Week 5 NFL Picks: October 7th 2012
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Giants
Pick: Cleveland Browns +8.5
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The Browns are 0-4 but have been very competitive. In fact, they have been at their best against their best competition. They have played the Eagles, Bengals and Ravens – all playoff caliber opponents – to 7 points or less.

The defending Super Bowl champs are just 2-2 and only one of their wins have come by more than the posted number for this game. This is a lot of points for the Giants to be laying considering how many yards they’ve been giving up. They rank 22nd in the NFL with 372.2 yards allowed per game.

The Browns have consistently been disrespected by odds makers recently, and they have consistently played their opponents tougher than the books thought they would. As a result, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games. They are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

The fact Cleveland is on the road and yet to win this season is of no concern. Consider that it is 6-0 ATS in road games following 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It has only lost by an average of 3.5 points in this situation. Don’t miss out on Jimmy Boyd’s premium week 5 NFL picks on October 7th 2012

It is also worth noting that the Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

In addition, teams coached by Tom Coughlin are just 11-24 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. His teams have only won by an average of 4.9 points. in this situation.

The Browns have had a few extra days to prepare as they played the Thursday game last week. That only helps their cause. They likely won’t be able to get the “W” but should keep this one within the number. Take the points.

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Week 5 NFL Picks: October 7th 2012
Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Chicago Bears -5.5
CLICK HERE FOR JOSEPH D’AMICO’S EXPERT NFL PICKS

Jacksonville has the worst offense in the NFL. Blaine Gabbert has been sacked 12 times this season. The QB tends to hold on to the ball too long. This combined with the fact that Maurice Jones-Drew has been held under 100 YR in three of the four games this season. WR, Laurent Robinson is most likely out due to a concussion. The rest of the Jaguars receiving corps do not match up well against a Bears secondary and overall “D” that held a solid Cowboys offense to just 18 points LW. Chicago is steadily improving, combining for 77 points in their L2 outings. QB, Jay Cutler is becoming more confident with each game while the legs of Forte (check status) and Bush have combined for 343 YR and 4 TDs. The tandem will face a Jacksonville run defense that allows 150.3 YPG on the ground. The Bears are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played overall while the Jaguars are 5-16-1 ATS their L22 games played vs. teams with a winning record. Take Chicago. Thank you.

Week 4 NFL Picks: September 30th 2012
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Under 44.5
CLICK HERE FOR JACK JONES’ EXPERT NFL PICKS

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this AFC West rivalry between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. I fully expect a defensive battle, which is something that has been a common theme between these teams when they get together.

Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 43 or less combined points. In fact, eight of the last nine meetings have seen 44 or less combined points. These teams know each other inside and out, which makes points harder to come by.

San Diego is one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league. It ranks 9th in NFL in total defense (305.7 yards/game) and 6th in scoring defense (17.0 points/game). The Chargers’ offense gets too much credit because of Philip Rivers. They rank just 23rd in the league in total offense (318.0 yards/game).

Kansas City did not play well defensively in its first two games, but a lot of that was due to injuries and suspensions. Now healthy, the Chiefs held the Saints to just 24 points and 288 total yards in a 27-24 overtime victory last week. Like San Diego, they also have one of the most underrated defenses in the league.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Chargers last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. The UNDER is 9-0 in Chiefs last 9 vs. AFC West opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 home games. Kansas City is 9-1 to the UNDER vs. poor passing defenses – allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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Week 4 NFL Picks: September 30th 2012
San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets
Pick: New York Jets +4.5
CLICK HERE FOR STEVE JANUS’ EXPERT NFL PICKS

We find a ton of value on the Jets even with the 49ers surprising loss last week at Minnesota. I don’t disagree that San Francisco should be valued in this matchup, but not by more than a field goal. You have to remember that the 49ers will be traveling across the country for this game and that it’s an early game.

In the Jets only home game so far this season, they put on an impressive performance in a 48-28 win over the Bills in week 1. I still think the jury is out on New York after their poor showing in the pre-season, but this is a very good football team and one in my opinion shouldn’t be getting 4.5 points at home. San Francisco is just 4-9 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

This play falls into a profitable situation that has proven it’s reliability over the years. Anytime you have a team that is coming off a loss of 10-points or more as a 3.5-10 point favorite, going up against a team that managed to score just 3-points in the first half of their last game, the smart play is on the underdog. It’s 117-68 (63%) since 1983! BET THE JETS!