Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (August 30th 2009)
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The San Francisco Giants will play host to the Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon for Game Three of their three-game weekend set leading the series 2-0 after winning 5 to 3 on Saturday. Our interest in this game is on the total, we know that 6 of 6 played in San Francisco in this series have fallen below the posted total including Saturday’s game which had a total of 8.5. Over the last three seasons this series has seen 27 of 47 go under the posted total and 8 of 13 this year overall. When these two teams have gotten together on the West Coast 15 of 21 games have fallen below the posted total including all five this season. Colorado will send Jason Hammel to the bump with his 6-4 record and an ERA of 3.04 on the road this season. Hammels is 4-0 under his last four versus teams from the NL West, 5-1-1 under as an underdog of -110 to -150 and 5-1-1 under following a quality start in his last outing. The Rockies are 14-6-1 under when playing in Game Three of a series, 19-7-2 under on the road facing a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or better and 16-5-2 under as an underdog in this price range. San Francisco will counter with Matt Cain who is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.28 at home. Cain is 6-0 under when starting in Game Three of a series, 10-2 under following a quality start in this last outing and 12-4 under when the total for the game is 7 to 8.5. San Francisco is ranked 2 in pitching with an ERA of 3.54 and opponents are batting .237 against them this season. Colorado is ranked 10 in pitching with an ERA of 4.21 with opponents batting .263 against them. Neither team is in the Top 10 in hitting with San Francisco ranked 20 with a batting average of .259 averaging 4.0 runs per game. Colorado is ranked 18 in hitting with a batting average of .259 averaging 5.0 runs per game. With the two pitchers starting for each team today we do not expect either team to reach their current average of runs scored. The Rockies are 13-3 under (+9.6) in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season and the Giants are 13-4 under (+8.6) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season. With solid fundamental, situational and technical support for the under we will play this game to fall below the posted total.
Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies / San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5
Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Free MLB Pick: Over 10 Runs (August 30th 2009)
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Two of the first three games of this series have stayed ‘Under’ but we should see that even out today. The Orioles are averaging 4.1 rpg on the road which is 21st in baseball and their .245 road average is good for 22nd in the Majors. Playing at home is a different story however as they average a full rpg more which is 10th highest in baseball and their .295 average at home tops all other teams. The Indians have been a solid offensive team away from home. They are averaging 5.6 rpg on the road which is ties for the second highest mark in baseball and they are hitting .280 which is good for third best in the bigs. They are hitting .340 against left-handed pitching over their last 10 games and get to face lefty Brian Matusz this afternoon. He has made five starts this season and none of those have been quality outings as he has posted a 6.46 ERA and 2.03 WHIP covering 23.2 innings. At home, his numbers are 6.35 and 2.47 respectively as he has made only one start at Progressive Field, allowing four runs on 11 hits and three walks in 5.2 innings against the Angels. Cleveland counters with Justin Masterson who was acquired from Boston in the Victor Martinez trade. In four starts for the Indians, he does have one quality outing and in 10 starts overall, he has just three quality performances. He is 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in six road starts and the opposition has hit .291 over those games. The ‘Over’ is 12-3-2 in the Indians last 17 road games against a left-handed starter while the ‘Over’ is 4-1 in the Orioles last five home games against a right-handed starter. 3* Over Cleveland Indians/Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Free MLB Prediction: Minnesota Twins (-130)
Sun August 30th 2009 2:10p
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Minnesota has won six of eight and eight of their last 11 games and will wrap up a home series with the Rangers on Sunday. Scott Baker has been money as of late going 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his last three starts, giving up just five runs in 21.3 innings pitched. One of those three wins was a 5-4 victory in Texas over the Rangers beating Kevin Millwood on August 19th. Baker has beaten the Rangers twice this year, also winning July 18th in Arlington giving up one run and six hits in eight innings of work. Texas hits just .235 against him with Michael Young (4-16), Hank Blalock (1-10), David Murphy (1-10), Josh Hamilton (2-9), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (0-5), Chris Davis (0-3) and Brandon Boggs (0-3) all struggling against Baker.
Kevin Millwood is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts giving up 11 runs and 17 hits in 17 innings pitched. Millwood has yet to beat the Twins in his career, going 0-7 with a 6.18 ERA and a WHIP of 1.803. As mentioned above, Millwood lost to the Twins in Arlington on the 19th, giving up five runs and seven hits in 5.7 innings pitched. Minnesota hits .333 against Millwood with Orlando Cabrera (28-89), Joe Mauer (9-27), Michael Cuddyer (9-21), Nick Punto (9-19), Justin Morneau (6-16), Jason Kubel (4-13), Delmon Young (3-9), Carlos Gomez (3-9), Brendan Harris (4-8) and Denard Span (2-6) all smacking Millwood around. The Twins are 36-29 at home where they average 5.3 runs per game and bat .274 as a team this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
Sun August 30th 2009 2:05p
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Milwaukee is now 63-66 on the season while Pittsburgh comes in with a 53-74 overall record this year. Pittsburgh is 4-15 this year when playing on Sunday. Pittsburgh is 18-45 on the road this year and 12-28 in day games this season. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.7 runs per game on the road this year. Pittsburgh bullpen has a 4.95 ERA on the road this year. Ross Ohlendorf is 3-6 with a 5.51 ERA on the road this year. Milwaukee is 32-12 overall vs Pittsburgh the last 3 years including 22-1 at home vs Pittsburgh and 5-0 at home against Pittsburgh this year. Suppan is 13-3 overall vs Pittsburgh since 1997. We’ll recommend a small play on Milwaukee today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
San Diego Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Free NFL Pick: San Diego Chargers +3.0 (-110 NFL Odds)
Sat August 29th 2009 8:00p
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The only areas the Chargers stumbled in last week’s football betting match-up was in pass protection (5 sacks allowed) and kick coverage (192 yards), but other than that, the squad churned out a solid effort in its 17-6 win against the Arizona Cardinals. The offense scored a pair of TDs with both Philip Rivers and Billy Volek leading its charge, and the defense limited the Cardinals to less than 300 yards combined offense.
The Falcons 1st team was nearly flawless throughout its 20-13 win at St. Louis. QB Matt Ryan completed 7 of 8 passes for 81 yards and connected with prized off season acquisition TE Tony Gonzalez for his first TD pass of the season. Their ground game also went off accounting for 162 yards combined amongst RBs Michael Turner, Jason Snelling, and Jerious Norwood. What has to worry HC Mike Smith is the fact that he got nothing from QBs D.J. Shockley and John Parker Wilson. The defense stepped up big in each of the Rams red zone appearances limiting them to no points once penetrated.
With this being the game that’s supposed to tell us exactly what type of teams these are, look for both clubs to come out swinging. That said; San Diego is deeper and has better backups than that of Atlanta. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS their L/5 preseason road games, and 3-0 ATS the L/3 seasons when installed an NFLX underdog. Look for the Falcons to put up a fight, but look for the Chargers to get the job done and win on the road for the second week in a row.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelpia Phillies
Free MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -178 (August 29th 2009)
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While still too “expensive” to qualify as one of my “guaranteed” selections, the price on the Phillies has come down enough to the point where I now believe they are offering us some reasonable value. That may sound strange to some, as the Phillies are still a large favorite. However, given the current form of today’s starter, I believe the price could easily be much higher.
Lee has been everything that the Phillies had hoped for – and then some. Indeed, he’s 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA with the Phillies! His teams are now 8-0 in his last eight starts with Lee allowing one earned run or less in seven of those (incl. all five with Philly) and two in the other. Over his last three starts, he’s 3-0 with a 0.37 ERA and 0.708 WHIP.
By comparison, Lowe’s recent numbers look pretty bad. Over his last three starts, he’s gone 1-1 with an ugly 7.47 ERA and an awful 2.042 WHIP. For the season, he’s got a poor 5.11 ERA on the road.
Consider laying the wood with Lee and the champs.