Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game 7: June 17th 2010
NBA Finals Basketball Betting Preview and Predictions Courtesy of Matt Fargo, a Featured Sports Handicapper on Touthouse.com

The Numbers
The Lakers are -7 for Game Seven of the NBA Finals over the Celtics. Game Six saw the closing line of Los Angeles -6 and this game opened at -6.5 so the number is being shaded toward the favorite. The total is at 187 which is the lowest number in this series thus far but for good reason as the ‘Under’ is 5-1-1 and in some cases 6-1 with four straight coming in.

Another Blowout?
For a series that has gone the distance, it hasn’t been very entertaining.

The smallest margin of victory has been six points, a Boston win in Game Five, while the average margin of victory has been 10.7 ppg. You would think that the Finals would produce more close finishes and important last second possessions but that has not been the case.

What does this mean for Game Seven? It means we are overdue for a fantastic finish as the whole 2010 playoffs owe us as from the start, as it has been pretty much a dud. Who knows if we will actually get it but if you like playing the odds of it happening, you have to like the Celtics to bounce back from a dreadful Game Six.

Looking purely at probabilities, Boston has a 75 percent chance of covering based on the four different outcomes that can take place. If we do see a blowout, the Lakers or Celtics can be on the winning side, therefore a split cover. Should we see a close game, the Lakers or Celtics can again be on the winning side outright but the Celtics would cover in both instances.

Rebounding
When it comes to winning basketball games, any number of factors comes into play such as shooting, turnovers and free throws. In this series, the biggest factor has been rebounding and it has not really been close.

The winning team has had the edge on the glass in all six games thus far. The average margin of the boards per game is 7.1 so it is safe to say who wins the battle of the boards in Game Seven will be the eventual NBA Champion.

If only it were that easy. The issue now is injuries. The Lakers have had a hobbled Andrew Bynum throughout the series so the inside advantage they were thought to have heading in ended up being negated. The Celtics have their own problems how as Kendrick Perkins sprained his knee in Game Six and is doubtful for the season finale.

“He’s a guy that cleans the paint up, let’s say, and not having him there made the Lakers awful long,” Celtics head coach Doc Rivers said. “He’s one of our guys that I think gives us great spirit, gives us a lot of toughness and size. You know, I hope he can play. It would be tough if he can’t.”

Game Seven History Lesson
Only 16 previous NBA Finals have gone to a decisive Game Seven and it has happened only three times since the Lakers and Celtics went the distance in 1984 and the second since the Knicks and Rockets went seven games in 1994.

Home court advantage is obviously big now when it comes to the decisive game and history definitely proves that. Overall, the home team has won 13 of 16 Game Sevens in the NBA Finals. Tightening that up, since the 2-3-2 playoff format of the NBA Finals was instituted in 1985, there have been three Game Sevens and the home team has won all three.

Those three wins were by an average of only 5.3 ppg.

While players and coaches will be treating this game like all others, it is not the same and there are some big names that have never experienced this. This is the first NBA Finals Game Seven for Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, who have played in 393 combined playoff games. Maybe most surprising, neither has Phil Jackson, who has coached in 322 postseason games and won 10 championships.

The 2010 Finals will be the fifth Lakers-Celtics series to go seven games and in the previous four instances, the Celtics have beaten the Lakers by an average of just 4.0 ppg.

Kobe’s Legacy
Kobe Bryant is a future Hall of Famer and one of the greatest players to ever step on an NBA floor. This Game Seven could go a long way in determining exactly where he ranks however.

As mentioned, he has never played in Game Seven in the NBA Finals. Neither did Michael Jordan. Therefore winning a championship in a decisive Game Seven will give Bryant an additional stat that Jordan does not have on his résumé. A win would also give Bryant his fifth NBA Title, tying him with Magic Johnson and trailing Jordan by only one.

Should the Lakers lose, Bryant will have gone down three times compared to Jordan having never lost when going to the NBA Finals. It many not seem like much but it is a pretty big difference and one that Bryant will be compared to forever.

While this game will determine where Bryant currently ranks among the best ever, he isn’t taking it any different. “It’s no different to me,” he said. “I don’t mean to be a buzz kill, but it’s not. I know what’s at stake but I’m not tripping. It’s a game we’ve got to win, simple as that. I’m not going crazy over it.”

Trends
The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
The Lakers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.
The ‘Over’ is 13-6 in the Celtics last 19 games following a double-digit loss.
The ‘Over’ is 7-2-2 in the Lakers last 11 games following a straight up win.
The Celtics are 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics
Free Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +3 -110 odds
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This has been a back and forth series; the “flip flop theory” is in full effect. LA won straight up and covered in Game 1, Boston returned the favour in Game 2, LA won and covered in Game 3, and Boston held court in Game 4. For a number of different reasons, I believe that this trend is going to continue and recommend a play on the LAKERS with the points in Game 5.

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But back to the Lakers in Game 5; this is a spot that LA has done very well in so far in the 2010 post season; it’s 2-1 ATS when tied in a playoff series; but it’s interesting to note that it’s an awesome 7-2 ATS in the same position over the last two years. In exact contrast to those stellar numbers, Boston is just 1-2 ATS in the 2010 post season when tied in a playoff series and just 7-8 ATS over the past two seasons. Although they won and covered the last time out, keep in mind that the Celtics are also a brutal 31-41 ATS this year when playing the roll of favorite. A big reason behind the Celtics Game 4 victory was the difference on the offensive boards; Boston had 16 to LA’s 8. That prompted Lakers coach Phil Jackson to say;

“I was disappointed our guys can’t secure the rebounds, didn’t capture the rebounds,” Jackson said. “We talked about that tonight. We shot better than they did, but that didn’t make the difference in the game. The difference in the game was chances. They had more chances than we did.”

LA collapsed in the fourth quarter allowing the Celtics to break out with 36 points; suffice to say I expect the Lakers, which are in fact the bigger team, to come out with a much more all around concerted effort on both ends of the court.

The “flip flop” theory continues to ring true in the Finals here; great value on the visitors; grab up those points!

And then there were two! After six+ weeks of NBA playoff betting, only two teams remain for the right of capturing the 2009-10 NBA Championship. If the NBA Finals isn’t enough to get your blood boiling, maybe the fact that it’s a grudge match will as the Boston Celtics upended the Los Angeles Lakers in six-games back in the 2008 NBA Finals. LA will also be looking to capture back-to-back championships for the second time under the Phil Jackson regime.

Click here to bet on the Celtics vs. Lakers Championship Series

The Celtics entered the 2010 NBA Playoffs as the Eastern Conference’s fourth overall seed. They disposed of the Miami Heat in the 1st round winning the series 4-1; the C’s went 4-1 ATS and the over cashed in three of the five overall games. Next up was the top seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. Though it fell in Game 1, Boston went on to win four of the next five games and went 4-2 ATS for the series. The Eastern Conference Finals saw them get a chance to avenge their playoff dismissal from a year earlier against the Orlando Magic. They bolted out to a commanding 3-0 lead in the NBA betting series before dropping two in a row to make Game 6 all the more interesting. Those that felt they would be the first team ever to lose a best-of-seven series after going up 3-0 were left with losing tickets after the Celtics posted the 96-84 win to close out the series; They ended up 4-2 ATS in the series and the under cashed in four of the six contests.

Los Angeles missed out on home court advantage throughout the playoffs losing out to Cleveland in the regular season for best overall record, but it still got tabbed the Western Conference’s top overall seed. The defending champs got a scare from the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder in the 1st round, but eventually won the series 4-2 and posted a 3-3 ATS record; the six games split against the closing ‘total.’ Round 2 saw them hook up with what many thought to be a dangerous Utah Jazz outfit, but HC Jerry Sloan’s crew was no match for Kobe and company; The Lakers swept the series and went 3-1 ATS with the over going 3-0-1 ATS. The Western Conference Finals started off as a track meet with both the Suns and Lakers capturing two games with the ‘over’ cashing in all four games. Game 5 saw LA barely survive, but it cruised in Game 6 to punch its tickets to the NBA betting Finals. LA went 3-3 ATS in the series and the over cashed in four of the six games.

These teams met twice in the 2009-10 NBA betting regular season with the road team shockingly picking up a pair of one-point victories. LA won 90-89 as one-point underdogs on January 31st, while Boston answered with an 87-86 victory as 2.5-point underdogs on February 18th. Kobe Bryant did not suit up for the game held in the Staples Center. Each of these teams L/3 games have been decided by a single point and the ‘over’ has cashed in 20 of these rivals L/32 overall battles.

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Free Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 -110 odds
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The Lakers look like the best team in the NBA by far right now and this team is just really peaking right now and they are really looking like one of the great historic championship teams in NBA history and we just think the Suns are in some real trouble here. The Lakers beat a better Utah team twice on the road and we think a sweep might be in order for this series. The Suns just can’t handle the Lakers size and this is creating matchup nightmares that the Lakers have been exploiting at an extremely high rate. The Lakers have shown they can do the offensive thing even better than the Suns can but this team is much better at defending as they are a top-10 defensive club and No. 5 in the NBA for defensive field goal percentage. Yes, the Suns did blow out the Lakers in the first meeting in Phoenix this season but that game was way back in December and the Lakers have now won three straight in the series since then, including one in Phoenix. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, and they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Phoenix.

Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Free NBA Pick: Under 210 -110 odds
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Two teams with a week off spells trouble for timing and outside shooting. Just as we saw in game 1 of East Conference Finals teams take at least a half to get their feet under them. Lakers are coming off a series in which they played another run and gun team in UTAH and they slowed them down and really took advantage of them. Look for LAL to run the triangle offense and use close to control this game. PHO will make shots late but not enough to push this one over! Enjoy the under and don’t forget check out Craig’s huge NBA side play!

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Free Pick: Boston Celtics -1 -110 odds
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in Game 6 is on the home side: After dominating through the first four games of this series, the Celtics finally slowed down Lebron James as he scored just 15 points on 3 of 14 shooting; and he was held scoreless in the first half. Cleveland won Game 3 in Boston 124-95 but lost there two days later 97-87. Cleveland is a horrible 2-6 SU its last eight on the road; also just 2-11 SU its last 13 on the road vs. the C’s. On the other side of the court: The “Big 3″ combined for 64 points in the 32 point Game 5 beatdown. Kevin Garnett’s presence has been huge and he should once again dominate the Cav’s on the defensive end in this game. Not only is Boston 4-2 ATS its last six vs. Cleveland, its also 7-3 ATS its last 10 overall and 4-1 ATS its last five at TD Garden.

Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this contest; I expect Boston to continue to do what its done to Cleveland over the last two games; hit the Cavaliers with a steady, relentless dose of Rajon Rondo and get a quiet and efficient game from Boston’s Big 3; you may want to consider a second look at the CELTICS in this situation.

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Free Pick: Atlanta Hawks +6.5 odds
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With their backs against the wall, and after three sub par efforts, I believe the Hawks will play their best game of this series as they catch what I believe will be a somewhat complacent Magic team that will look to wrap things up in Game 5 on their home floor:

Orlando has man-handled the Hawks and hasn’t lost a game in over a month; I expect a letdown here though against a determined, talented, and desperate Atlanta team.

Interestingly, Orlando is in fact a poor 4-6 ATS this year in road games where the total is between 190 and 194 1/2.

On the other side of the court: Poor road team; great home team.

Atlanta has once again run into a wall in the second round though.

When this series started, I believed the Hawks would get at least one game, so am as surprised as many of the Atlanta players are themselves about being down 3-0; “The chemistry, it’s OK,” Al Horford said. “At times, it can be really good. Other times, not so good. There are ups and down. We have a lot of good guys on the team. We mesh to a certain extent. I just think sometimes, when things don’t go our way, everybody seems to crawl into their own little hole.”

And although it might lose again tonight, I expect Atlanta to play with some pride and keep this one close down the stretch.

Don’t forget as well, that the Hawks have excelled in this spot all year; 8-2 ATS this season after scoring 85 points or less in their previous contest.

Bottom line: Atlanta has shown little “heart” in this Round 2 matchup so far, but I think it still has some fight left in it; consider a second look at the Hawks in this situation.

Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs
Free Pick: Under 207 Points -110 odds
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After facing each other three times, the Suns and Spurs both really know what each is trying to accomplish offensively. That makes stopping each other much easier in Game 4. San Antonio knows they have to defend the pick and roll much better than they did in Game 3, and this resilient team will do so. Phoenix has to contain the Big 3 and make everyone else try and beat them, and they were very effective in doing so in Game 3 with the exception of Ginobli. Parker and Duncan were virtual non-factors. This 207-point total is the biggest of the series to this point, which gives us solid value on the UNDER.

This play also falls under a system that is 40-10 (80%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). The Suns are 10-1 to the UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Phoenix is 31-16 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 or more points this season. Phoenix has found a way to finally play solid defense this season, and we know that San Antonio can defend. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Free Pick: Cleveland Cavs -1 -110 odds
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Reasons the Cavs cover:
1.) System Play. We’ll Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. This is a 28-6 ATS System hitting 82.4% since 1996. This system is 2-1 this season.

2.) Cleveland actually has a better road record (28-16) than Boston’s home record (27-18). Home court has not been much of an advantage at all for the Celtics, and that was on display in Game 3. It’s clear that Lebron James’ elbow is just fine after he poured in 21 first quarter points en route to a 124-95 Game 3 victory. If Cleveland plays at or near their best, Boston cannot beat them. The Cavs won’t make the same mistake they did in Game 2 by coming out flat. Look for the Cavs to go in for the kill Sunday. Bet Cleveland in Game 4.

Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers 3:30 ET ABC - May 2nd 2010
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Pao Gasol’s Game 6 tip-in with less than a second left against the Oklahoma City Thunder punched the Los Angeles Lakers tickets to the Western Conference Semifinals for the third straight season. Though it was the only two-points the bigman scored the entire second half, none of his seven other points were nearly as big. Kobe Bryant and company went 3-3 ATS in the six-game series. Their opponent, the Utah Jazz, closed the Denver Nuggets out in their house 112-104 as 6.5 point Game 6 home chalk. The ATS win was their fourth of the series; they went a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS when tagged the favorites, but just 1-2 SU & ATS when dogged. Utah is just 1-6 ATS the L/7 times it was a road underdog, and it’s had tons of trouble with HC Phil Jackson’s squad going just 5-15 SU & 7-12-1 ATS the L/20 overall meetings. The Lakers took three of their four meetings both SU & ATS against the Jazz this season, and cruised to a pair of Staples Center covers most recently winning 106-92 as 4.5-point chalk back on April 2nd. Utah last scored an outright win at LA way back in 2006.

The Lakers currently sit as seven-point favorites with the ‘total’ set at 199.5 for Game 1 of this NBA playoff betting series.

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