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The last time Ohio State was in the BCS National Title game, they were drubbed by the Florida Gators. The last time that LSU played in the Superdome, they destroyed Notre Dame in the 2007 Sugar Bowl. Can the Buckeyes overcome last year’s loss and go the distance this year, or will the Tigers make them back-to-back losers?

Perhaps the most intriguing element of the Buckeyes preparations is how they cope with a 51-day layoff between their last game and the BCS National Title tilt. It was obvious in their 41-14 loss to Florida last season that they were complacent and apathetic heading in to the matchup. Back then, they were invincible and an obvious top-seed in the nation. This year, they are anything but invincible despite the attaining the top-seed again.

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LSU Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Whether it’s Matt Flynn or Ryan Perrilloux at the helm, the LSU offense has been nothing short of prolific for the entire season. They rank ninth in scoring with 40.2 points per game and hurl the ball for a solid 227.3 pass yards per game. Flynn will get the start as his shoulder looks to be healed, but the two-quarterback system of LSU will keep Ohio guessing at every turn. 

Mobile quarterbacks have given this stout defense fits for the majority of the year. However, this unit proved it was the best in the nation by silencing opponents to an astounding 10.7 points per game against, while containing offenses to only 148.2 pass yards and 80.5 rushing yards per game. John Laurinaitis, the line-backing leader of this incredible unit, still has the bitter taste of defeat in his mouth and will rally this defense to throw everything it has at this LSU offense.

The top priority will be stopping running-back Jacob Hester, who averages 5.0 yards per carry and is responsible for moving the chains between the twenties for the Tigers. Ohio State will have trouble containing Hester on the edges because the line-backing corps, while strong, lacks speed and will lose a step as they are forced to spy on Flynn who can demoralize the Buckeyes with a play-action pass.

Ohio State Offense vs. LSU Defense
Ohio State’s offense is efficient, well-balanced and focused on pounding the rock. Starting tailback Chris Wills averages 5.8 yards per carry and has amassed 14 touchdowns. He is spelled by Maurice Wells, who gains 3.3 yards per carry and has the kind of breakaway speed that can ruin a defensive coordinator’s day. Both will be challenging a fierce front-seven led by defensive-tackle Glenn Dorsey. The Tigers only give up 106.1 yards on the ground.
 
Todd Boeckman is nowhere close to the threat that Troy Smith was in college, but he is an efficient passer who completed 64.5 percent of his passes while gaining 2,171 yards, 23 scores and 12 picks through the air. LSU is fast, agile and aggressive in the secondary and allows only 175.1 passing yards per game.

The LSU defense is slightly more vulnerable on the scoreboard, as is proven by their 20.1 points allowed per game. While Ohio State only puts up 32.0 points on average, it is important to note that they usually go in to squat mode after gaining a decisive lead and pull the reigns off their offensive assault when they gain a lead.

The Tigers defense has only been ripped by two players this season – Andrew Woodson of Kentucky and Darren McFadden of Arkansas. Ohio State lacks that kind of game-breaking superstar, but that will lend itself to their advantage as LSU will have trouble keying off any single player on the Buckeyes. Expect Jim Tressel to deploy Wells early and often to open up passing lanes for Boeckman as he targets Brian Robiskie as much as possible. Robiskie holds a strong physical advantage over anyone on the LSU secondary and will be the Buckeyes main scoring threat.

NCAA Football Betting Trends
-Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
-Total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State’s last 6 games
-LSU is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games
-Total has gone OVER in 7 of LSU’s last 8 games

Final Verdict
The bandwagon is pulling hard for LSU and for good reason. They are essentially playing at home, in a bowl that they’ve enjoyed a truckload of success with a team that has only been beaten when two teams threw the kitchen sink at them. So why bet against them?

Because Ohio State has been here before, and the team leader’s will refuse to be complacent about letting another national title slip them by. The well-balanced attack of Ohio State will help move the chains against an LSU defense that has appeared vulnerable at time.

Ohio State will win this game as their defense grounds Hester and forces Flynn to throw against a secondary that is underrated in their ability to cause turnovers and generate coverage sacks. Vindication is a powerful motivator, and it will turn the tides against LSU as Ohio State goes on to win the BCS Championship.

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CLICK HERE FOR EXPERT KANSAS VS. VIRGINIA TECH ORANGE BOWL PICKS & ODDS

LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Kansas went into the season finale undefeated but lost to Missouri 36-28 as a 1.5-point favorite. Missouri burned the Jayhawks for 519 yards in that one. Virginia Tech won the ACC title and got revenge for an earlier loss at the same time with a 30-16 win over Boston College as a 4.5-point favorite on a neutral field.

ABOUT KANSAS:
The Good News — Kansas was second nationally, scoring 44.3 points a game. They were also fourth in scoring defense, allowing only 16 points per contest. Kansas leads the nation with a +19 turnover margin and is sixth in defending the run, yielding 91.4 yards a game and 3.1 yards a carry. Todd Reesing was the ninth leading passer in the country, with 32 TD’s and only six INT’s.

The Bad News — With only 21 sacks, the Jayhawks are only so-so at getting to the passer. And the bloated statistics may be, to a considerable extent, a reflection of a VERY weak non-conference schedule (Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, Florida International).

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH:
The Good News — Virginia Tech ranked just ahead of Kansas (5th) in rushing defense, giving up 2.75 yards a carry and 86 yards a game. the Hokies were also fourth in pass efficiency defense and fifth in total defense (yards per game). Only Ohio State allowed less points per contest. Sean Glennon re-established himself as a viable quarterback in the season’s second half, and threw just one interception in his last nine games.

The Bad News — There were offensive line problems. VT allowed 49 quarterback sacks and priduced a running game that averaged only 3.4 yards an attempt. Brandon Ore, the feature back, has had only one 100-yard game.

Here are some college football betting TRENDS relative to this matchup:
* KAN has covered 14 of its last 16 games
* KAN has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
* VT has won and covered its last five games
* VT is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games away form home
* VT has played three of its last four games OVER the total
* VT has covered two of its last six bowl games

THE BOTTOM LINE: Kansas did not exactly run wild against any solid defense it faced, and in Virginia Tech it could be encountering its finest defensive opponent yet. Against Missouri, Colorado and Texas A&M, Reesing had three TD’s and two INT’s. Against the rest of the schedule, his ratio was 29-4. KU had just 42 net rushing yards in it sbiggest test against Mizzou. Virginia Tech got shellshocked early against LSU (give me a few points with them NOW), but came on to win and cover the last five, four of those against teams that went to a bowl. It was encouraging to see Sean Glennon re-emerging as an effective QB for Virginia Tech. Brandon Ore doesn’t have to be dominant; he only has to provide a little balance. Throw in a little “Beamer Ball” on special teams, and you’ve got a recipe for victory.

We lay the points with Virginia Tech, the 4.5-point favorite in the BetUS college football betting odds.

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Sugar Bowl Free Pick: Hawaii +8.0
Tuesday January 1 ‘08 8:30p
Certain stereotypes die hard, we suppose. Such as the argument that the gap remains wide between BCS and non-BCS conference powers. Which, depending on the matchup, might still prove true. But recent wins by “outsiders” Utah (35-7 over Pitt in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl) and Boise State (who could forget that epic 43-42 thriller over Oklahoma in last year’s Fiesta?) in BCS bowls, not to mention some of the upsets during the just-completed regular season (remember Appalachian State over Michigan?) ought to dispel those notions…at least for the time being.

Still, just because Boise beat OU last year, and Utah whipped Pitt three years ago (a game in which the Utes were a rather prohibitive 14-point favorite, by the way), doesn’t mean Hawaii is going to do the same against Georgia. Indeed, there are some potentially troubling fundamental matchups for the Warriors to overcome in New Orleans, not to mention evidence that, at least based on its schedule, June Jones’ bunch really doesn’t belong in the BCS, especially vs. a Bulldog team tested week in and week out by rugged SEC competition. Mainland travel has also often been a thorn for Hawaii teams and came very close to scuttling this season’s BCS plans, with UH experiencing narrow escapes at modest WAC outposts such as La Tech (45-44 in OT), San Jose State (42-35 in OT), and Nevada (28-26 on a last-second FG). And last time we checked, trips to Ruston, San Jose, and Reno sure aren’t to be confused with excursions to Tuscaloosa, Knoxville, or Jacksonville for a date vs. Florida, all of which UGa dealt with in ‘07.

Thus, the challenge for the Warriors is for their defense not to be manhandled by a maturing Bulldog OL that began to open holes for breathtaking RS frosh RB Knowshon Moreno (1273 YR) as the season progressed and allowed soph QB Matthew Stafford ample time to look downfield for speedy deep-threat WRs Sean Bailey & Mohammed Massaquoi. Although most WAC observers believe Moreno might do significant damage, they also suggest this Hawaii “D” is more fundamentally sound under 1st-year d.c. Greg McMackin (who has lots of NFL background) than it was under Jerry Glanville the past two seasons. In particular, McMackin’s in-game adjustments were invaluable, reflected in the fact Hawaii jumped from 93rd a year ago to 33rd in total defense stats this season.

But we’re not sure a bigger challenge doesn’t await a Georgia “D” that admittedly dealt with a lot of firepower in ‘07, but never had to cope with a strike force quite like the UH Red Gun piloted by sr. QB Colt Brennan, now healthy after throwing 38 TDP in 2007 after tossing 58 a year ago. Brennan’s prolific squadron of wideouts will allow the Red Gun to keep firing for a full 60 minutes. And even if the Bulldogs extend the margin, keeping the back door “shut” against Brennan might be easier said than done.

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Chick-Fil-A-Bowl Free Pick: Auburn +2.5
Mon Dec 31 ‘07 7:30p
Auburn was a relatively boring, defense-first team this year, exactly the type of team that gets overlooked when bowl season comes around. The Tigers lacked a single marquee offensive playmaker in a conference loaded with them. QB Brandon Cox, a senior, threw only nine touchdown passes all year, and the Tigers finished with the 107th ranked passing offense in the country. And leading rusher Ben Tate split carries with Brad Lester and Mario Fennin, leaving Auburn without a 1000 yard rusher either. In short, this team didn’t impress the betting public very much, giving us value supporting them here as an underdog against an inferior team from a weaker conference.

Auburn’s defense was downright dominant all year. On the road, against Heisman winner Tim Tebow, Auburn held the Gators to their season low in both points and total yards, engineering the outright road upset. On the road, against Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden at Arkansas, the Razorbacks, too, were held to a season low in both yardage and points in an outright upset win for the Tigers. We’re talking about a defense that held five of their last seven opponents to ten points or less, the type of defense that should have little trouble shutting down this pedestrian Clemson attack.

Clemson dominated weak foes all year long, but in sharp contrast to Auburn, they did not fare well when stepping up in class. These Tigers were more like kitty-cats against their elite level foes, blasted at home by both Virginia Tech and Boston College, while being held to a single field goal in an ugly loss at Georgia Tech. And, unlike Auburn, Clemson did not fare well away from home against quality defenses. Tommy Bowden’s squad lost straight up as a double digit favorite against Kentucky in their bowl game last year. Expect a similar result this time around. Take Auburn.

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Sun Bowl Free Pick: South Florida -6.0 (-105)
Monday Dec 31 ‘07 2:00p
The Sun Bowl is by no means the venue either of these clubs felt they’d be this bowl season. Each at one point was ranked the #2 team in the country, yet each failed to hold onto that spot the following week. South Florida saw its hopes squashed when they paid Rutgers a visit and lost by a 30-27 final count in a wild and wacky contest. Oregon’s hopes to play in the National Championship were all but squashed in the desert when QB Dennis Dixon ripped apart his knee, and the Ducks went on to get embarrassed for the second year in a row to Arizona.Still, it was a very successful campaign for the SFL Bulls who won nine games for the second time under the watchful eye of Head Coach Jim Leavitt. A win here would give them double-digit wins for the first time in the programs history. QB Matt Grothe opened up many people’s eyes with his efforts throughout the regular season. He’s a dual threat that threw for 2473 yards with a TD/INT ratio of 13/12, and he also rushed for 850 yards and hit pay dirt 10 times. The offense exploded this season with him at the helm as the 36 PPG they averaged this season was 13-points higher than their average of a year ago.

If only Dixon didn’t hurt himself….you’ll hear that a lot from the Duck faithful, but you do have to ask yourself what might have been if he didn’t screw his knee up against ASU on to have Arizona finish the job off. Their lone loss up until that point was against Cal in a game they handed away, and with the Top 10 in the polls changing on a weekly basis, they had an excellent opportunity to play in the BCS Championship Game with games against UCLA and Oregon State only left on the docket.

I question the Ducks mindset here greatly whereas South Florida is still looking to build the foundation of its young program that only started playing D1 A ball back in 2001. Lay the points…..

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Independence Bowl Free Pick: Colorado +3.5 (-110)
Sunday Dec 30 ‘07 8:00p
If your appetite for football wasn’t taken care of with the NFL’s Week 17 slate, we’ve got a bowl game going tonight as the Colorado Buffaloes and Alabama Crimson Tide collide for just the third time in each program’s existence.

Colorado enters this game off a big win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers their last time out. The win was their sixth of the season, and it allowed the team to become bowl eligible. The Buffaloes regular season didn’t go quite as planned in the second season of the Dan Hawkins era, but there were some memorable moments. The comeback win over the then ranked #3 Oklahoma Sooners at home was unbelievable, and they went into Lubbock and handed the Texas Tech Red Raiders their only home loss of the season. HC Dan Hawkins son, Cody, got better as the season progressed and ended up throwing for 2686 yards with a TD/INT ratio of 19/15. RB Hugh Charles led the Buffs on the ground amassing 989 yards and 8 TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC.

Alabama closed out their regular season schedule with a tough loss in the “Iron Bowl” to Auburn. The Tide didn’t close out the last month of the season the way HC Nick Saban had envisioned. After the shocking drubbing they dished out to Tennessee at home, the Tide went on to lose to LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, and most alarmingly, UL Monroe at home. This is a club that went into a tailspin at the end of the season, and that doesn’t bode well for them in this spot.

However, oddsmakers have tagged the SEC members as 3.5-point favorites with the ‘Total’ set at 52. Alabama went a combined 1-6 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite, and they lost 3 of those 7 games SU. As for the Buffs, they went 2-4 ATS when in the role of underdog this season, but they had a pair of huge wins as mentioned earlier over Oklahoma and Texas Tech. These teams are very even in a number of respects, so grab the points with the Buffaloes who should have a more positive psyched after finishing off the regular season on a high note.

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Florida State +4.5 (-110)
Mon Dec 31 ‘07 4:00p
Much has been made of the fact that the Florida State Seminoles have 36 players that are suspended for the Music City Bowl vs. the Kentucky Wildcats, but most of the suspended players are reserves, so this line move looks like an overreaction.

Sure, the Noles now have practically zero depth, but that is more of a concern over several games than it is for one bowl game at the end of the year. They did have one key suspension on defense in cornerback Patrick Robinson, who had six interceptions this season, but the other 10 starters remain in tact, and the only notable suspension on offense is that of backup quarterback Xavier Lee, who has been coming in for a few situational plays each game. That just means that starting quarterback Drew Weatherford won’t get any relief this game, but truth be told, he has actually been steady if not spectacular, with just one interception in 10 games.

Kentucky was having a dream season, and the were actually ranked in the top 10 at 6-1 after upsetting LSU, but the Wildcats promptly went out and lost four of their last five games to finish at 7-5. The problem down the stretch was the Kentucky defense, which allowed 45, 31, 24 and 52 points respectively in the four late-season losses.

Also in Florida State’s favor is the fact that ACC underdogs have been surprisingly excellent bets in bowl games, going a stunning 19-6, 76.0 percent against the spread since 2000!

Music City Bowl Free Pick: Florida State +4.5 - CLICK HERE FOR EXPERT BOWL GAME PICKS

Air Force +3.5 (-110)
Monday Dec 31 ‘07 12:30p
The California Golden Bears were a train-wreck coming down the stretch, losing six of their last seven games while going 0-7 against the spread, and they cannot be too thrilled about facing a disciplined Air Force Falcons team in the Armed Forces Bowl.

It is hard to believe that the Golden Bears were poised to become the top ranked team in the country two months ago, when they were ranked number two and gave away a home game to Oregon State on the same day that number one lost. California never did recover from that loss, and more disturbingly, it looked as if they just threw in the towel, losing to the likes of Stanford and Washington. In fact, their only win in the last seven games was by just three points at home vs. lowly Washington State.

Air Force quietly had a very nice season going 9-3 straight up, and they were very nice to their supporters going a scintillating 9-2 ATS. Oddly, while California lost its last seven games ATS, Air Force ended the season with a 7-0 ATS run! Now normally, that combination would give value to the Cal side, but that does not appear to be the case here, as the Golden Bears still appear to be getting a little too much respect from the oddsmakers.

Finally, while Pac-10 underdogs have been great bets in bowl games lately, Pac-10 bowl favorites are just 9-16 ATS since 2000.

Armed Forces Bowl Free Pick: Air Force +3.5 - CLICK HERE FOR MORE FREE BOWL GAME PICKS