MLB Picks: June 30th 2012
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -110
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The Tampa Bay Rays are showing awesome value as a small home favorite over the Detroit Tigers Saturday. Tampa is 41-36 on the season after a solid 4-2 victory over Justin Verlander and the Tigers yesterday.
Tampa Bay starter Jeremy Hellickson has picked up right where he left off last season. He’s 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 13 starts this 5-5 season, including an impressive 3-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in eight home starts this year.
Rick Porcello is certainly a downgrade from Hellickson. Porcello is 5-5 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.570 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in seven road starts.
Hellickson has posted a 1.77 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit. Tampa is 10-1 against the money line in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 8-1 in Hellickson’s last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Rays Saturday. -Jack Jones
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: New York Mets -137 (June 29th 2012)
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Doc’s Sports MLB FREE PLAY FOR FRIDAY JUNE 29th 2012: Take #963 New York Mets over LA Dodgers (10:10pm est): The Los Angeles Dodgers are a mess right now and that might be saying things nicely. The Dodgers are without their two best players and combine the fact that the rest of the team is struggling and you have a club with five straight losses and who is averaging just 1.5 runs per game in their last ten contests. They have dropped seven of their last eight games as an underdog and five straight to teams with losing road records. They go here with the struggling Aaron Harang in this one. Harang looks like he has lost his control of late as he has issued over 7.50 walks per nine innings in his last three contests.
To make things even tougher here for the Dodgers they must go up against the best pitcher in the game this season R.A. Dickey. To say Dickey has been awesome would be an understatement. He is allowing less than a runner on base per nine innings on the season and he has 74 strikeouts to just 9 walks in his last eight starts overall. He comes into this one off a bad start to the Yankees but there is no sign that Dickey (who is 11-1 this season) won’t have his usual dominant stuff here in this contest.
We are getting arguably the game’s best pitcher this season in R.A. Dickey, coming off a poor outing last time out against a team struggling as badly as the Dodgers are on offense and at a reasonable price here. To be able to beat a knuckleball pitcher you better be a professional hitter and the Dodgers may have the least amount of them in their lineup of any team at this time. Looks almost like free money here in this one. Take the New York Mets.
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Pick: Over 10 runs -110 betting odds (June 28th 2012)
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I’ll take my chances on the White Sox and Yankees putting up a big number tonight. Chicago is coming off a 12-5 win at Minnesota on Wednesday, a game in which they had a ridiculous 21 hits. The Yankees won 5-4 against Cleveland, and have now scored at least 5 runs in each of their last four games.
What really makes me like the OVER is the pitching matchup. The White Sox will send out Dylan Axelrod, who has a 5.59 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in two starts. Not exactly the kind of numbers you want going into hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium with the way New York is swinging the bats.
The Yankees will counter with Ivan Nova. While Nova has an impressive 9-2 record, he has a 5.35 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in six starts at home. A lot of people will look at Nova’s 1.33 ERA over his L3 starts, but all three of those starts came on the road.
Another factor you have to take into consideration is the heat wave that has taken over pretty much the entire country. The high is suppose to be 90 degrees in New York today. There’s no denying the fact that the baseball goes a lot farther when it’s this hot out and when you combine that with the way the ball flies out of Yankee stadium, you get a lot of runs. BET THE OVER!
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MLB Picks: June 28th 2012
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros -112
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We’ll fade the Padres here given their struggles on the road and against left-handed pitching. They are 11-25 on the road and 6-19 against southpaw starters this season.
Houston has won 4 of its last 5 and is a solid 23-18 at home this season. It figures to be in good hands with Dallas Keuchel, who has pitched well in his first two starts going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.071 WHIP. It will also be to Keuchel’s benefit that the Padres have never seen him.
The Astros have more experience against Andrew Cashner, who is 2-1 with a 5.79 ERA in eight relief appearances against Houston.
The Astros are 12-3 in their last 15 games as a home favorite and we’ll take them in the role at a nice price today.
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