Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL Pick: Under 5.5 goals -110 odds (November 22nd 2011)
CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S PREMIUM NHL PICKS

We’re able to get “plus money” on the “under 5.5″ goals here. To put that another way, we’re able to get the “under” as a slight underdog. I feel that’s providing us with solid value. For the season, the Lightning have seen the “under” go 4-3 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Meanwhile, the Leafs have seen the “under” go 5-2, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. That’s a combined 9-5 (64%) mark. Keep in mind the underdog return on the “under” here. The Lightning lost 4-2 last time out. They’ve still seen three of their last five games fall below the total though. Those five games average just 4.8 combined goals. The Leafs did score seven goals vs. Washington recently, which was impressive. However, they’ve still seen three of their last four games stay below the total. The “outburst” against the Capitals was the only time in their last eight games in which the Leafs had scored more than three goals. In those other seven games, they averaged a mere 1.57 goals. The Leafs last visit here was on 1/25. The Lightning won that one by a score of 2-0. Including that result, the “under” is 3-0 the last three times that the Lightning hosted the Leafs. Going back further finds the “under” at 8-3-1 the Leafs’ last 12 visits here. Consider grabbing the “plus money” with the “under” 5.5 here. -Ben Burns