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Jets vs. Patriots Over/Under Betting Pick & Odds from Steve Janus: September 12th 2013

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Over/Under Betting Pick: Under 43.5 -110 odds (September 12th 2013)

I’m not a big fan of the spread in this one. The Jets needed a miracle late to beat a Tampa Bay team that I think isn’t as good as people are expecting and the Patriots offense has been completely depleted with injuries at both running back and wide receiver.

You can never feel comfortable betting the UNDER with Tom Brady and the Patriots playing at home, but I feel that’s the best option in this one. What got lost in the Patriots win over the Bills in Week 1 is how well the defense played in that game. New England held Buffalo to just 286 yards of total offense. With the Jets starting rooking quarterback Geno Smith, I can’t see New York putting up a big number after managing just 18 points vs Tampa Bay.

On the other side of things, New England lost two key players in running back Shane Vereen and wide out Danny Amendola. Vereen had 101 rushing yards and caught 7 passes for 58 yards, while Amendola had 10 receptions for 104 yards. There’s just not a lot of options left for Brady, especially with Rob Gronkowski still out and backup tight end Zach Sudfeld doubtful with a hamstring injury. Rex Ryan and the Jets defense played well against an explosive Tampa Bay offense and are more than capable of keeping the Patriots offense in check.

The UNDER falls into a strong system. Any time you have a team that is coming off an upset win as an underdog (Jets) vs a team off a non-cover in a win as a favorite, the UNDER has gone 50-20 (71.4%) when it’s listed between 42.5 and 49 points. BET THE UNDER!

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Alabama vs. Texas A&M College Football Betting Pick for September 14th 2013

Alabama vs. Texas A&M
College Football Betting Pick: Bama -7.5 -110 odds (September 14th 2013)

Alabama has won 13 consecutive games away from home and 12 of those 13 wins have come by 10 points or more. We recommend laying the points with the motivated and revenge-minded road favorite in this game on Saturday afternoon.

Alabama had this game circled in red after losing 29-24 to Texas A&M as 13.5-point home favorites last season. That was the Crimson Tide’s only loss last season, and it was just their third home loss over the last five years. Alabama comes into this game off a bye week so they’ve had extra time to get ready for this revenge game in College Station. Don’t be quick to downgrade Alabama’s poor offensive performance in their season opener against Virginia Tech. The Hokies have one of the best defenses in the country so we’re willing to give Alabama’s offense a pass for that poor performance. Alabama’s defense was stout against Virginia Tech. The Crimson Tide held the Hokies to only 10 points on 212 yards of total offense with 77 of those yards coming on one play. The Crimson Tide’s defense got shredded last year by A&M, and they’ll be out to make amends for that ugly display of football.

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Texas A&M has rolled in their first two games; the Aggies have won their two games by a combined score of 117-59. But wins over inferior teams Rice and Sam Houston State mean absolutely nothing. Texas A&M is taking the biggest step-up in class versus Alabama in this game. When A&M beat Alabama last season, the Aggies already had nine games under their belt. They were battled tested in games against Florida, Mississippi, and LSU. Those games prepared them for Alabama. The Aggies don’t have that luxury this season, and facing a pair of cupcakes in no way prepares them for what they’ll face in the Crimson Tide. Alabama has won 13 consecutive games away from home and 12 of those 13 wins have come by 10 points or more. We recommend laying the points with the motivated and revenge-minded road favorite in this game on Saturday afternoon.

Stephen Nover’s Week 2 NFL Picks: Broncos vs. Giants Prediction: September 15th 2013

Week 2 NFL Picks: September 15th 2013
Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants
Prediction: Giants +4.5

Peyton Manning and the Broncos got a measure of revenge in high style last Thursday burying Baltimore. The Giants meanwhile committed six turnovers in losing on the road to Dallas.

Does that make the Broncos so superior to the Giants that they should be more than a field goal favorite on the road? Not in my mind.

The Giants lost to Dallas, 36-31, despite a minus 5 turnover ratio. It’s absolutely amazing that New York came that close to pulling off the upset considering the takeaway/giveway disparity.

While the Broncos are living high right now, the Giants already find themselves in an important matchup. As following this matchup, the Giants play three of their next four games on the road. Those away matchups aren’t easy since they are against the Panthers, Chiefs and Bears.

So this becomes a crucial home game for the Giants. New York usually is at its best when in a tough bind. The Giants are 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times as an underdog and 10-4-1 ATS against foes with a winning record.

The Broncos’ defense is down from last year. It’s bad enough that Von Miller is suspended, but he got in more trouble with the law this week. Miller is proving to be a distraction and a pain in the butt.

The Broncos’ secondary is vulnerable. Cornerback Champ Bailey and middle linebacker Wesley Woodyard are questionable.

Eli Manning certainly won’t lack for motivation being 0-2 against brother Peyton. Eli’s three wideouts – Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle – are as good as any trio in the NFL. Talented running back David Wilson could be playing for his starting job. He’ll be sky high for this game, too.

Denver had its big game last week. The Broncos host long-time division rival Oakland on Monday night next week. This game is much bigger for the Giants.

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