Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
Betting Prediction: Under 45 points -110 odds (October 31st 2011)
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The Under gets the call as our free play tonight as the books have set the bar a little too high. These two AFC West rivals have combined for 44 points or less in 7 of the last 8 meetings. Including the lone matchup that exceeded 44 points in this span, a 57 total-point effort, these teams have only averaged a total of 41.25 points over the last 8 meetings. In addition, the Chiefs fit into an unders system that has been quite profitable in recent years. Consider that plays under on any team that is coming off an upset win by 10 points or more and is matched up against a division opponent has produced a 20-4 record the last 3 seasons. This system has seen an average posted total of 43.6 points, and we’ve seen the teams fitting this system combine with their foes to score just 38.7 points on average. Lastly, the under is 6-2 in the Chiefs’ last 8 home games and 5-0 in their last 5 contests versus division opponents. Bet the Under. 6 OF L7 DAYS IN THE BLACK behind a Red Hot 12-5 (71%) Run! Close out Week 8 in style with Jimmy’s Chargers/Chiefs 5* MNF *BEST BET* (ESPN)! Grab a 1 week pass to SAVE $200!
New Orleans vs. St. Louis Rams
Week 8 Betting Pick: Under 48 -110 odds (October 30th 2011)
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A trend that has never lost and a strong super system that is undefeated this season are in play here. Consider that the Rams are 8-0 under all-time under coach Spagnuolo when matchup up against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). We’ve seen just 34.9 total points scored in these games. The St. Louis offense is struggling, which bodes well for this play, and the defense has played well enough to keep the Rams under the number in each of their last 3 games. In addition, plays under on any team when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (New Orleans in this case) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9, are 46-17 since 1983. We have only seen an average of 41 total points scored in this situation the last 28 seasons. It’s also worth noting that this system is 2-0 this season. Bet the Under.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 8 NFL Pick: Philadelphia -3 (October 30th 2011)
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Prediction: The Eagles won their final game before their bye week and that was obviously a huge victory. They ‘improved’ to 2-4 which isn’t saying a lot but if they had lost to the Redskins and were sitting at 1-5, things would be different heading into this week. Philadelphia has some confidence now and with the Giants losing two weeks ago also, it is just two games out of first place in the NFC East. Despite being two games under .500, Philadelphia has outgained every opponent, and by an average of 100.6 ypg.
We won with Philadelphia in that game against the Redskins and pointed out prior to that the problems were with turnovers. They have turned the ball over 14 times in their four losses with at least three in each game and that is not going to help pile up any wins. What makes that even more frustrating for Philadelphia is the fact that it has either had the lead or been within one score in the final five minutes of each of those losses. Against Washington, they won the turnover battle 4-2.
The Cowboys could be considered coming off a bye as well as they took care of the Rams with very little problem. The issue with Dallas is the same as it is with the Eagles and that is turnovers. The Cowboys are actually outgaining foes more than the Eagles are but they are just 3-3 to show for it. Turnovers on offense have been the killer and while the Eagles defense has been a liability this season, they are getting healthy and the bye came at a perfect time to key some of those key guys back.
Head coach Andy Reid is 12-0 after a bye and whether or not it is just coincidence, this year it comes at a good time as we can still buy the Eagles low as they continue their upswing. With this line, I feel the value is on the Eagles as the linesmakers are saying these teams are even on a neutral field or that Dallas may be even a little bit better. I’m not sure if that is the case as we can’t go by records, but by the fact that the Cowboys have the ability to step on their own foot yet again.
The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games following a cover as a double-digit favorite while going 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games after the defense allowed single digits in points in their previous game. Dallas has covered the last five meetings in this series and along with the Eagles rough start, the majority of the action has come in on Dallas yet we have seen the line move in the direction it should not be going . 3* (230) Philadelphia Eagles -Matt Fargo
East Carolina vs. Tulane
College Football Prediction: East Carolina -16 (October 29th 2011)
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This may seem like a lot of points to lay on a team that is just 3-4 overall, but I not only like East Carolina to cover, I think they will cover by two touchdowns. Tulane is one of the worst college football teams in the country. Their two wins this season have came against UAB (1-6) and Southeastern Louisiana. They just lost at home to Memphis (2-6) 17-33. The same Memphis team East Carolina destroyed 35-17 on the road.
The Pirates are a much better team than their record indicates. Their four losses have came against South Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Houston, who are a combined 26-5 on the year. East Carolina’s offense should have their way with the Tulane defense. The Pirates come into this game with the 11th best passing attack in the country, averaging just over 309 yards per game. Tulane is allowing just 201 passing yards a game, but haven’t faced a lot of great passing teams. Against Duke earlier this year they allowed 333 yards in a 48-27 blowout loss.
The big concern for a lot of people will be laying this large of number on a defense that gives up just under 395 yards a game. However, we are talking about a Tulane offense that managed to score just 17 points against a Memphis defense that is allowing 494 yards of total offense.
East Carolina is 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Tulane on the other hand is 5-15 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons. BET THE PIRATES!
