Washington Wizards vs. Phoenix Suns
NBA Pick: Phoenix Suns -110 odds (March 20th 2013)
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These two teams just met on Saturday night and Washington waxed Phoenix 127-105. The Wizards played way over their heads in that game, and in a quick turnaround rematch, we do not expect them to repeat that performance. Washington shot 51.6% (48-93) from the field and an incredible 66.7% (14-21) from three-point land. The Wizards also connected on 17 of their 20 free throws. Six players scored 11 points or more, and that production came when three of their key role players did not play.
Phoenix also shot the ball well in that game; the Suns shot 47.7% (42-88) from the field. But obviously that wasn’t nearly enough since the Wizards shot the lights out. The Suns are back at home where they are 16-17 this season; they are just 7-28 on the road. Washington also has a strong home/road dichotomy as the Wizards are 18-17 at home while just 5-26 on the road. The Suns crushed the Lakers in their last game 99-76 and we expect them to make it back-to-back wins on their home court tonight as they avenge their 22-point loss at Washington.
NBA Picks: March 20th 2013
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis -1
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Yesterday’s winner on Milwaukee, part of a 5-0 Tuesday sweep, brought me to 5-0 my last five NBA & 18-4 my last 22. A couple of those recent winners have involved Memphis.
I successfully played “on” the Grizzlies in their most recent game, a 15-point win. I also successfully played “against” them in their previous game, a 6-point loss …While they’re up against one of the top teams in the league, I believe this looks like another spot to play “on” the Grizzlies. Many bettors don’t ever imagine that “elite” teams (like OKC) can lose two in a row. However, it can (and does) happen. While the Grizzlies had yesterday off, the Thunder were busy losing against Denver. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they’ll also be playing their third game in the past four days and their 9th game in the past 14 days. That’s a pretty grueling stretch, even for an athletic team like the Thunder. The Grizzlies upset the Thunder at OKC in this season’s first meeting but proceeded to lose to them (also at OKC) in the most recent meeting. That puts them in the “revenge” role here, a role which has typically been very good to them. When facing a team which defeated them in the most recent meeting, the Grizzlies are 11-7 ATS (12-6 SU) their last 18 and a profitable 58-39 ATS the past few seasons. The Grizzlies are also 15-7-1 ATS (18-5 SU!) off a double-digit victory and 14-7-1 ATS when facing a team which averages 99 or more points per game. Looking back a little further finds them at a lucrative 60-30-1 ATS the past few seasons, against teams which average 99 or more points per game. While the Thunder are a respectable 20-13 on the road, the Grizzlies are a much better 26-8 here at Memphis. Take a look at the home team.
Denver Nuggets vs. Chicago Bulls
NBA Pick: Chicago Bulls +3.5 -110 odds (March 18th 2013)
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The Chicago Bulls should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Denver Nuggets. I’ll take advantage and back the Bulls at a great price tonight.
Chicago comes in undervalued due to failing to cover four of its last five games overall. However, it got back on track with a 113-95 road victory at Golden State last time out as a 5-point underdog Friday night.
Denver comes in overvalued due to its 11-game winning streak heading into this contest, of which it has gone 10-1 ATS in the process. Most of those wins came at home with only four coming on the road.
All four of those road victories were against Charlotte, Portland, Sacramento and Phoenix, which are non-playoff contenders. The Nuggets are just 15-19 on the road this season. It’s like night and day for this team home and away as they are a much better home squad.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series considering the home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2006. The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Chicago wants serious revenge from a 96-128 road loss at Denver in their first meeting this season. Bet the Bulls Monday.
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NBA Picks: March 18th 2013
Brooklyn Nets vs. Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons +4.5
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You should always play on home underdogs like Detroit when they are playing a double revenge game against an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite. This system is 64-30 (68.1%) in favor of that home underdog. This trend is particularly important because the Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a double digit loss at home.
The Pistons are averaging 96.3 points per game at home while the Nets are scoring a mere 93 points on the road. Brooklyn is not a team that forces a lot of turnovers averaging just 13 per game while committing 14 of their own. The Nets defense has been horrible lately allowing over 51% shooting in their last three games. The Pistons may not have a great overall record, but they are playing on their home court and if the Nets allow over 50% shooting in this game the Pistons will pick up a home win.