MLB Baseball Picks: Rockies vs. Dodgers Odds: July 25th 2011
While I’m not a “fan,” I backed the Dodgers in all three games of their most recent series, against Washington. Prior to that series, the Dodgers had just snapped a losing streak by beating Lincecum and the Giants. I felt that they’d be able to carry some positive momentum into their homestand and that they’d fare well vs. a Washington team that tends to struggle on the road. While they dropped the opener, the Dodgers still ended up winning two of the three games. Now, with three wins in four games, they face another team that has historically had trouble on the road. I feel they’ve got a solid shot at making it three in a row.
While the Dodgers are off back to back wins and have won three of four, the Rockies are off back to back losses and have dropped three of four. They lost their last two games by a combined score of 19-3.
De La Rosa has pitched better than his record indicates, particularly recently. He’s 0-1 over his last three starts but has a superb 2.50 ERA and 1.111 WHIP over that stretch. In those three games he has 18 K’s in 18 innings, walking just five. He also allowed only one home run. Note that he won his last home start by a score of 1-0, allowing only one hit through six shutout innings. Note that De La Rosa is backed by a Dodger bullpen which has a superb 1.82 ERA over its last 13 games.
Nicasio has had some success at Coors and is off back to back strong outings there. However, he’s really struggled away from home. In fact, in four road starts, he’s 0-2 with a terrible 9.00 ERA and 1.889 WHIP. Overall, Colorado starters now have an ugly 5.48 ERA in 11 games since the All-Star break.
Both today’s starters pitched in this series back in early June and De La Rosa was arguably better. He got the “W” and allowed three hits and three runs in five innings. Earlier in that series, Nicasio got a “no decision,” allowing seven hits and four runs, also lasting five innings.While the teams split that 4-game series, the Dodgers remain a healthy 29-16 (+16.9) against Colorado, the past few seasons. All things considered, I feel a price very close to the “pick’em” range is more than fair. Consider LA.