Week 5 NFL Picks: October 7th 2012
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Giants
Pick: Cleveland Browns +8.5
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The Browns are 0-4 but have been very competitive. In fact, they have been at their best against their best competition. They have played the Eagles, Bengals and Ravens – all playoff caliber opponents – to 7 points or less.
The defending Super Bowl champs are just 2-2 and only one of their wins have come by more than the posted number for this game. This is a lot of points for the Giants to be laying considering how many yards they’ve been giving up. They rank 22nd in the NFL with 372.2 yards allowed per game.
The Browns have consistently been disrespected by odds makers recently, and they have consistently played their opponents tougher than the books thought they would. As a result, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games. They are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
The fact Cleveland is on the road and yet to win this season is of no concern. Consider that it is 6-0 ATS in road games following 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It has only lost by an average of 3.5 points in this situation. Don’t miss out on Jimmy Boyd’s premium week 5 NFL picks on October 7th 2012
It is also worth noting that the Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
In addition, teams coached by Tom Coughlin are just 11-24 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. His teams have only won by an average of 4.9 points. in this situation.
The Browns have had a few extra days to prepare as they played the Thursday game last week. That only helps their cause. They likely won’t be able to get the “W” but should keep this one within the number. Take the points.
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