Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Pick & Odds: November 5th 2011
Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Betting Pick: Over 57.5 -110 odds (November 5th 2011)
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These two teams combined for 66 points in a 38-28 Iowa win at Michigan last year. I think there is a great chance that they score even more than that this time around. The oddsmakers have been raising this total like crazy to try and get people on the under, but they still don’t have it high enough to keep me away.
Iowa is coming off a miserable 21-22 loss at Minnesota last week, a game they were favored by 15 points. While Iowa scored just 21 points, they should have had closer to 40 points if they had just executed in Minnesota territory. Iowa had 446 yard of total offense in the loss. Look for the Hawkeyes offense to get back on track at home, where they are averaging 39 points and just over 430 yards of offense.
If you look at Michigan’s defensive numbers you might think Iowa will struggle offensively. The Wolverines are 48th against the run (138.3) and 25th against the pass (194.6). However, that defense has not been all that great on the road. Michigan is allowing 26 points and 386 yards a game outside of the Big House.
With Michigan coming in averaging 34.7 ppg you should already be thinking shootout in Iowa City, but we haven’t even got into just how bad the Iowa defense is in 2011. Iowa is 66th against the run (163.6 ppg) and 75th against the pass (238.6). What Michigan does best is run the ball with Denard Robinson and Fitzgerald Troussaint. Iowa has struggled against mobile quarterbacks who like to run the ball. Just a couple weeks back the Hawkeyes allowed Indiana quarterback Tre Roberson to rush for 84 yards on 16 attempts. Just imagine what Robinson is going to do to this defense on Saturday!
The OVER is 12-5 in Wolverines last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 6-2 in Hawkeyes last 8 games as a home underdog, 13-4 in Hawkeyes last 17 home games versus good offensive teams – averaging >=425 yards/game since 1992! BET THE OVER 57.5! -Steve Janus