MLB Picks: May 31st 2012
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox -133
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The Boston Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season right now. Boston (26-24) has gotten to two games over .500 for the first time all year thanks to three straight wins over the Detroit Tigers to open this series. The Red Sox have scored a combined 19 runs in the three victories.
After a shaky start, Josh Beckett has pitched very well of late. Beckett is 2-2 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in five home starts this season, and 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in his last three outings. He has allowed just 3 earned runs over 21 2/3 innings in his last three starts.
Max Scherzer is one of the most overrated starters in the big leagues. The right-hander is 4-3 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.537 WHIP through 10 starts this season. Scherzer has never beaten Boston, going 0-2 with a whopping 11.81 ERA and 2.313 WHIP in four career starts against the Red Sox. He has allowed 14 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.
Detroit is 5-20 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 30-11 in Beckett’s last 41 starts as a home favorite. Boston is 9-2 in their last 11 home games. The Tigers are 26-59 in their last 85 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Bet Boston Thursday.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers -159 (May 30th 2012)
Rarely will I ever lay this much juice in baseball, but I believe the Los Angeles Dodgers are worthy of it tonight. They’ll be motivated for a win following two straight losses to the Brewers to open this series. Plus, they send 2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw to the mound.
Kershaw has picked up right where he left off last season, going 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.903 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He’s been untouchable in his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 0.78 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 23 innings.
Yovani Gallardo is off to a slow start for Milwaukee, going 3-4 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.414 WHIP in 10 starts. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in five road starts as well. Gallardo has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-3 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in five career starts against them.
Kershaw is 17-2 against the money line in his career as a home favorite of -150 to -200. The Dodgers are 13-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The Brewers are 6-21 in Gallardo’s last 27 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 0-6 in Gallardo’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Dodgers Wednesday.
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MLB Picks: May 30th 2012
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Over 8.5
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Two struggling pitchers take the mound in Anaheim on Wednesday night as the Angels host the Yankees. Ervin Santana is 2-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 10 starts; he allowed 4 runs, four hits, and seven walks in five innings in his last start. He lost to the Yankees back in April after giving up 5 runs and six hits. He lost two straight starts at home to the Bronx Bombers last year after giving up 9 runs in those two games combined. Robinson Cano (11-34), Eric Chavez (11-31), Derek Jeter (17-41), Russell Martin (6-20) and A-Rod (12-34) hit the Angels’ starter well. The Yankees are putting up over 5 runs per game in their last eight games while hitting right around .270 this season. The Angels’ bullpen has close to a 50% save percentage so the late innings can be an adventure for them.
Ivan Nova has been very hittable this season. He is 5-2 with a 5.47 ERA in nine starts giving up 71 hits in just 56 innings. Nova managed to allow 3 runs and six hits to light-hitting Oakland in his last outing. He has given up 13 runs and 20 hits in his last three starts overall. Nova beat the Angels back in April, but he allowed 4 runs and eight hits in the process. He is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts against the Angels. Peter Bourjos (4-5), Chris Ianetta (3-5), Maicer Izturis (3-6), Howard Kendrick (2-6) and Mark Trumbo (4-8) have good numbers against the Yankees’ starter. The Angels are hitting right around .280 at home and they are putting up runs right now. This game has slugfest written all over it so we’ll look for a high-scoring game between the Yankees and Angels. -Steve Merril
Baseball Predictions: May 29th 2012
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -127
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The Blue Jays are showing some great value as a small home favorite against the Orioles on Tuesday. Toronto will send out their ace Ricky Romero, who is 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA on the season. Romero has had no problems shutting down the Orioles of late. He is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA in the series since 2010 and has pitched at least eight innings in each of his last three starts against the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays offense should be able to score enough runs against Baltimore’s Jake Arrieta. In 10 starts this season, Arrieta is 2-5 with a 4.87 ERA. He has been especially bad of late, going 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.836 WHIP in his last three starts.
Toronto is 10-2 in Romeros last 12 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 14-3 in Romeros last 17 home starts, and 9-2 in Romeros last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE BLUE JAYS! -Steve Janus
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