NBA Picks: April 28th 2012
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: Dallas Mavericks +7.5
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As bad as the Mavericks have been down the stretch, I think a lot of people are overlooking this team. They still have one of the best players in the NBA in Dirk Nowitzki, and when he gets it going he is pretty much unstoppable. I’m not saying I think Dallas will go on the road and steal Game 1, but I expect them to keep this game close right down to the final minutes.
Dallas went just 1-3 against the Oklahoma City in the regular season. Only one of those losses came by more than 7-points. In fact, the Thunder won their two home games in the series by a combined six points. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Dallas preferred to play the Thunder over the Lakers, as the Mavericks don’t have the size inside to matchup with LA.
Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 (2012 regular season), and 10-1 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams – scoring 103+ points/game – 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BET THE MAVERICKS!
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MLB Picks: April 27th 2012
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Over 9 -110 odds
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I look for the Mets and Rockies to put up a big number Friday night, as New York sends out Chris Schwiden against Colorad’s Drew Pomeranz. Some of the best pitchers in the game struggle to pitch well at Coors Field and I’ll take my chances on one, if not both, starters giving up a big number in this one.
Schwiden has been called up from Triple-Buffalo. He made four starts last year, going 0-2 with a 4.71 ERA. This will be his first career start at Coors Field and that rarely results in a strong outing.
Pomeranz has really struggled in his two starts this season. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.715 WHIP. In his first start at home, he allowed five runs on nine hits in just 4.3 innings of work.
The OVER is 7-1 in the Mets last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 39-18 in the Rockies last 57 home games vs. a right-handed starter. BET THE OVER!
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MLB Picks: April 25th 2012
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Reds -129
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After taking three of four in New York, the Giants dropped the series opener in Cincinnati last night and I expect that to carry over into tonight. San Francisco has gotten off to a slow start with an 8-9 record through 17 games and both the offense and the pitching have been underperforming. The Giants are hitting .260 which isn’t horrible but they have scored only 73 runs and they have put up four runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games. They have now lost six straight meetings in Cincinnati.
The Reds are beginning to pick things up after their own slow start as they have won four of their last five games after starting the season 4-8. They have climbed over .500 at home for the first time since starting 2-1 and they are hoping the offensive outburst from last night carries over into tonight. Cincinnati has yet to put together consecutive strong offensive showings but it gets a chance tonight in a favorable pitching matchup. Going back to last year, the Reds are 12-2 as home favorites between -110 and -150.
Barry Zito will be making his fourth start for the Giants and he has surprisingly been the staff ace so far. He has a 1.71 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through three games as he has allowed two runs or less in each start which includes two quality efforts. It has been a great start but it could come crashing down here as his success against the Reds has been non-existent. In nine career starts, he has a 7.47 ERA and 1.55 WHIP and he has never won at Great American, going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in five starts.
Likewise, Bronson Arroyo has gotten off to a great start this year as well. Through three starts, he has a 2.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP as he has tossed two straight quality outings after an average opening start against the Marlins. After a solid 2010 season, he was dreadful last year and his most impressive feat so far is that he has allowed only one homerun after allowing 46 last year and he has issued only one walk as well. He has tossed six straight quality starts against the Giants, posting a 1.81 ERA over that stretch. 3* (914) Cincinnati Reds
MLB Picks: April 23rd 2012
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Boston -148 odds
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Boston is off to another slow start, but I like its chances against a Minnesota club it has defeated 5 times in the past 6 meetings. Plus, the Twins are just 13-40 in their last 53 overall, 9-28 in their last 37 home games, 16-47 in their last 63 games as an underdog and 5-22 in their last 27 series openers.
In addition, Lester is clearly more capable than Marquis of delivering a gem. The Red Sox have yet to win with him on the mound this season, but he was pretty darn good in road starts against the Tigers and Blue Jays (2.40 ERA, 0.933 WHIP). The Red Sox are 11-5 in Lester’s last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record and 48-22 in his last 70 starts overall vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the BoSox.
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