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Home > MLB Picks > Padres vs. Reds Betting Odds & Pick from Will Rogers: August 7th 2017

Padres vs. Reds Betting Odds & Pick from Will Rogers: August 7th 2017

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB Betting Pick: Cincy -114 odds (August 7th 2017)

The set-up: Cincy’s Joey Votto needs just one more HR to reach 30 in a season for the first time since his 2010 MVP campaign but so many of his dingers have gone to waste on this last-place club. The Reds have lost 17 of 23 since the All-Star break and get set to open a four-game series with the visiting San Diego Padres on Monday, as the lone team in the NL Central to have lost touch with the other four teams. The Red are 45-66, 13 1/2 games out of first, while their four division rivals are all with 4 1/2 games of each other. The Padres have the misfortune of playing in the NL West, where the Dodgers own MLB’s best record at 79-32. The Padres are 49-61, 4 1/2 games better than the Reds, but a whopping 29 1/2 games back of the Dodgers! San Diego swept three from Cincinnati at home by a combined score of 19-7 earlier this year and would need just one victory in this four-game set to clinch the season series for the fourth consecutive campaign.

The pitching matchup: Jhoulys Chacin (11-7 & 3.99 ERA) will take the ball for San Diego, opposed by Tim Adleman (5-9 & 5.42 ERA) of Cincinnati. Chacin’s 11 victories on a 49-win team are impressive and he comes into this contest 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA over his last 10 starts, including a win and seven solid innings pitched against the Reds at home June 14. That gives him a 2-2 record (3.06 ERA) in five career starts vs. the Reds (teams are 2-3). In a stark contrast to Chacin as of late, Adleman has only one quality start in his last eight appearances and finished July at 0-5 with a 7.34 ERA in six starts (Reds were 1-5). He has never faced San Diego.

The pick: Sure, Chacin is the pitching much better right now but let’s not ignore the fact that he owns a 7.35 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 10 road starts in 2017. Meanwhile, Adleman is a respectable 7-5 in his career at home (Reds are 9-8 in his 17 home starts since 2016). I’ll back the Reds in this one.

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