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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Week 15 NFL Prediction: December 17th 2016

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Week 15 NFL Prediction: Dolphins -2 (December 17th 2016)
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The Dolphins have been flying under the radar for weeks now. They have won seven of their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Baltimore Ravens. This team is showing a ton of fight down the stretch as they currently sit tied with the Denver Broncos for the final wild card spot in the AFC at 8-5 on the year.

While the Dolphins have a lot to play for right now, the Jets simply do not. They pretty much packed it in in their most recent home game, an ugly 10-41 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They showed some fight last week in rallying from a 14-0 deficit to beat the 49ers in overtime, but that’s a 49ers team that has now lost 12 straight. I think that win is keeping this line lower than it should be as the Jets would be bigger dogs had they lost it.

I know Ryan Tannehill will miss a start for the first time in his career, but that’s OK because the Dolphins have one of the best backups in the business. There’s a reason Matt Moore has stuck around as a backup for most of the last decade, and it’s certainly not because he can’t play. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive last week against the Cardinals in a downpour.

Moore is better than any quarterback on the Jets’ roster in my opinion. Since they are out of playoff contention, the Jets are giving third-stringer Bryce Petty a shot down the stretch. Petty played OK against an awful 49ers defense last week, going 23-of-35 for 257 yards with an interception and zero touchdowns.  But he didn’t play well against a bad Colts defense the week before, and this Dolphins’ defense is much better than both the Colts and 49ers.

Most teams have a good home-field advantage, but the Jets aren’t one of them. The fans won’t support them down the stretch, so actually playing at home is a disadvantage for them. This will feel like a home game for the Dolphins. The Jets laid an egg in their last home game on Monday Night Football against the Colts, and they are now just 1-5 at home this season.

The road team has actually dominated this series as well, furthering the notion that home field means nothing. The road team is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings. The road team is also 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Aside from the injury to Tannehill, the Dolphins are very healthy. The same cannot be said for the Jets. They had 12 players listed as did not participate or as a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. Five starters did not participate in RB Matt Forte, RT Brent Qvale, LB Lorenzo Mauldin, NT Steve McLendon and CB Buster Skrine. The top two receivers in Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa were limited participants. Not to mention, the Jets are without their glue at center in Nick Mangold.

The good news for Moore is that he can hand the ball off to Jay Ajayi and have success as the Dolphins average 4.5 yards per carry this season. The Jets have surrendered an average of 148 rushing yards per game in their last five contests. They gave up a whopping 248 yards on the ground to the 49ers last week and were fortunate to win.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) – with a poor first half defense – 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Dolphins Saturday.

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Lions vs. Giants Week 15 NFL Pick from GamePlan Sports: December 18th 2016

Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants
Week 15 NFL Pick: Giants -3.5 points (December 18th 2016)
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GIANTS (-3.5) OVER LIONS—Here’s two teams that appear to be headed for the Playoffs despite not looking all that overwhelming for the vast majority of the season. And they’ve done so by both being a LOT better than anyone expected on the defensive side of the field. But the key to this one will be the home field advantage as each team has been really good at home, each posting 6-1 records on their home turf. The Giants are fresh off their biggest win of the season as they knocked off the Dallas Cowboys last week, handing the red-hot Cowboys their first loss since…week one when the Giants pulled off a great finish down in Dallas. The bottom line here is that the New York defense seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses. Sure, they did have a stumble two weeks ago with a road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that team is REALLY good when everyone is healthy and the Steelers finally have Big Ben, AB and LeVeon Bell all on the field at the same time. So the Giants do appear to be heading in the right direction.

And while Detroit is also 9-4, they have won several very close games with amazing 4th Quarter comebacks and even last week against the lowly Chicago Bears, the Lions needed a late drive to pull off a win at home. Matthew Stafford is having a very good year, but the bottom line here is that the Lions have been living dangerously on a weekly basis and that’s probably not a great idea against a New York team led by Eli Manning who knows how to finish games.

We would LOVE this play if the line was 3 or less, but even as a 3.5 point favorite, the Giants are worth a solid look this weekend.

Detroit vs. Washington NBA Betting Prediction from Brandon Shively: December 16th 2016

Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards
NBA Prediction: Washington +1.5 points (December 16th 2016)
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There comes a time when it’s ‘buy low’ signal on a team. That’s the case tonight with the Wizards playing at home where they are listed as a small homedog to a basic pick em. The Wizards had won the previous 4 meetings vs the Pistons before falling last year at Detroit in a game John Wall did not play. Wall is playing at a high level as of late and has a 19.4 ppg career average vs the Pistons. Wall is averaging 26.9 ppg and 10 assist in 7 games this month.

The Wizards are 4-0 SU the last 4 home meetings vs the Pistons. They have been at least a 2 point favorite in these games and have won them by 4, 4, 12, and a 43 point win last year. The Pistons are only averaging 94 ppg their last 12 trips to Washington. Going back to 2009, they have only been a road favorite 3 times (2011-12) and they were only a -1, -1, and -1.5 point road favorite. My point is there is solid value here with the Wizards at this price.

Now, are the Pistons improved this year? The short answer is yes, but there are still flaws in their team and one of those is consistency. They are 6-9 SU on the road this year. While they have won their last 2 road games, beating the Timberwolves and Mavericks doesn’t merit a lot of credit.

The Wizards have been playing good at home lately. They have won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 with the lone loss being vs the Magic. It was a tough spot for the Wizards who were playing on a back to back and off a 3 game road trip.

Detroit has a revenge game tomorrow night vs the Pacers. They are 0-2 this year on the road on the front end of a back to back when their next game is home.

Again, I think the value is there in this game. The value is present because of the Wizards shortcomings early in the season. Now is the time to ‘Buy’ and I will advise a 1* play on the Washington Wizards tonight.


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