Boise State Broncos vs. New Mexico Lobos
Point Spread Pick: New Mexico +17.5 points (October 7th 2016)
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Tricky spot for Boise State here. The Broncos haven’t had an easy time against the Lobos over the years, most recently getting stunned on the blue turf as 31-point favorites last year. While I’m not ready to call for the outright upset from the Lobos here, I am confident they can hang in for four quarters.
While Boise State checks in a perfect 4-0 SU this season, it has only managed to post a 1-3 ATS mark. That’s an identical ATS record to that of the Lobos, who do come in with some positive momentum following a wild 48-41 win over San Jose State last week.
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New Mexico isn’t known for its offense – this is a run-heavy attack that rarely blows the door off anyone. But this year has proven to be a little different so far, with the Lobos scoring at least 28 points in all four games so far. They’ve put up a whopping 48 points in both home games to date.
I don’t believe there’s any real intimidation factor at play here. The Lobos know they can hang with, and even beat the Broncos, and Boise State will certainly have their full attention thanks to that flawless record. Look for the Lobos to effectively shorten this game and ultimately stay inside the inflated number. Take New Mexico (8*).
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