MLB Picks: July 2nd 2012
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -120
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Tampa Bay is coming off a rough series against the Tigers where it lost three of four and going back it is 1-6 over its last seven games. The Rays have fallen seven and a half games behind the Yankees in the American League East so stating that this is an important series would be an understatement. The good news is that the Rays are just a game and a half out of the two Wild Card spots and facing the Yankees have not been an issue of late as they have won seven straight meetings at home.

New York is hot but coming into this game as an underdog is telling us something. The Yankees are coming off a series split with the White Sox thanks to winning the final two games over the weekend and going back to late May, they are 27-9 over their last 36 games. While the offense gets most of the pub, the pitching has been the catalyst over this stretch and short-term, the starters have a 2.80 ERA over their last 10 games. The Yankees are 0-4 in their last four games as a road underdog between +110 and +150.

Freddy Garcia is back in the rotation as he is taking the spot of the injured C.C. Sabathia and he is the reason the Yankees are dogged here. He made four starts in April and it was a disaster as he posted a 12.51 ERA by allowing 22 runs in 31 innings. He got shipped to the bullpen where he was rarely used as he made only 10 relief appearances in two month so he is far from sharp. He is going to be on a limited pitch count so it will be up to the Rays to get after him early and often.

Matt Moore gets the call for Tampa Bay and it has been a season of ups and downs. He lasted 7.1 innings last time out but gave up four runs and that was just the second time over his last nine starts that he has allowed more than three runs. He has pitched well at home with a 3.78 ERA in nine starts with five of those resulting in quality outings. He has faced the Yankees only once and while it was last year and he went just five innings, he allowed no runs while striking out 11 hitters. 3* (920) Tampa Bay Rays -Matt Fargo