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Mets vs. Brewers MLB Odds & Prediction from Larry Ness: May 13th 2017

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Prediction: Milwaukee -104 odds (May 13th 2017)
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The 19-17 Milwaukee Brewers have now won four of their last five, after a series-opening 7-4 triumph Friday night against the Mets, a game in which Milwaukee hit four HRs to pull even with Washington for the major-league lead (55). The Mets have now lost two straight, falling to 16-18. Both the Brewers and the Mets will have new closers Saturday when they play Game 2 of a three-game set at Miller Park. New York placed right-hander Jeureys Familia on the disabled list Friday after he underwent surgery to remove a blood clot in his rough shoulder, while Milwaukee pulled Neftali Feliz from his ninth-inning duties after another rocky outing a day earlier. Feliz was signed over the winter to handle the ninth inning but was 0-4 with a 6.19 ERA in 18 appearances!

The pitching matchup features Robert Gsellman (2-2, 6.54 ERA) for the Mets and Zach Davies (3-2, 5.60 ERA) for the Brewers. Gsellman has lasted more than five innings just once in six starts this season, although he has won each of his last two outings. Gsellman has squared off against both the Marlins and Atlanta three times this year but has yet to face Milwaukee in his brief career. Davies has won three straight decisions, including an outing at Pittsburgh on Sunday in which he allowed two runs and recorded a season-high seven strikeouts over 5.2 innings. Davies has made two starts against New York in his career, going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA (Brewers are 1-1)

Davies seems like the more reliable starter at the moment, having gone 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA in his last four starts (team is 4-0). Meanwhile New York’s starting staff is dealing with injuries plus off-the-field issues and Gsellman hardly looks like a savior with that 6.54 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and opponents .316 BAA. Take Milwaukee.
Good luck…Larry

MLB Pick: Will Rogers betting the Angels -116 over the Tigers on May 13th 2017

Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
MLB Betting Pick: Angels -116 odds (May 13th 2017)
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The set-up: The LA Angels had been held to one run in each of their previous two games (including in a 7-1 loss Thursday night against Detroit) but exploded for 14 hits en route to a 7-0 triumph over the Tigers on Friday night. Mike Trout was back in center field for LA after returning from a hamstring injury as the designated hitter on Thursday. He had a two-run HR, giving him a hit in 18 of his last 19 games. J.D. Martinez was back to the lineup Friday for the Tigers and went 1-for-3 in his season debut. Martinez had been sidelined since suffering a strained ligament in his right foot during spring training. The Tigers fall to 3-4 on their nine-game road trip and are 17-17 on the season, in third-place in the AL Central but just two back of the first-place Twins.The Angels happen to be in second place in the AL West but at 18-20, are already eight games back of the first place Astros!

The pitching matchup: Daniel Norris (2-2 & 4.55 ERA) gets the nod for the Tigers up against Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.31 ERA) of the Angels. Norris has surrendered four ERs in three of his last four outings, including a no-decision at Oakland on Sunday in which he yielded five runs over just 4 2/3 innings. He has worked fewer than five innings in each of those three starts and has not lasted more than six since his season debut (6 1/3). Norris will be facing Los Angeles for the first time in his career. Nolasco has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his seven starts this season but has won only two of those contests. He settled for a no-decision at Oakland on Monday, despite giving up just two runs on five hits while striking out a season-high 10 in seven innings. Nolasco has made nine career starts against Detroit, going 2-4 with a 4.09 ERA (teams are 3-6).

The pick: Norris was traded to the Detroit Tigers along with Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt in exchange for David Price back in 2015 and was considered the “key player” in that deal according to the Tigers. However, the Tigers announced that Norris would start the 2016 season on the disabled list, due to a lower back issue suffered during spring training. Norris would make just 13 starts in 2016, finishing the season with a 4–2 record and a 3.38 ERA (Tigers were 8-5 in his starts). Much was expected from him in 2017 but so far, that hasn’t been the case. Nolasco’s looked good in three of his last four outings, posting a 2.41 ERA in those three, along with a 17-2 KW ratio. I’ll side with the Angels.

NHL Pick: Bet the ‘Over’ in the Nashville vs. Anaheim game on May 12th 2017

Nashville Predators vs. Anaheim Ducks
NHL Betting Pick: Over 5 goals -120 odds (May 12th 2017)
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The set-up: The Anaheim Ducks finally put an end to their demonizing streak of Game 7 postseason failures on their home ice with their 2-1 win over the Oilers on Wednesday. However, there is no rest for the weary as Anaheim will host the upstart Nashville Predators tonight in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals at the Honda Center. The eighth-seeded Predators swept the top-seed Blackhawks in the first round and then eliminated the Blues in six games in the second round, advancing to the conference finals for the first time in franchise history. However, the Ducks will well remember that Nashville won Game 7 in Anaheim a year ago,eliminating the Ducks from the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season in a Game 7 on their home ice. That led to the dismissal of head coach Bruce Boudreau.

Nashville: The Predators’ playoff run is due in large part to the remarkable renaissance of veteran goaltender Pekka Rinne. He’s overcome an uneven regular season by allowing just 14 goals in 10 playoff games, including a pair of shutouts in the sweep of top-seeded Chicago. Rinne’s led Nahville to an 8-2 record, posting a 1.37 GAA with a .951 save percentage. The defensemen, despite the blockbuster offseason trade of longtime captain Shea Weber for fellow blueliner P.K. Subban, are getting it done at both ends of the ice by amassing nine goals and 27 points in the postseason.

Anaheim: Captain Ryan Getzlaf got off to a miserable start to the season with only two goals in his first 26 games but has been superb in the playoffs with eight goals and seven assists. Linemate Corey Perry came alive in the last four games versus Edmonton with a goal and five assists plus 33-goal scorer Rickard Rakell tallied in four straight games against the Oilers. The defense is also providing healthy offensive production with a combined three goals and 20 assists. However, goalie John Gibson remains a question mark. He has surrendered at least three goals in six of his last nine appearances.

The pick: I noted Gibson’s shortcomings above and will add that he lost both playoff starts against the Predators a year ago. Sure, Rinne’s been a ‘tough nut to crack’ but Anaheim is 22-12 since the start of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the best winning percentage (.647) of all teams in that span. Expect a goal or two more than the over/under number indicates.


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