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Home > College Football Picks > College Football Pick: Schule betting the Spartans +16.5 points on November 11th 2017

College Football Pick: Schule betting the Spartans +16.5 points on November 11th 2017

Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
College Football Pick: MSU +16.5 (November 11th 2017)
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The Buckeyes loss to Iowa last week effectively ends any realistic hope that they will return to the College Football Playoffs. They try to pick up the pieces this week, hosting rivals Michigan State. The Spartans are now 5-1 in the BIG10, and the winner of this game is likely heading to the BIG10 Championship Game. The bookmakers still have the Buckeyes favored to win this game by three scores, but I don’t see any evidence to justify that line. After giving up a combined 93 points in their last two games, I think the Buckeyes defense has been exposed. In their previous seven games, they had played just two teams with a .500 or better record. One of those was a 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma, and the other was a 38-7 win over Army. In a total of four games versus teams .500 or better, they are 2-2 but have been outscored 131-117. History tells us that these two teams have been rather evenly matched over the last decade. In six games since 2011, not one of those games was decided by more than 12 points. Four of those six games were decided by three points or less, including a 17-16 Buckeyes win at East Lansing last year. Ohio State was a 20 point favorite in that game, and they lost outright as a 14.5 point home favorite the year before. There is no doubt in my mind that this is an inflated spread, and I’ll take the points.

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