Free MLB Pick: Florida Marlins (-115)
Sat May 17 ‘08 7:10p - Click Here for MLB Odds
The Florida Marlins have now lost four straight after a very hot start, while the Kansas City Royals have won five straight after taking the series opener last night, but we feel that has given some nice line value to the Marlins here.

We are huge fans of Florida southpaw starter Scott Olsen, who is 4-1 with a nice 2.63 ERA and 1.08 WHIP so far, with the Marlins as a team going 7-1 in all of his starts. Olsen has three scoreless outings in his last six starts, and he allowed just one run in one other outing. Even if Olsen is in need of relief, the Marlins still rank 10th in the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 3.41, which barely makes them a Bullpen System play in this spot.

Now Brian Bannister is usually solid for the Royals, but he has had terrible difficulties on the road lately. In his last two starts away from home, Bannister was lit up for seven earned runs in just three innings in Texas, and for five earned runs in five innings in Oakland. Throw in the fact that the Marlins reached him for four runs and nine hits in six innings in Kansas City last season, and we look for the Florida offense to have some success tonight.

That should be all the support that Olsen and the fine Marlins pen need.

MLB Free Pick: Marlins -115

Free MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins (115)
Sat May 17 ‘08 8:05p - Click Here for MLB Betting Odds
The Minnesota Twins improved to 26-8 in their last 34 interleague games by beating the Colorado Rockies here last night, and we look for that success to continue tonight with Livan Hernandez on the bump.

Hernandez is 6-1, albeit with a mediocre 3.90 ERA, and the Twins are 8-1 in all of his starts. He does have three straight Quality Starts though, all of them Minnesota victories, and he has a much better 2.05 ERA over those outings. Also, Hernandez has five Quality Starts in his last five appearances vs. the Rockies, with two of those coming here in the altitude of Colorado.

The Rockies counter with rookie Greg Reynolds, who was not impressive in his Major League debut at San Diego. Reynolds allowed four earned runs and eight baserunners in 5.2 innings vs. what is currently the worst-hitting team in baseball, and the jury is still out on how he will handle pitching in Colorado.

Finally, the Rockies have now lost eight consecutive interleague games, and we are not convinced they deserve to be favored here.

MLB Free Pick: Twins +115

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers u10.5
Fri May 16 ‘08 8:05p
Shawn Chacon the Astros right-handed hurler here today against the Rangers has made six quality starts, this season, which is the most from his teams entire pitching rotation. He does not have any wins to show for it, but his stable 2.81 ERA is indicative of his 5 quality away efforts. His pitching opponent from the Rangers Sidney Ponson has for the most part ,also been in good form , recording a 2-0 record along with a stingy 3.16 ERA in 4 starts. I expect these two hurlers should help keep this contest on the low side of the number. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 9-2 in Astros last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Ponson. Under is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 home games with the total set at 9-10.5 . Play UNDER

New York Yankees (135)
Fri May 16 ‘08 7:05p
Now we have all the respect in the world for Johan Santana, but we simply cannot pass up the New York Yankees at this generous price at home as they open up the Subway Series vs. the New York Mets.

Now Santana is 4-2, and the Mets are 6-2 as a team when he has started, but he has been far from the best pitcher in baseball yet this season. While most pitchers would be happy with a 3.04 ERA, that is actually high by Johan’s standards, and he uncharacteristically allowed 10 hits in six innings vs. the Cincinnati Reds in a 12-6 Mets victory in his last start.

His mound opponent Darrell Rasner has actually pitched very well in his two starts since being recalled by the Bronx Bombers. He allowed just two runs and five hits in six innings in his seasonal debut vs. the Seattle Mariners, and he followed that up with an arguably better outing in Detroit, where he allowed two runs and only four hits, again in six innings. Also, he is supported by a Yankees bullpen that ranks sixth in the majors with a 3.23 ERA, making them a Bullpen System play here.

It won’t be easy vs. Santana, but we would feel very comfortable if the Yankees could bring a lead into the late innings at this rather inflated price.

MLB Free Pick: Yankees +135

Tampa Bay Rays (-105)
Fri May 16 ‘08 8:15p
The Tampa Bay Rays are the biggest surprise in baseball this year, and we look for their success to continue when they visit the St. Louis Cardinals to kick off interleague play.

In all honesty, we are not thrilled with either starting pitcher here, but we feel the Tampa Bay bullpen is light years ahead of the Cardinals, and therein lies the key to this contest. The Rays have won seven out of eight games, and they qualify under our Bullpen System here. While that angle is just 32-31 so far this season, it is still +3.26 units and has yet to go into the red at any point. Remember that our Bullpen System has averaged +97 units the last three years.

Andy Sonnanstine has gone 5-1 for Tampa Bay, but it has not been pretty, as evidenced by his high 5.07 ERA. In fact, he has been downright brutal in his last two starts, allowing a total of nine runs and 18 hits in 11 innings, yet the red-hot Rays found a way to win both of those games. In all fairness, Sonnanstine did have three straight Quality Starts prior to those last two debacles, including two outings where he allowed one run or less. Should he repeat his last two efforts however, it is certainly reassuring to know that the Rays’ bullpen has a collective 3.18 ERA, ranking third in the American League and fifth in the Major Leagues.

Braden Looper of the Cardinals practically mirrors Sonnanstine in that his rather high 4.21 ERA has ballooned over his last two starts, when he allowed a total of eight earned runs and 18 baserunners in 14.1 innings. The difference though is that Looper does not expect to get much support from a bullpen that ranks 22nd with a 4.30 ERA after deposed closer Jason Isringhausen imploded again yesterday.

Finally, the Rays’ style of play ironically resembles the Cardinals during their glory days, based on speedsters getting on base and advancing either via steals and hit-and-run plays, except that Tampa Bay now does it better. If their bullpen remains as strong as it has been so far, the entire league will realize that Tampa Bay is not a fluke.

MLB Free Pick: Rays -105

Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels u8.5 (105)
Thu May 15 ‘08 10:05p
Looking to earn his club a split in this four-game set will be the White Sox Javier Vazquez. This will be his eighth start of the season. He’s 4-3 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and has only allowed 18 hits and six earned runs in his last 21 1/3rd innings of work. Chicago is 2-2 in his road starts this season splitting his last two starts on the road against Toronto and Seattle. In his career against the Angels, Vazquez is 0-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three total starts. He last faced them as a member of the NY Yankees back in 2004.

John Garland will make his first start against his former mates after being traded to LA in the off-season. To date, he’s 4-3 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.41 WHIP allowing 58 hits and 28 runs (25 earned) in a shade over 52 innings of work. However, He hasn’t fared well in Angels Stadium going 2-2. His ERA balloons to 6.04 and he’s been tagged for 28 hits and 17 runs in just 25+ innings of work.

This has been a very low scoring series of late with the under cashing in 7 of the L/9 times they’ve squared off in LA, and in 12 of the L/16 overall meetings. Its also 5-2-1 ATS the L/8 times the Angels were installed home underdogs, and 11-3 in the White Sox L/14 road games.

Toronto Blue Jays (-120)
Thu May 15 ‘08 1:10p
Dustin McGowan of the Toronto Blue Jays is coming off of his worst start of the season vs. a Cleveland Indians team that he has always struggled with, but he should get back on track vs. the Minnesota Twins here this afternoon.

McGowan was torched for nine earned runs in just 3.2 innings by Cleveland, but he had allowed three runs or less in six of his first seven starts and he allowed just four earned runs in his other outing, so we will grant him a Mulligan for that Indians debacle. McGowan was brilliant in his only start vs. the Twins last season, allowing just four hits in 7.1 scoreless innings, so we see no reason why had can’t return to his dominant form in this spot. He also has the support of a Toronto bullpen that ranks fifth in baseball with a 3.26 ERA.

The Twins counter with rookie southpaw Glen Perkins, who was hardly awe-inspiring in his Major League debut. Sure, he somehow escaped with only allowing three earned runs in six innings, but he did allow nine hits, and he is now facing a Toronto offense that may be awakening from a season long slump, as the Blue Jays have scored 11 runs in the first two games of this series.

Toronto has now won five straight head-to-head meetings with Minnesota, and we look for the Jays to finish off the three-game road sweep today.

MLB Free Pick: Blue Jays -120

Oakland Athletics (135)
Thu May 15 ‘08 12:05p
The Cleveland Indians have taken the first two games of this series, but we look for the Oakland Athletics to avoid the sweep in this battle of young southpaws.Now, we are aware that Cleveland’s Aaron Laffey has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts, covering 14 innings, and that the Indians starting pitchers have now tossed an unbelievable 43.1 consecutive scoreless innings. However, all of that is built in to this inflated line, and as great as Laffey has been, this line gives too much respect to someone that has made just three starts this season.

Besides, when Oakland’s Greg Smith allowed four runs at Texas in his last start, it snapped an impressive streak of six consecutive starts by Smith of allowing three earned runs or less to start the season. He is facing a Cleveland lineup here that is batting a pathetic .203 over the last 10 games, and Oakland has the far superior bullpen between these two teams, in fact leading the American League with a bullpen ERA of 2.95.

If the A’s could scratch out some runs vs. Laffey here, and that incredible scoreless streak by Cleveland starters has to end eventually, we like our chances with Smith and the Oakland pen at a nice price.

MLB Free Pick: Athletics +135

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks u8.0
Thu May 15 ‘08 9:40p
The Colorado Rockies and the Arizona DBacks prepare to send two top notch hurlers to the hill to face each other , tonight in Chase Field. The Rockies thrower Aaron Cook, is on a six game winning streak, and has garnered a stingy 2.26 ERA on the season,looking very much like the most consistent contributor in his teams rotation at the moment. The DBacks will return fire, with the ace of their staff, Brandon Webb who has won all 8 of his starts this year, while recording a extremely viable 2.41 ERA. Considering the pitching matchup, a low scoring confrontation is on the agenda. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starters like Webb. Play under Play under

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays u8.5
Wed May 14 ‘08 7:10p - Click Here For MLB Betting Odds
James Shields the Tampa Bay Devils Rays , starting hurler against the Yankees tonight is in great current form, and off a one hit shut out against the Angels in his last start . The Rays right hander has been particularly strong at home this season, allowing no runs in his last 18 innings of work here in Tropicana Field , giving up just 3 hits in the process. Red hot veteran thrower Mike Mussina returns fire for the NY Yankees. The zoo crew pitcher is in great form , winning 4 straight starts, while allowing just 8 earned runs during that span. Considering how well these guys are throwing the ball , it will be an easy decision to back this contest to stay under the total. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 8-0 in Yankees last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or more. Under is 8-1 in Rays last 9 home games. Yankees have gone under in 20 of 29 against right-handed starters like Shields this season Play under - Courtesy of Alex Smart

Florida Marlins (125)
Wed May 14 ‘08 7:10p - Click Here for MLB Betting Picks
The Florida Marlins have been cooled off by the Cincinnati Reds so far, losing the first two games of this four-game series, but we look for Florida to get back in the win column tonight.

Ricky Nolasco is generally regarded as a weak link in the Florida rotation, but he has allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts. Granted, he went six innings in two of those outings and just five innings in the other, but we would actually take a repeat of those efforts here, as we have great confidence in a Marlins bullpen that ranks fourth in the Major League with a collective 3.17 ERA. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati pen ranks 25th at 4.34, making the Fish a Bullpen System play here.

Bronson Arroyo has been a real mystery for the Reds, as he is simply too talented to have a 7.14 ERA and a horrendous 1.71 WHIP after eight starts. Still, whatever the reason, Arroyo just can’t get going and he was not sharp the last time he faced the Marlins, allowing four earned runs and 12 baserunners in six innings. Furthermore, the bullpen cannot be counted on for relief at this point either.

Florida had won seven straight games entering this series, and we look for them to start a new streak tonight.

MLB Free Pick: Marlins +125 - Courtesy of LT Profits

Mike Rose Free MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Tue May 13 ‘08 10:05p - Click Here to Buy Mike Rose’s Expert MLB Predictions
White Sox skipper, Ozzie Guillen, will send left-hander John Danks to the mound this evening for his eighth start of the season. He’s 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. In just under 40 innings of work, Danks has allowed 34 hits and 14 earned runs while striking out 30 and walking 10. The Angels have hit lefties better than righties this season (.285 vs. L compared to .263 vs. R), so he’ll have his work cut out for him. However, he’ll be up for the test in his first career start against this franchise knowing he’s allowed two earned runs or less in five straight starts.

Opposing him will be the Angels Jered Weaver and his bloated 5.59 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He owns a personal mark of 2-5 on the year, but the Angels have dropped six of his eight total starts so far. He just got rocked in his last outing against the Kansas City Royals yielding 10 hits and eight earned runs in just 3 1/3rd innings pitched. It was his shortest outing in the big leagues since late April of last season. That said, he’s excelled against Chicago posting a 2-0 mark with a 0.77 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in two career starts.

Chicago is 3-6 as a road underdog between +100 and +125, and they’ve struggled under the evening lights losing 14 of their 22 games this season. The Angels have notched the win column in 6 of their 8 games against starting left-handed pitchers this year, and they’re 6-2 the L/8 times Weaver’s been installed a home chalk in the –110 to –150 range.

Free MLB Baseball Picks: Philadelphia Phillies (-135) - Click Here to Buy LT Profits MLB Picks
Tue May 13 ‘08 7:05p
The Atlanta Braves are just 5-14 on the road this season, so they should have their hands full when the visit the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick may have a high 4.93 ERA, but that figure is skewed by a couple of short outings earlier in the year. Kendrick has now found his form however, with three Quality Starts in his last four appearances, and he allowed two and three runs respectively in his two career starts vs. the Braves, which both came last season. Also, should Kendrick need some relief, Philadelphia now leads the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 2.75.

Jo-Jo has been erratic for the Braves, and his 2.25 ERA is extremely deceptive considering his horrible 1.75 WHIP. We have always felt that WHIP was the much truer indicator of a pitcher’s ability, so it is more likely that Reyes’ ERA will rise to line up with his poor WHIP than the other way around. Also, their may be some fatigue involved for the Braves, who played a doubleheader yesterday.

Look for Kendrick and the fine Phillies bullpen to keep the Atlanta bats in check here.

MLB Free Pick: Phillies -135

Free MLB Baseball Picks: Florida Marlins (150)
Tue May 13 ‘08 7:10p
Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds certainly looks like the real deal, but he also looks overpriced here vs. Mark Hendrickson and the surprising Florida Marlins.

Yes, Volquez is 5-1 with a 1.06 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP overall, and he has yet to allow more than two runs in a game. However, while he did toss seven scoreless innings at the Chicago Cubs in his last start with 10 strikeouts, he did also walk six batters, resulting in a season high 118 pitches thrown. Thus, it would not be inconceivable for Volquez to be slightly off of his game tonight, and given the struggles of the Cincinnati offense this season (last night notwithstanding), and less than perfect outing may not result in a Reds win.

This is because Florida starter Mark Hendrickson is also off to a fine start at 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA, and his fine WHIP of 1.25 is on par with Volquez. Hendrickson has now gone seven consecutive starts without allowing more than three earned runs, and even if he is in need of support, the Marlins are currently tied for third in the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 3.18, making them a Bullpen System play in this spot.

Florida has their seven-game winning streak snapped here last night by a narrow 8-7 score, bu we look for them to start a new streak at a great price tonight.

MLB Free Pick: Marlins +150

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Bob Akmens Free Pick: San Francisco Giants (-125) - Click Here to Buy Bob Akmens Picks
Tue May 13 ‘08 10:15p - Click Here For MLB Odds
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.

The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.

Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –

Again, we have a line that does not accurately reflect reality.

While Houston has the better overall record, the ‘Stros and the Giants have identical .500 records where they are – away and home.

And I guarantee you this – as this season moves on, Houston’s road record will be appreciably lower than .500 and the Giants home-record should be decently above .500. Why? Because that’s the norm. Neither of these teams is exceptional.

Quite the contrary – each is very mediocre – which, by its definition, means middle-of-the-road. And that means each should be +/- some percentage points around .500 – overall, that is.

Face it – almost all people are mediocre. That’s not a knock – that just a fact. It implies that long term, we’re all going to be around .500 in win-lose situations. Economists have a term for this: regression to the mean. That mean being .500.

But mediocre teams like this generally may play .100-.150 points (or more) better at home than on the road. So, I look for both the Astros and the Giants to start regressing to their own home-away means which historically would occur with these sorts of teams.

So, why would I say the line here doesn’t reflect reality?

The starting pitchers. Brandon Backe is a terrible road pitcher. The Astros are 2-8 in his last 10 starts away from home. And Matt Cain? He’s 4-2 his last 6 decisions at home – with an other-worldly (these days, at least) ERA of 2.24 in those affairs.

All the more reason to pick SF here.

Go with the GIANTS as a short -125 favorite in this 10:15 PM ET matchup

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