LSU vs. West Virginia
Prediction: West Virginia +6.5 (September 24th 2011)

West Virginia played LSU to a 6-point game on the road last season. That Mountaineer squad wasn’t nearly as explosive offensively as this year’s squad. Dana Holgorsen’s Oklahoma State offense took college football by storm last season, and I expect him to have a similar impact with the Mountaineers. LSU’s defense is top-notch, but West Virginia won’t give up its 18-game home winning streak in non-conference tilts without a fight. LSU will have to put some points on the board to cover this number, and that won’t be easy against a team that ranked No. 3 in the country in both total and scoring defense last season with 261.1 yards and 13.5 points allowed per game. The Mountain Men will force LSU’s Jarrett Lee to beat them through the air, and I don’t think he has it in him. Under Les Miles, LSU has never defeated an opponent ATS that is averaging 37 or more points per game. It is 0-8 ATS against these teams, losing to them by an average score of 29.0 to 26.1. Also, the Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. We’ll take the points as WVU keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.

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