MLB Picks: August 29th 2012
San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros +1.5 -105
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I know the Houston Astros have little to play for right now, but they are showing too good of value on the Run Line tonight to pass them up. Asking San Francisco to win by two runs is simply asking too much.

Barry Zito is getting way too much love from oddsmakers in this one. The left-hander is 10-8 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 25 starts, including 1-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in his last three outings. Zito is 3-3 with a 5.09 ERA in seven career starts against Houston.

Dallas Keuchel is not getting the love he deserves tonight for Houston. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in six home starts in 2012. He is averaging 6.6 innings/start at home, where he has clearly been at his best all season.

San Francisco is 30-56 against the run line (-31.1 Units) vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 7-22 against the run line (-17.6 Units) vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 9-1 against the run line (+10.5 Units) in home games after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Astros on the Run Line.

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