Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
Betting Pick: Indiana Pacers +2 -110 odds (May 17th 2012)
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The public perception is that the Heat are going to roll into Indiana and take Game 3, I don’t think that will be the case at all. This is not the same Miami team without Chris Bosh in the lineup, which is why Indiana was able to steal Game 2 on the road.
A lot of people are pointing to the Heat role players all of the sudden becoming a factor in this game. They haven’t done anything the entire playoffs. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are averaging a combined 56.5 ppg in the series and the Heat could easily be down 0-2.
There’s a good chance the Heat role players will have a better showing than they did in Game 2, but you also have to take into consideration how much better Indiana’s role players will play at home. Indiana shot just 38% from the field and was only 3 of 15 from long distance in Game 2. Those numbers are going to go up on their home floor.
Not only do I think the Pacers have a great shot at winning this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they embarrassed the Heat tonight. The only concern I have with this game is the possibility that James and Wade combine for 75 points. Very unlikely. Indiana is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. BET THE PACERS!
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: Lakers +8 -110 odds (May 16th 2012)
The Thunder made the Lakers look foolish in Game 1 of this Western Conference Semifinals matchup on Monday. But time and time again we saw the schizophrenic Lakers bounce back in their series against Denver when it looked like they were down for the count. We think that they will bounce back again tonight and play much better here in Game 2. The Game 1 loss was the worst for the Lakers this season and we think the public is overreacting to that result, which is why we are getting an even better number in Game 2 than was offered in Game 1 for the Lakers. Normally in Game 2 like this the team that lost would be given a little more credit from the oddsmakers in an obvious bounce-back situation. Kendrick Perkins injured his hip in Game 1 and is considered a game-time decision on Wednesday. If he is missing or limited the Lakers have a big advantage down low with Bynum and Gasol that they should be able to exploit. We think the Thunder played a near-perfect game in Game 1 and we just don’t see them putting up a similar effort in Game 2. The Thunder led the NBA in turnovers this season yet committed only four in the Game 1 win. Despite the Game 1 result we still think the bookies should have posted a lower line on this Game 2 since the Lakers are facing a real critical game tonight, especially with back-to-back games in LA coming up. -Doc’s Sports
MLB Picks: May 16th 2012
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians
Pick: Seattle Mariners -113
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The Mariners have the edge on the mound with Hernandez, who is carrying a 2.29 ERA through 8 starts. Compare that to Cleveland’s Jimenez, who has a 5.17 ERA through 7 starts.
The fact the M’s are favored on the road versus a team with a winning record is significant. After all, they are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 6-0 in Hernandez’s last 6 starts as a road favorite. The Indians, meanwhile, are 9-21 in their last 30 games as a home underdog and 0-4 in Jimenez’s last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
The Mariners have won 4 of their last 5 in Cleveland, and I expect them to have continued success tonight with their ace on the hill.
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MLB Picks: May 15th 2012
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: New York Yankees -149
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Few starters in this league have owned any one time quite like C.C. Sabathia has owned the Baltimore Orioles. I look for Sabathia to continue his success against the Orioles tonight as the Yankees look to pull withing a half-game of Baltimore in the AL East.
Sabathia has been brilliant again this season, going 5-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in seven starters. The left-hander is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in his last three outings. Sabathia is 16-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 23 career starts against Baltimore.
Wei-Yin Chen is off to a solid starts for the Orioles, but teams are starting to get a scouting report on him now. Chen also gave up 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Yankees on April 10th, which resulted in a 5-4 New York victory. The Yankees are batting .288 and scoring 5.7 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2012.
Sabathia is 20-2 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 50-18 in Sabathia’s last 68 starts overall. New York is 12-1 in Sabathia’s last 13 starts against the Orioles, including 8-0 in his last 8 starts at Baltimore. Bet the Yankees Tuesday.
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