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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Clemson Tigers Football Prediction: September 27th 2014

North Carolina vs. Clemson
Prediction: North Carolina +15.5 (September 17th 2014)
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I believe there’s been a huge over reaction to North Carolina’s ugly loss last week to East Carolina, creating exceptional value here on the Tar Heels as a 15.5-point underdog. There’s no doubt Clemson is the better team, but the Tigers are going to find it difficult to play up to their potential after laying it all on the line last week against their hated ACC rivals Florida State.

While Clemson is in for a major letdown, we should get one of North Carolina’s best efforts of the entire season after their performance last week against the Pirates. This is a talented Tar Heels team. One that many experts picked to win the ACC Coastal.

Those that think the Tigers are going to walk in here and just annihilate North Carolina, may want to take a look back to last year and what transpired the following game after Clemson played Florida State. The Tigers took on a Maryland team that was missing several key players and wound up winning by a final of just 40-27 as a 17-point favorite. That Terrapins team was in such bad shape that had these two teams played any other week I think Clemson would have won by 30-points. Keep in mind that the previous week Maryland had lost 10-34 at Wake Forest as a 4-point favorite, providing us with almost an identical scenario here with North Carolina.

One thing North Carolina has been able to do is bounce back from a loss. The Tar Heels are 7-2 ATS following defeat and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. This is such a difficult spot for Clemson that I don’t think it’s out of the question that North Carolina could win this game outright.

Key System – Teams who are averaging 4.8 to 5.6 yards/play after allowing 525 or more total yards in each of their last 2 games against an opponent who is only giving up 4.2 to 4.8 yards/play are 23-4 (85%) ATS since 1992. BET NORTH CAROLINA +14.5!

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Florida State vs. NC State Football Pick & Point Spread: September 27th 2014

FLORIDA STATE VS. NC STATE FOOTBALL PICK SPREAD SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014Florida State Seminoles vs. NC State Wolfpack
Point Spread: Florida State -18 Over/Under 60 (September 27th 2014)
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ATS Trends:
Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Wolfpack are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wolfpack are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Seminoles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games on grass. Seminoles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Seminoles are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Seminoles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in September. Seminoles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games following a ATS win. Over is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 conference games. Over is 13-4 in Wolfpack last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 6-2 in Wolfpack last 8 games overall. Under is 12-4 in Wolfpack last 16 home games. Under is 5-0 in Seminoles last 5 games on grass. Under is 5-0 in Seminoles last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games overall. Under is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games following a ATS loss. Over is 5-2 in Seminoles last 7 road games.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in North Carolina State. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Seminoles are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings. Underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings. Seminoles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in North Carolina State.

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Minnesota vs. Michigan Football Pick & Point Spread: September 27th 2014

MINNESOTA VS. MICHIGAN POINT SPREAD PICK SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Point Spread: Michigan -13 Over/Under 42 (September 27th 2014)
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ATS Trends:
Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Wolverines are 17-35-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Golden Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf. Golden Gophers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Golden Gophers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Golden Gophers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 5-0 in Wolverines last 5 games in September. Under is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 games following a ATS loss. Over is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 6-1 in Wolverines last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-1 in Wolverines last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 games following a ATS win. Under is 7-2 in Golden Gophers last 9 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 7-3 in Golden Gophers last 10 games in September. Under is 7-3-1 in Golden Gophers last 11 conference games.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Golden Gophers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

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