Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
NBA Prediction: Memphis -7.5 -110 odds (February 27th 2013)
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Memphis is very quietly heating up, and they have now won seven straight. They were slumping from the middle of January to the middle of this month (for Memphis standards), but they have seemed to turn things around. And you have to remember this team was one of the best ATS bets to start the season, and they are currently ranked No. 3 in the NBA ATS rankings. This team got to that point by winning and covering games like this. Dallas is coming in on a back-to-back after losing to a struggling Milwaukee team at home last night. Dallas looked really bad in that game, and we just don’t see how they will follow up that performance with a break-out game in a back-to-back against a much better team. Memphis has the defense to shut down the Mavs offense, which is their only real strong point. Also, the Grizzlies have shown the ability to score on bad defenses like this one, and we think they will be able to get enough points to cover this line. One of the crucial aspects of NBA handicapping is to try and jump on streaks early, and we think the Mavs are going to struggle in the next couple weeks. They really looked flat last night in one of their last home games for awhile, and now they face three playoff teams on the road followed by a lone home meeting with Houston, and after that they play four more on the road. Dallas is a team to bet against right now, and it starts here Wednesday night.
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NBA Picks: February 26th 2013
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Over 195
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The books have set the bar too low in this contest between two of the worst teams in the Western Conference in the Phoenix Suns (18-39) and Minnesota Timberwolves (20-33). A big reason for both of their struggles is their lack of defense. Minnesota yields 101.1 points/game on the road this year, while Phoenix gives up 100.2 points/game overall.
My biggest reason for backing the OVER Tuesday is the fact that these teams have typically played in much high-scoring games than this posted total in their last several meetings. Indeed, The Timberwolves and Suns have combined for 199 or more points in 17 straight meetings. That’s time-tested evidence I’ll gladly back with my own money tonight.
The OVER is 7-1 in Timberwolves last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 6-1 in Minnesota’s last 7 road games. The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Phoenix. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. Make sure to visit Touthouse.com each day for more NBA picks with analysis from our handicappers
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
NBA Betting Prediction: Denver -7 -110 odds (February 25th 2013)
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Off back-to-back wins over the Blazers and Mavericks by a combined 7 points, the Los Angeles Lakers come into this game overvalued with the Denver Nuggets Monday. They picked up a huge win at Dallas yesterday, but now they come in very fatigued. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 6 days.
The Denver Nuggets have had a day off since beating the Bobcats 113-99 on the road Saturday. Now they return home where they have been simply sensational all season. The Nuggets are 23-3 SU & 17-9 ATS in all home games this season. They are scoring 108.7 points/game at the Pepsi Center and outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points/game.
Los Angeles is just 10-18 SU & 10-18 ATS on the road this season. It’s an older team as it is, and on little rest, it won’t be able to keep up with one of the most up-tempo teams in the league tonight. That has been the case in two previous meetings this season. Denver won 126-114 at home over Los Angeles on December 26th, and 112-105 on the road on January 6th.
The Lakers are just 1-11 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Denver is a perfect 9-0 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. Los Angeles is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 games following a win. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Nuggets Monday.
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NBA Picks: February 24th 2013
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
Pick: Cleveland +13
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The Miami Heat enter Sunday’s home contest with the Cleveland Cavaliers way overvalued. They are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their current 10-game winning streak coming in. With the betting public all over them now, oddsmakers have been forced to set this number too high tonight.
The biggest factor working against the Heat is that this will be the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. I don’t care how hot you are, that’s about as tough of a situation as you will have in this league. I look for Miami to be flat because of it.
Cleveland is playing its best basketball of the season over the last few weeks. It has gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games overall, which includes a 118-94 road win at Orlando last night. While this is a back-to-back for the Cavaliers, it will only be their 2nd game in 4 days, and the travel is short from Orlando to Miami so it shouldn’t be a factor.
The Cavaliers are 10-1 ATS against Southeast division opponents this season. They are beating these teams 105.8 to 98.5, or by an average of 7.3 points/game. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Heat are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 vs. NBA Central division foes. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.
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