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Patriots vs. Giants Prediction: NFL Betting Picks for November 6th 2011

November 6th, 2011

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
NFL Betting Prediction: New England Patriots -8.5 (November 6th 2011)
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Motivated by last week’s loss at Pittsburgh, and further fueled by a 17-14 upset loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, expect the Patriots to take care of business on their home field this afternoon.

At first glance you might think this spread seems a little large. But consider that the Pats are 3-0 at home this season where they have defeated the Chargers, Jets and Cowboys by an average score of 28.3 to 19.3. Plus, New England has been covering in the chalk for years. The Patriots are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Patriots are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a SU loss.

The Giants must pressure Tom Brady, like they did in the Super Bowl, to pull off the upset, but I don’t see it happening with leading sack man Jason Pierre-Paul being limited with a neck injury. Plus, that New England team relied on stretching the defense with deep balls to Randy Moss. Protection had to hold up longer on those deep routes. Brady is able to get the ball out much quicker in this very effective and efficient dink and dunk offense.

Injuries to leading receiver Hakeem Nicks and leading rusher Ahmad Bradshaw will also hurt New York in this one. The Giants are 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game since the beginning of the 2009 season. Expect this trend to hold true here. Lay the points.

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