Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins
Prediction: Miami Marlins -117 odds (July 18th 2012)
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The Miami Marlins are showing great value as a small road favorite over the lowly Chicago Cubs Wednesday. Miami has won two in a row and realizes now is the time that it needs to make a move if it wants to play in the postseason. At 36-53 on the season, the Cubs have little to play for the rest of the way.

While Josh Johnson hasn’t been his old dominant self this year, I have no doubt he’s the better starter in this match-up. Johnson is 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA on the season, while Jeff Samardzija is 6-8 with a 4.71 ERA on the year for the Cubs.

Johnson has posted a 3.44 ERA in three career starts against Chicago, not once allowing more than three earned runs. Samardzija is 1-1 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.965 WHIP in two career starts against Miami. In his lone start against the Marlins this year on 4/19, Samardzija gave up five earned runs and 13 base runners over 3 2/3 innings.

Miami is 12-3 in road games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite. Miami is 40-12 in Johnson’s last 52 starts with 4 days of rest. The Marlins are 7-1 in Johnson’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 1-7 in Samardzija’s last 8 starts as an underdog. Bet Miami Wednesday. -Jack Jones