 18.7 PPG (20th) a on 379.9 YPG (53erd), that unit hardly owns any ‘apologies.’

The  pick: The Hurricanes are 5-0 in ACC play for the first time in program history but I’m not convinced they are the better team. However, a four-point victory over Florida State, a one-point decision over Georgia Tech, an eight-point decision over Syracuse, and last week’s five-point struggle against one-win North Carolina didn’t keep the Hurricanes from earning a No. 10 ranking in the season’s first College Football Playoff rankings. Miami has won its last four games by a total of just 18 points, while Justin Fuente’s Va. Tech team has won three in a row since dropping a 31-17 decision to Clemson, including a 59-7 rout of a North Carolina team that pushed Miami to the brink before losing 24-19 last week. Maybe Va. Tech is favored for a reason? Take the Hokies.