Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
NFL Playoffs Over-Under Pick: Under 51 points (January 22nd 2017)
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Sunday NFL free play. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and New England at 6:40 pm et on Sunday.
We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in the Patriots sloppy blowout win over the Texans last Saturday night. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however.
The Chiefs laid out a pretty good gameplan for slowing down the Steelers offense last week, or at least for how to keep them out of the end zone. I expect the Patriots to employ a similar bend but don’t break style here in the AFC Championship Game.
While the Steelers are known for their offensive prowess, it’s been their defense that has arguably led the way in these playoffs. This is a unit that’s brimming with confidence right now, and one that is playing with a lot of swagger – something they’ll need against the Patriots, who are rarely taken down at home in the postseason.
The oddsmakers have been off the mark with Steelers totals in both previous playoff games and I believe that’s the case again here. Two familiar opponents lends itself to a lower-scoring game than anticipating on Sunday night. Take the under (8*).
- Sean is putting his AWESOME 61-46 NFL record to the test with 10* side winners from both conference championship games on Sunday, including his 10* NFL Playoff Game of the Year! Plus he’s putting his RED HOT 26-10 NBA run on the line with another 10* winner on the hardwood!
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
NFL Playoffs Over-Under Pick: Under 61.5 points (January 22nd 2017)
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It was just a few days ago now that the Houston Rockets hosted Golden State, in a game that featured the highest NBA total in modern history (at least the last 10 years). The number opened at 236.5, and closed as high as 242. This is what I said prior to tip off: ” Even for those who think this game is going to be a shootout, there’s just no value betting over with such an inflated total.”
The Warriors went on to win that game by a score of 125-108, which would normally be an easy cash for over bettors. Not in this case though, because the number was just too high. I feel the same way about this year’s NFC Championship Game. While I expect both teams to score plenty of points, I still think it’s going to be hard to reach what is expected to be the highest NFL total in playoff history.
In order for both teams to score 30+ points, everything has to go right offensively. There’s plenty that can go wrong. An injury to a key offensive player (heaven forbid one of the quarterbacks). We could see several drives cut short by turnovers (fumbles or INTs). Or one or both teams could be heavily penalized. Offensive holding penalties, offensive pass interference, unsportsmanlike conduct etc.
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I do expect this to be a high scoring game, and I’ve loaded up on prop bets for individual players to score TDs. I don’t need 61.5 total points to cash in all those bets, and I think the chances are a lot higher that the total lands between 50-60, than they are for the total to go over 61.5.
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
NFL Playoffs Betting Pick: Green Bay +6 (January 15th 2017)
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This is too many points for me to pass up on Green Bay, especially with the Cowboys concluding the season on a 1-5 ATS run. They had 4 consecutive games decided by 6 points or less in Weeks 12-16.
Green Bay has won 7 straight. Aaron Rodgers is in a zone and they are still a sizable dog here. There is pressure on the 1-2 rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. I think that pressure and inexperience has to carry some weight here where as the Packers are a ‘been there and done it’ type of team.
Green Bay lost at home earlier this year to the Cowboys so we have a revenge angle here also. The last 2 years in the Playoffs, the Packers were an underdog twice playing with revenge and covered both games. They lost both of those straight up, but were competitive. That’s what I expect here.
The Cowboys have been a home favorite in the playoffs once in the last 6 years. That was in 2015 when they barely beat the Lions by 4 points, thanks to help from the refs in my opinion.
The Packers will be without Jordy Nelson, something that they dealt with last year. Aaron Rodgers has confidence in his other receivers and brings out the best in them and boost their confidence.
I’m not going into depth on the Cowboy’s strength and their 13-3 record and playing with a week of rest, etc…This is not a big fade on Dallas, but rather a stronger play on the Packers. It should not be needed, but Rodgers is always capable of getting a back door cover also. Favorites have gone 6-0 ATS heading into Sunday and all 6 games decided by double digits. It’s about time for an entertaining close game. (1* PACKERS)
- Brandon has a BIG TRIPLE PLAY with 2 NBA/ 1 NCAAB on Sunday. He looks for a 3-0 sweep here finishing the week on a high note. Hop on board and let’s BANG the Books together!