Week 15 NFL Picks: December 16th 2012
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1
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The Steelers are coming off an embarrassing 24-34 home loss to the Chargers as a 7-point favorite. Pittsburgh has now lost three of four and are in danger of missing the playoffs.

Pittsburgh is one team you can feel confident backing in a spot where they desperately need a win. They did just that a couple weeks ago when they went on the road and upset division rival Baltimore without Ben Roethlisberger. You have to wonder if they didn’t invest so much into beating the Ravens that they simply didn’t have anything left in the tank for the Chargers.

The Cowboys recent surge has created a buzz in Dallas. They have won four of five, but two victories came against the lackluster Eagles and the other in overtime at home against the Browns. They were extremely fortunate to beat the Bengals last week, as Cincinnati had to settle four four field goals and outgained Dallas by almost 50 yards.

You simply can’t trust Dallas, especially at home. The Cowboys are just 3-3 at home this season with all three losses coming against top level opponents in the Bears, Giants and Redskins. BET THE STEELERS!

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Week 14 NFL Picks: December 9th 2012
Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Redskins
Pick: Washington Redskins -2.5
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The Redskins are now 6-6 overall and just a game back of the Giants in the NFC East. Ever since this team returned from their bye week they have looked like a completely different team than the one that opened the season 3-6. It’s hard to not like your chances with Washington at home laying less than a field goal.

The Washington offense looked unstoppable at times last week, as the Giants defensive front seven looked lost on their assignments. You simply don’t know when RGIII is going to hand it off, play action pass or take off running. Baltimore’s defense has already been decimated with injuries and just this past weekend lost starting outside linebacker Terrell Suggs. While Ray Lewis is expected to start practicing this week, he isn’t expected to even be considered to play until next week against the Broncos.

Baltimore’s defense has been no where close to what we have grown to expect over the last decade. The Ravens rank 23rd in the NFL against both the run and the pass and it figures to only get worse without either of their two start linebackers in the lineup.

Washington seems to save its best for when they play the better teams in this league, as they are an impressive 5-1 ATS over their last six games vs a team with a winning record.

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Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (December 9th 2012)
Week 14 NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts -5
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The Indianapolis Colts have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they are at 8-4 right now and currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC. The Tennessee Titans don’t have much to play for considering they are just 4-8 on the season, and even if they were to win out they have little to no chance of making the playoffs.

Indianapolis has been at its best at home this season. It is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS inside of Lucas Oil Stadium this year. Its defense has been very tough at home, allowing just 19.2 points and 334 total yards per game. Tennessee is 2-4 straight up and 2-4 against the spread on the road.

What many people don’t realize is that the Colts have one of the top offenses in the league. They rank 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 392.1 yards per game. Andrew Luck and company should have their way with a Tennessee defense that gives up 29.9 points per game. The Titans rank 27th in total defense as well, giving up 386.3 yards per game.

I know the Colts only won by a final of 19-13 in overtime at Tennessee in their first meeting, but that game was more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. Indianapolis outgained the Titans 457-339 for the game while moving the football at will. I look for the Colts to take advantage of their scoring opportunities at lot more often this time around.

This play falls into a system that is 41-13 (75.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) – after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game.

The Titans are 1-9 ATS vs. AFC South opponents over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 December games. Bet the Colts Sunday.

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Oakland Defense No Match For Manning
By SBRForum.com

Way back in Week 4, QB Peyton Manning had the game that signaled that he had arrive in the Rockies. He led his Denver Broncos to a 37-6 victory in which he threw for 338 yards and three TDs against the Oakland Raiders. It was the most efficient game that he had all season long, and for the first time, for a full 60 minutes, Manning looked like the old Peyton Manning. Now, he gets a chance to do it again on Thursday when these two teams met at the O.co Coliseum.

Manning now has 29 passing touchdowns for the season, leaving him two shy of the league lead. He also has thrown for 3,502 yards, and he is on a pace to throw for 4,669 yards should he play all 16 games for the Broncos this year. What makes Manning great this year though, is his efficiency. Of the eight quarterbacks in the NFL that have thrown for at least 3,500 yards, Manning has thrown the fewest passes (447) yet has the fourth most completions (304).

What’s worse for the Oakland defense is that it has played significantly worse over the course of the last month than it was playing at the outset of the year when Manning blew the unit up. The Raiders have allowed 31.3 points per game on the season, ranking dead last in the league, and the secondary has allowed an average of 276.2 passing yards and 2.2 TD passes per game over the course of its last 10 games.

Even though the Raiders are at home, they are still hefty underdogs of 10 ½-points on the NFL odds to kick off Week 14. The Broncos have won and covered two in a row in this series dating back to last year, covering both spreads at least 21 points.