Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals +114 MLB odds (July 7th 2011)
Visit Touthouse.com for more expert MLB picks from Ben Burns

Burns ran his streak on top rated plays to 16-1 yesterday. Here he takes a look at tonight’s Detroit/KC matchup. The Tigers are favored for this evening’s opener. They’ve got the better overall record and will likely be a popular choice. I feel the Royals have a solid shot at scoring the upset though. Let’s check it out. The Royals have won two straight and three of their last four. With a win tonight, they can move back to .500 (24-24) at home for the season.

The Tigers won yesterday but still lost two of three vs. the Angels. They had to travel from the West Coast after yesterday’s game and are now 19-23 away from Detroit on the season. That brings them to a money-burning 84-122 (-34.2) on the road, the past 2 1/2 seasons. Duffy got roughed up on the road (at Coors Field) last time out, giving up five runs in five innings. (He did have 6 K’s and only 1 walk, so it wasn’t like he was out of control.) His most recent home start saw him hold the Cubs to two runs through seven innings though and he’ll have the advantage of starting against the Tigers for the first time.

Scherzer was even worse than Duffy last time out. He gave up nine runs (6 earned) while lasting only two innings. Also, in his last road start, he gave up six runs in six innings. In seven road starts, he’s got a terrible 6.63 ERA and 1.703 and has given up a whopping 10 home runs. While Scherzer has pitched well at home vs. the Royals, his last start at KC saw him get rocked for nine hits and five runs in just five innings. He took the loss, as the Royals won 7-3.

With both starters having “questionable” numbers, its more important than ever to consider the relievers. Duffy is supported by a KC bullpen which has a solid 3.67 ERA and 1.334 WHIP on the season. Scherzer is supported by a Detroit bullpen which has a poor 4.85 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the season. On the road, those numbers swell to an ugly 5.50 ERA and 1.569 WHIP. All things considered, in my opinion, getting the Royals as an underdog seems more than fair. Consider KC.