Detroit Pistons vs. Toronto Raptors
NBA Pick: Toronto Raptors -4 (February 22nd 2012)
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I don’t think there is any denying the Pistons are playing their best basketball heading into the All-Star break. They have covered 10 of their last 11 games, which likely has got the attention of just about everyone who bets the NBA. I expect a lot of people to jump on Detroit as a 4-point underdog in Toronto, but my money is on the Raptors to win and cover in this one.
The Pistons blew a 17-point lead at Cleveland last night, where they allowed the Cavaliers to score 35-points in the fourth quarter. That’s a pretty good sign of a team wearing down. Tonight’s game against the Raptors is not only the second road game in a back-to-back set, but its Detroit’s 6th game in the last nine days.
At the same time the Raptors have had the luxury of four days off since their last game. Toronto has lost four straight and seven of the last eight. That usually is a sign that a team is playing bad, but the Raptors haven’t had a loss by more than 7-points during that stretch. I look for them to come out extremely motivated to put a win on the board before the All-Star break. BET THE RAPTORS!
NBA Picks: February 21st 2012
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers -1
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The 76ers, which should benefit from a day of rest, will no doubt be focused this evening as they try to end a 3-game skid. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, enjoy no such luxury having just played in Houston last night.
History is certainly on our side here considering plays against home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games and are playing the second of a back-to-back are 58-28 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 6.2 points.
Also, Memphis is just 1-8 ATS when checking in off a road loss this season.
Bouncing back from tough defeats hasn’t been an issue for the 76ers since Doug Collins took over. The Sixers, which lost by 1 point Sunday, are 18-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less under Collins. They have won by an average score of 95.3 to 89.0 in this situation. Take Philly.
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NBA Predictions: February 20th 2012
San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
Pick: San Antonio Spurs -3
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The San Antonio Spurs are absolutely rolling right now. I’ll back this red-hot team as they travel to Utah to face the Jazz tonight. Utah will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, while San Antonio is playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. The Spurs will clearly have more energy to give tonight.
San Antonio has won 10 straight games heading into this one. The Spurs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as well. What is most impressive about this streak is that seven of those 10 games have been on the road. After struggling away from home early in the year, the Spurs are proving they can win anywhere.
The Jazz have lost six of their last eight games overall with one of their two wins coming at home against the lowly Washington Wizards. San Antonio has their number, and I fully expect that to continue tonight. The Spurs have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Jazz, winning all four by 7 points or more.
This play falls into a system that is 67-30 ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home underdogs (UTAH) – extremely tired team – when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, in February games. The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Bet San Antonio Monday.
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NBA Picks: February 20th 2012
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks +2.5
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This will be the third meeting between these two teams over the last 10 days. The Magic won the first meeting at Milwaukee 99-94 thanks to a 21-6 over the last five and half minutes of the game. Orlando would then beat the Bucks 94-85 after closing the game out on a 17-0 run.
Outside of the final minutes the Bucks pretty much dominated the game, and those losses are ones that are hard to let go. I look for Milwaukee to come out extremely motivated in this game and to play much better in the fourth quarter this time around.
While both teams played Sunday, the Magic went on the road to face the Heat in an intense showdown on ABC and the Bucks went on the road to face a struggle Nets team. I think Orlando will struggle to come out with a lot of energy in this game, especially considering they have already beat this team twice in a short period of time. BET THE BUCKS!
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NBA Picks: February 19th 2012
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Over 190.5 (February 19th 2012)
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Minnesota has been an overs machine of late, finishing over the total in 12 of its last 17 games. The T-Wolves have played to the over in 4 of their last 5 while combining with their opponents to average 198.2 points during this stretch.
Even with back-to-back unders, Philly has still played to the over in 5 of its last 8. Following a pair of poor offensive performances, I expect the 76ers to bounce back with a strong offensive showing this evening.
The Sixers have played to the over in 5 of their last 6 on the road. This comes as no surprise considering they’re averaging 97.4 points away from home on the season. It is also worth noting that they have played to the over in 11 of their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less and in each of their last 7 versus the NBA Northwest division.
When these teams last met in March, we saw 211 total points scored. In fact, these two have combined to average 208 points over the last four meetings. The over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota. We’ll take the Over.
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