Week 14 NFL picks: December 9th 2012
St. Louis Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Buffalo -3
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I’ve had a pretty good read on this year’s St. Louis Rams team. With winning tickets on both the Rams AND the “under” in last week’s 16-13 victory against San Francisco, I’m now 7-2 in games involving the Rams, 6-1 on sides and 1-1 with totals.
In addition to last week’s win against the 49ers, I also won with the Rams when they defeated the Redskins, Seahawks and Cardinals. Meanwhile, I successfully played against the Rams when they were blown out by the Bears and Jets.
Really, with a little luck, that record could have been every better, perhaps even 9-0. The lone side “loss” came at Miami. The Rams were trailing by double-digits entering the fourth quarter but an 8-pt TD in the final 10 minutes helped them eke out a cover. Don’t miss out on Ben Burns premium Week 14 NFL picks on December 9th 2012
Also, the lone O/U loss was the “under” in the Rams’ game at Green Bay. That game had only 23 points scored into the fourth quarter. However, the teams combined for 27 more points in the final stanza, sending the final combined score above the number – barely.
Off last week’s emotional upset “OT” victory, which was their second straight divisional win, I feel that the Rams will be ripe for a letdown here.
True, last week’s win kept them mathematically alive for a playoff spot. However, even the Rams are aware that’s not realistic. Also, lets not forget that this team has still only achieved four victories in its last 20 away from St. Louis.
The Bills, 18-7-1 ATS their last 26 against teams from the NFC West, are 4-1 ATS when laying points this season, 2-0 ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points.
Off a game in which they racked up 232 yards on the ground and having the advantage of hosting a dome team in December, I feel the Bills are worth a look. I’m not comfortable laying more than a field goal, after the Rams burned me at Miami with a 3-point loss. So, if playing, make sure to get the -3 and not to go higher than than.