Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins +10 -110 odds (December 24th 2011)
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The Patriots beat the Dolphins 38-24 clear back in their season opener, but this isn’t the same Miami team the Pats saw in September. The Phins have rebounded from an 0-7 start to win 5 of their last 7 games straight up and 7 of their last 8 games against the spread.

With the playoffs not being an option for the Dolphins, they will treat this game as their Super Bowl. With that kind of commitment to this contest, I expect them to give New England a game.

The key to Miami’s turnaround has been its running attack. Reggie Bush, who ranks sixth in the AFC with 973 rushing yards, is a big reason why the Dolphins rank seventh in the NFL with 127.4 rushing yards per game. He has averaged 135.3 rushing yards the last three weeks and could be poised for a big day against a New England defense ranked dead last in the NFL with 414.4 yards allowed per contest.

The Dolphins have averaged 190.7 rushing yards over their last three games and the Patriots have given up an average of 211 rushing yards in their last two games. If Miami is able to run the football, which I fully expect they will, it will be able to control the clock. The less time the New England offense spends on the field, the less time it will have to score.

Miami is 5-2 ATS in road games this season, 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games and 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Dolphins are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record.

The road team has covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings in this series, and I expect this trend to continue Saturday.

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Week 15 NFL Picks: December 18th 2011
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Week 15 NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks +3.5
The Seattle Seahawks (6-7 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) are feeling good as they come into this contest riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak in which they scored at least 31 points each time out. Seattle has actually won four of its last five games overall, including its emphatic 30-13 rout of St. Louis on Monday night to cash in as a 9-point home favorite. The Chicago Bears (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS) have lost three straight, including their 13-10 road loss to Tim Tebow and the Broncos as a 3-point road underdog.

Analysis: I’ll get right to the point with this Week 15 pick by saying that I really like the way the Seattle Seahawks are playing right now and I believe they will find a way to not only get the ATS cover in this contest, but push Chicago for the outright win. He Bears haven’t scored more than 20 points since losing starting quarterback Jay Cutler while not toping 13 points in each of their last two games. All of a sudden, the Seattle Seahawks are looking good, thanks mostly to Marshawn ‘The Beast’ Lynch and some surprisingly steady play from often inconsistent quarterback Tavaris Jackson. With the Seahawks beating Baltimore and Philadelphia to get two of their last four wins, I say they take another one against a good team by beating the Bears outright. Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against its NFC conference rivals. Chicago is 4-10 ATS in their L/14 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points.

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week 15 NFL Pick: Arizona Cardinals -7
The Cleveland Browns (4-9 SU, 4-7-2 ATS) have lost three straight games while the red-hot Arizona Cardinals (6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS) have won three consecutive games and five of its last half-dozen games overall. The Browns looked as clueless as ever in their 14-3 Week 14 road loss to Pittsburgh, though they did manage to cash in against the NFL betting line as a 14-point road underdog. Arizona got the biggest win of Week 14 by beating the San Francisco 49ers 21-19 to cash in as a 3.5-point home underdog and move to 5-1 ATS over their L/6 games.

Analysis: This pick is as simple as pie Touthouse NFL betting buffs with the Cardinals looking to keep their winning ways and extremely faint playoff hopes alive for another week – and Cleveland looking to just get to the end of the regular season before heading into the offseason to formulate another ‘rebuilding plan’. The Browns are 2-8 ATS in their L/10 games as an underdog while Arizona has gone 6-2 ATS in their L/8 home games while also going 6-1 ATS in their L/7 games overall. Get more week 15 NFL picks on December 18th 2011 at Touthouse.com

Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 14 NFL Pick: Oakland Raiders +12.5 (December 11th 2011)
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Oakland’s 3-game SU and ATS winning streak came to a crashing halt last week in Miami. The Raiders lost that game 34-14 after generating just 304 yards of total offense. But we’re willing to forgive that poor effort by Oakland as they were playing an early start game on the East Coast against the red hot Dolphins who have out-scored their last five opponents by a combined score of 139-54. The Raiders should be much more competitive this week even though they are now facing the undefeated Packers on their home field.

The Raiders are a solid 4-2 SU on the road this season and an even more impressive 5-1 ATS in those games. Oakland has been effective running the football this season averaging 4.6 yards per rush. And that could be the Raiders best defensive weapon in this game, especially since Green Bay’s defense is allowing opponents to rush for 4.9 yards per carry. While the Raiders run defense has not been strong this season, they’ll be facing a Packers team that only averages 3.8 yards per rush. Green Bay is strictly a passing offense, but Oakland’s secondary has been their defensive strength this season. The Raiders are allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, and they’ve held their last seven opponents to 239 passing yards or less.

The huge offensive numbers put-up by Green Bay has done a good job of hiding what has been an inconsistent defense. The Packers are 16th in points allowed (22) and they are next to last in the NFL in total yards allowed (398) and passing yards allowed (292). This will be the seventh time this season in which Green Bay is a double digit favorite; the Packers are just 3-3 ATS in those games. Green Bay’s defense has allowed 409 yards or more in six of their last seven games, and since we expect Oakland to run with success, we see some tremendous value in taking the big points with a rushing underdog. -Steve Merril

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Week 14 NFL Pick: Detroit Lions -10 (December 11th 2011)
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After a great start to the season, the Lions are falling fast as they have dropped five of their last seven games but confidence should not be an issue. Detroit is still very involved in the Wild Card race and it was fortunate that the other four teams fighting for those playoff spots also lost last week. At 7-5, Detroit needs to make a push with this game being a must win and not only to avoid a sixth loss overall, but to avoid a sixth loss in the conference, which is one of the tiebreakers should it come down to that.

The Vikings are coming off a devastating loss to the Broncos last week as they were hit by the Tebow train as many teams have already. Minnesota is off to the worst start in franchise history and things are only getting worse. The offense took a hit with Adrian Peterson missing the last two games, and he remains questionable this week. Now the quarterback position is in disarray once again as Christian Ponder will sit out. Enter Joe Webb and his 60.9 career passer rating.

The Lions showed last week that they can hang around with the elite teams in the NFL but the problem is that they are incredibly undisciplined. They committed two costly personal fouls as well as three offensive interference penalties that cost them numerous yards and probable points. This is an issue that cannot be rectified overnight but lessons were learned and head coach Jim Schwartz called a private meeting with the team captains on the way home and things will be different this week.

The Vikings defense has been solid against the run this season but that is about it. They are allowing 252.2 ypg through the air which is 26th in the league and their 27.5 ppg allowed is second most in the NFL, ahead of only the lowly Colts. Even last season when the Vikings were 6-10, the defense allowed fewer than 300 total yards six times and this year have done so only once showing how much they have digressed. Detroit has put up over 400 yards of offense in three straight games and that continues this week.

An offense that should go nowhere with Webb and a defense with too many holes spells blowout and a much needed confidence boost for the Lions. Detroit has played the third toughest schedule in the NFL and finally catch a break here after a brutal stretch of games. The Vikings are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record with a negative scoring differential of nearly two touchdowns per game. The Lions meanwhile have covered four straight against losing teams. 3* (114) Detroit Lions -Matt Fargo. Get more week 14 NFL picks for December 11th 2011 at Touthouse.com.