NHL Picks: March 20th 2012
New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Pick: Toronto -114
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Toronto is coming off a pretty embarrassing lost last night in Boston as it was hammered 8-0. By the end of the second period, the Bruins had seven goals while the Maple Leafs had managed just seven shots. Boston completed a 6-0 season sweep with those six wins coming by a combined score of 36-10. A quick turnaround should do Toronto good here as it heads home in search of its own season sweep. The Maple Leafs have taken the first three meetings with the Islanders this season and look to go 4-0 here.

The Islanders won their last game on Saturday against Montreal with a 3-2 shootout victory which snapped a two-game road losing streak and moved to 14-16-5 on the season away from home. While they have shown some positive signs, the Islanders know a fifth consecutive last-place finish in the Atlantic Division is all but certain. New York has won consecutive games only once since early February and it is now 1-7 in its last eight games following a win.

The loss last night was the worst for the Maple Leafs in four years and while they have struggled at home of late, their last six home games have come against teams in the playoffs or right on the edge of getting in. they had won three straight including two shutouts against the Islanders and Penguins and a convincing 6-3 over Edmonton before things started falling apart. Toronto is still a respectable 16-13-6 on home ice this season with six of their final nine games taking place at home.

Revenge will be in play for New York tonight but that is not necessarily a good thing here as the Islanders are 11-26 this season when playing with revenge including 5-19 revenging a game where the opponent scored four or more goals. There is also a league-wide situation going against the Islanders as we play against road underdogs that are revenging two straight losses where opponent scored three or more goals, off a road win by one goal. This situation is 63-14 (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Toronto Maple Leafs -Matt Fargo

Ottawa Senators vs. Boston Bruins
NHL Pick: Under 5.5 (February 28th 2012)
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These teams just faced each other on Saturday, at Ottawa. The Bruins won that game by a score of 5-3. That high-scoring game (combined with the fact that the Senators have been on a lengthy “over” streak) has helped to create some extra value with the total this evening. The line is still 5.5, as it was on Saturday. However, we’re now able to play the ‘under’ at a cheaper price than was previously available. (The price on that one was 5.5u15.)

Just because the first game of a “home and home series” is high-scoring doesn’t mean that the second game also will be. In fact, the opposite is often true. The last time that the Bruins were involved in a “home and home series” was against the Leafs, a couple of months ago. The first game, at Toronto, produced nine goals. However, the second game, which was here at Boston, finished with only five, a 4-1 victory for the champs.

Boston’s only other home and home series this season was vs. Montreal. In that one, the first game went “over” and the second went “under.” That was also the case for the Sens’ most recent home and home series. So, you can see, in these type of situations, the “tempo” often changes when the venue shifts.

This will be Boston’s first home game in some time. In fact, the champs have only played four times here in February. Three of those four games finished with three or fewer combined goals, most recently a 3-0 loss vs. the Rangers on Valentine’s Day. I won’t be surprised if this one is also low-scoring. Consider going “Under” 5.5.

Montreal Canadiens vs. New York Islanders
NHL Pick: Montreal Canadiens (February 9th 2012)
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My last free play resulted in a winner with Montreal on Tuesday. Listed as home underdogs, the Canadiens “upset” Pittsburgh. That was the second straight victory for the Canadiens. Prior to that, I’d backed them in their 3-0 victory over the Jets. While the Habs are now taking to the road, I feel that they’ve got an excellent shot at making it three in a row.

We’ll be getting a great price on the Canadiens, based on the fact that this game is being played at Long Island. However, home ice isn’t necessarily an advantage for these teams.

Surprisingly, the Isles have now won three straight on the road. They’ve lost back to back home games though. In fact, they’re now one of the few teams with a record which is worse (vs. the moneyline) at home than it is on the road. The Isles are 11-16 (11-11-5) at home and 11-14 (11-11-3) on the road.

Note that the Isles did win 1-0 in a shootout on Monday, getting a great effort from their goalie. However, they were dominated in that game, getting outshot by a 45-18 margin.

Despite winning back to back home games, the Canadiens are also one of the other teams which has a better record on the road. They’re 10-15 on the road but 11-18 at home.

Monday’s win against Pittsburgh came in a shootout, which may well have been just what the doctor ordered for the Habs. That was just the Canadiens’ second win in nine shootouts and could easily help to build some positive momentum.

Goalie Carey Price, who is starting to play much better, had this to say of the win over Pittsburgh: “We blew two leads but at the end of the day I thought we kept a really positive attitude on the bench…”

Tomas Plekanec, who scored the eventual winner in the shootout, had this to say of Price: “Carey was great again tonight. He gave us a chance to stay in the game and he was great again in the shootout.”

Both teams are starting to climb in the standings. Both are fighting to get back in the playoff race. Both have “hot” goalies, entering this game. The Canadiens are 13-6 the last 19 meetings in the series though and they’ve won six of their last nine trips to Long Island. The Canadiens also played much better than the Isles on Monday. Consider Montreal. Get more NHL picks for February 9th 2012 from Ben Burns at Touthouse.com

Edmonton Oilers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
NHL Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets -115 odds (January 17th 2012)
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Not exactly a clash of the titans here. The Oilers are in 13th in the West, 13 points back of the 8th place team. The Blue Jackets have been even worse. In fact, not only are they 15th (out of 15) in the West, they’ve got the fewest points in the entire league. Both teams should view this as an opportunity to pick up a rare victory. With this game being played at Columbus, I expect the Jackets to have the advantage. The Oilers won this season’s lone earlier meeting, a 6-3 victory back in early December. That came at Edmonton though. The Jackets are now 0-3 their last three visits there and 5-15 their last 20. Recent games at Columbus have been a different story. In fact, the Jackets are a perfect 4-0 when hosting the Oilers, since the start of 2009. The Jackets were laying a minimum of -155 (and as much as -220) for those games. We’re getting them at a far more reasonable price here. I feel that’s providing us with solid value. Consider a play on Columbus. Get more NHL picks for January 17th 2012 from Ben Burns at Touthouse.com.

Dallas Stars vs. New York Islanders
NHL Pick: Dallas Stars -102 odds (December 15th 2011)
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This is the fourth game of a five-game roadtrip for Dallas and a win ensures a winning trek and it looks to avenge a loss to the Islanders from 12 days ago. The Stars have taken the last two games as they have allowed just one goal combined against the Kings and Rangers and that can be attributed to recalled goalie Richard Bachman who was brought up following an injury to Kari Lehtonen. Bachman has played in the last three games, including starting the last two, and stopped 71 of 72 shots on goal.

The Islanders have lost three straight games, the most recent taking place in Montreal on Tuesday, but a return home may not be the cure to their ills. After starting the season 3-1 on the island, New York is just 3-6-3 in its last 12 home games, including losses in five of its last six. The Islanders have dropped every game this season that has gone past regulation, losing four times and twice by way of shootout. New York is tied with Los Angeles for the fewest goals in the league with 65.

While they can’t score, the defense has been an issue for the Islanders as well. They are ranked 27th in goals-against average at 3.25 per game and while goalie Al Montoya has been decent most of the season, he has allowed 10 goals over his last two starts. He will likely sit tonight though but that does not give New York as edge as Evgeni Nabokov is just 1-5 in eight games played with a 2.83 GAA. Dallas has been inconsistent on the offensive end but this could be the much needed breakout game.

As mentioned, this is a revenge game. The Stars allowed five goals in that loss to New York and that matched a season high for goals for New York. The Islanders are 9-26 in their last 35 games coming off a road loss including going 3-14 in 17 games coming off a road loss by two or more goals. Dallas meanwhile is 21-8 in its last 29 games after allowing one goal or less in its last game. The Stars are 8-2-1 at New York since the start of the 1996-97 season. 3* (51) Dallas Stars. Get more NHL picks for December 15th 2011 from Matt Fargo at Touthouse.com.