MLB Picks: May 16th 2013
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers +101 odds
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It’s rare that you get the opportunity to back arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball as an underdog. Well, that is what has been given to us tonight as Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers are a dog to the Texas Rangers Thursday.

I’ll gladly take advantage and back Verlander at his best price of the season. The 2011 AL MVP & Cy Young winner has gone 4-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in 2013. Verlander is also 8-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 13 career starts against Texas.

Yu Darvish has been putting up solid numbers in his own right, but he’s no Verlander. Plus, Darvish has posted a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts. He has also given up seven earned runs over 13 2/3 innings in his last two home starts against Detroit for a 4.61 ERA.

The Tigers are 51-22 in Verlander’s last 73 starts overall. Detroit is 37-14 in its last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Tigers are 65-26 in Verlander’s last 91 starts with 4 days of rest. Detroit is 8-3 in Verlander’s last 11 starts vs. Texas. Bet the Tigers Thursday.

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MLB Picks: May 16th 2013
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Over 8 runs -110 odds
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The first three games of this series have all been low-scoring. In each of those games we saw a total of 7.5 or lower and all three went UNDER. Despite the recent results, oddsmakers opened the total for Thursday’s game at 8.5. It’s since been bet down to 8 and I think it’s time to jump all over it. The fact that oddsmakers set the total higher, has me thinking they are expecting an offensive outburst.

I would agree. The Brewers will send out Hiram Burgous, who was lit up for 12 runs (10 earned) on 11 hits in just three innings of work in his last start. He’s clearly not going to come in with much confidence. The Pirates will counter with Francisco Liriano. In his first start of the season on Saturday, Liriano allowed just one run on six hits while striking out 9 against the Mets. However, he lasted just 5.3 innings and likely won’t pitch deep in this game. You also have to remember that Liriano has a history of some pretty ugly starts. Both starters have the potential to give up 5+ runs in this game. Even if one starters pitches well, there’s a good chance the other will make up the difference. BET THE OVER!

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Cleveland Indians vs. Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Pick: Under 8 -120 odds (May 15th 2013)
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We expect a low-scoring game between the Indians and Phillies on Wednesday afternoon. The Indians play their fourth game in just over 48 hours as they wrap up a brief 2-game set in Philadelphia against the Phillies. Cole Hamels looks for his second win of the season; five of his eight starts have gone Under the total. Hamels has allowed just 5 runs and 12 hits over his last three starts while striking out 17. Jason Giambi (0-4), Mark Reynolds (2-10) and Drew Stubbs (2-11) have had their problems with the Phillies’ pitcher. Cleveland has scored just 7 total runs in their last four games, all of which have gone Under the total. They are hitting right around .236 in their last eight games.

Corey Kluber has pitched well for the Indians excluding his last start at the tough Detroit Tigers. Before giving up 8 runs to them, he gave up 5 runs and 12 hits in two starts against the Royals and Twins. The Phillies broke out of a scoring slump a bit on Tuesday night by scoring 6 runs. Before that they had scored just 13 runs over a 5-game span. This is a Phillies team hitting just .243 against right handed pitching. The Indians’ bullpen still has not lost a game yet this season and they continue to be a strength. We expect a low-scoring game between the Indians and Phillies on Wednesday afternoon.

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
MLB Pick: Minnesota +103 odds (May 14th 2013)
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We’ll take Minnesota in this game on Tuesday night.

Minnesota continued their smoking hot offensive assault on Monday night as they put up 10 runs. Now they’ll have to attack Jake Peavy of the White Sox. He is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA in six starts for Chicago. Peavy faced the Twins back on April 20th allowing six hits in seven innings of work. Minnesota’s offense has improved greatly since then as they’ve scored 55 runs in their last eight games. Brian Dozier (5-13), Joe Mauer (9-29) and Chris Parmalee (5-11) hit the righty hard. The Twins are hitting almost .280 in their last eight games and they are 9-8 at home. Chicago’s bullpen gave up a bunch of runs on Monday and they’ll be a little thin for tonight’s game.

Kevin Correia is glad to be home after two rough road starts. He has allowed just 6 runs in 29 innings pitched at home going 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in four starts there. Chicago has scored just 8 runs in their last three games and 21 runs in their last seven games overall. They are hitting .219 against right-handed starters and they are 7-12 on the road this season. Minnesota’s bullpen has an ERA under 3.00 on the season and they continue to do good work. We’ll take Minnesota in this game on Tuesday night.

Don’t miss out on ALL of Steve Merril’s expert MLB picks for May 14th 2013 at Touthouse.com