Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Game 4 Pick: Chicago +7.5 point spread (May 13th 2013)
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The Bulls have now lost two straight in the series and have failed to cover the spread in both games. There’s no doubt the public will be on the Heat in Game 4, which is of importance here. Oddsmakers are well aware of the public and yet the current line on this game is a full point less than what we saw Miami favored in Game 3.
In my opinion, that’s a pretty good indication that they feel like the Bulls will keep this game close. I couldn’t agree more. Chicago is clearly the team with more to play for, as the series is all but over if they lose this game. I’m taking the points as insurance, but I like the Bulls chances of winning this game outright!
The Bulls have been in this situation before and delivered. Chicago is an impressive 13-4 ATS this season off a home loss, a solid 24-10 ATS over their last 34 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. BET THE BULLS!
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Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Game 3 Betting Pick: Chicago +7.5 (May 10th 2013)
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You won’t find the Bulls as a 7.5 point spread home underdog very often and that kind of value is just too much to pass up today. Chicago’s defense has held opponents to 91.6 points per game when they are on their home court. While Miami may be the best team in the league, 12 of their 17 losses this season have come on the road. I am not saying the Bulls will win this game, but they should certainly not have a problem keeping this game closer than the 7.5 points they are receiving.
This matchup falls into a system to play against road favorites like Miami when they have covered 4 or more of their last 6 games and they are winning 75% or more of their games this season playing a team that has a winning record. This system is 100-54 (65%) ATS. The fact that Miami beat Chicago so easily in game two of this series has inflated this line much higher than it should be. The Heat shot 60% from the field in that game which is extremely unlikely to take place again, especially since they will be on the road today.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA Game 2 Pick: Oklahoma City -2.5 -110 odds (May 7th 2013)
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Rarely will you find this much value in a line for the Thunder playing at home. Regardless of the injury to Westbrook the Thunder are the easy call in this game. You should always play against underdogs like Memphis when they are coming off a straight up loss where they covered the spread and playing in a game involving two teams winning 60% to 75% of their games on the season. This system is 50-14 (78%) ATS.
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With all the talent this Oklahoma City team has they should have had no problems replacing the production that Westbrook used to bring. In fact, I would argue that their opponents have a harder time making defensive adjustments to Westbrook being out than the Thunder do. Memphis has made it this far into the postseason because of their defense, but even a great defense like the Grizzlies have cannot stop the Thunder. Memphis simply doesn’t have the scoring ability to takes to keep pace and that should allow the Thunder to pick up a big win tonight.
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Game 6 Betting Pick: New York -2 (May 3rd 2013)
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Oddsmakers think NY will this one the road and so do I, and that is why they are favored folks. The oddsmakers show their cards with a line like this. Look, I do not likes the Knicks attitude like most everyone else, a classless effort in their last game. The Knicks floor ace Mello has stunk up the joint in the past 2 games and so have others, and yet the Kicks lost a loose a tight one the other night and also one in OT while playing like dog crap, and I do not see them getting waxed 3 in a row, they are too good.
No dounbt Doc Rivers has shown his prowess for coaching in this series and has outcoached the Knicks coaches, BUT talent sooner or later wins out and the aging Celtics will find the going tough against a team being called out by everyone and has something to prove, and can play better than their last two court appearances. I see Mello having 30+ tonight the Knicks winning by 4-6 points.
NY 94 Boston 88 – Lay the small numner for a Free Play. Don’t miss out on all of Tony George’s NBA basketball playoff picks at Touthouse.com. Check back daily!