Week 14 NFL picks: December 9th 2012
St. Louis Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Buffalo -3
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I’ve had a pretty good read on this year’s St. Louis Rams team. With winning tickets on both the Rams AND the “under” in last week’s 16-13 victory against San Francisco, I’m now 7-2 in games involving the Rams, 6-1 on sides and 1-1 with totals.

In addition to last week’s win against the 49ers, I also won with the Rams when they defeated the Redskins, Seahawks and Cardinals. Meanwhile, I successfully played against the Rams when they were blown out by the Bears and Jets.

Really, with a little luck, that record could have been every better, perhaps even 9-0. The lone side “loss” came at Miami. The Rams were trailing by double-digits entering the fourth quarter but an 8-pt TD in the final 10 minutes helped them eke out a cover. Don’t miss out on Ben Burns premium Week 14 NFL picks on December 9th 2012

Also, the lone O/U loss was the “under” in the Rams’ game at Green Bay. That game had only 23 points scored into the fourth quarter. However, the teams combined for 27 more points in the final stanza, sending the final combined score above the number – barely.

Off last week’s emotional upset “OT” victory, which was their second straight divisional win, I feel that the Rams will be ripe for a letdown here.

True, last week’s win kept them mathematically alive for a playoff spot. However, even the Rams are aware that’s not realistic. Also, lets not forget that this team has still only achieved four victories in its last 20 away from St. Louis.

The Bills, 18-7-1 ATS their last 26 against teams from the NFC West, are 4-1 ATS when laying points this season, 2-0 ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points.

Off a game in which they racked up 232 yards on the ground and having the advantage of hosting a dome team in December, I feel the Bills are worth a look. I’m not comfortable laying more than a field goal, after the Rams burned me at Miami with a 3-point loss. So, if playing, make sure to get the -3 and not to go higher than than.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Diego Chargers
Week 13 NFL Pick: San Diego Chargers +2.5 (December 2nd 2012)
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I got burned by the Chargers last week; their collapse against the Ravens prevented me from going 8-0 with my Sunday NFL picks. That was certainly a heart-breaker, the type of loss that can sometimes be difficult to bounce back from …

If you missed it, the Chargers were up comfortably late in the game and would have won in regulation, if Baltimore didn’t convert an improbable 4th and forever. That said, I feel that San Diego is providing us with some solid value this afternoon.

Most are really down on the Chargers right now. Rightfully so, its been a disappointing season. That doesn’t mean that they’ve quit though. While others see last week’s loss as a sign of what a mess this team is right now, I see a Chargers team that just went toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the league.

I respect the Bengals and won with them when they defeated the Giants recently. However, I’m not sure they’re ready to be favored – albeit only slightly – against a talented team, when they’re playing thousands of miles away from home. (Yes, I still feel San Diego is talented, despite the fact that the team is dealing with some injury issues at the moment.)

Consider that the Chargers were laying 7.5 points, when these teams met at Cincinnati, less than two years ago. Now, they’re underdogs at home.

The Bengals won that 2010 meeting. Playing on their home turf and with a chance to help do damage to another team’s hopes, don’t be surprised when the Chargers return the favor this afternoon. Consider San Diego.

Week 13 NFL Picks: December 2nd 2012
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears
Pick: Chicago Bears -3.5
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The Bears are coming off a solid win over the Vikings and they have a 1-game lead over the Packers in the tough NFC North, but they are really banged up. Offensive linemen Lance Louis and Chris Spencer and WR Devin Hester are out with injuries and star RB Matt Forte is a question mark.

Still, they have a great defense and they will be facing a Seahawks’ team that is 6-5, but is coming off a loss and only has 1 road win this season. This season the Seahawks are 7-4 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 4-7 and the Bears are 6-5 ATS with an Over/Under record of 6-5.

If Forte cannot go Michael Bush will be the main RB and while he had 60 yards last week against the Vikings when Forte went out he averaged less than 3 yards per carry.

For Seattle Russell Wilson does not have the best WR corps and has a tall task since the Chicago pass D ranks 6th in the league. I just don’t see how Seattle will move the ball. All the Bears emphasis will be on stopping Lynch.

The Bears are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games but I really like them enough on Sunday to cover. The Seahawks have had their number the last couple years but rookie Wilson has never played at Soldier Field in December. Bears win with strong defense and Cutler/Marshall will have a solid outing even against Browner/Sherman (Seattle’s Pro Bowl DB’s)

Week 13 NFL Picks: December 2nd 2012
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Denver Broncos
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8
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The Buccaneers had a chance to take over the second Wild Card spot this past week with a win over Atlanta, but they squandered a 23-17 lead in the 4th quarter to snap their four-game winning streak. Tampa Bay is battling Minnesota and Seattle but the Seahawks hold the tie-breaker which means Tampa Bay has a lot of work to do over the final four weeks of the season.

Tampa Bay appears to be showing a lot of value this week as a 8-point underdog. Tampa Bay hasn’t lost a single game all season by more than a touchdown and I don’t think people realize just how well this team has been playing of late. You also have to factor in that Peyton Manning and the Broncos are one of the more popular teams in the NFL at the moment. The public has quickly fallen in love with this team and it’s not all that surprising given their current winning streak. Oddsmakers have taken advantage of this by setting the Broncos lines too high. Denver has failed to cover the number in two straight games.

The Buccaneers offense could pose a threat in this one, despite the Broncos impressive numbers. Denver ranks 5th in the NFL against the pass (209.6 ypg) and 9th against the run (98.7 ypg). We saw Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs help Kansas City rush for 148 yards against that Denver defense and earlier this season the Patriots put up 251 yards on the ground. Tampa Bay has one of the most electrifying backs in the NFL in Doug Martin, and I think his speed and agility will give the Broncos front seven a lot of trouble. Denver is going to have to load the box to try and stop Martin, which should open up some passing lanes for quarterback Josh Freeman to exploit.

Tampa Bay is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons and are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points during that stretch.

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