San Diego State Aztecs vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Football Betting Prediction: SDST -10 points (November 19th 2016)
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SDSU has won 19 of its L20 overall & 17 straight in MWC play…My free play is on San Diego St at 3:30 ET.
The Aztecs won their final 10 games of the 2015 season and opened with three wins in 2016, before falling apart in the 4th quarter of an Oct. 2 game at South Alabama. SDSU led 24-21 into the final period but after South Alabama took the lead early in the 4th, a quick series and short punt set up the Jaguars for another TD, less than four minutes later. South Alabama put the game away with an 80-yard ‘pick six’ later in the quarter. SDSU has rebounded since that loss with six straight wins, all in league play and enter with a commanding lead in the West Division of the MWC (in line to defend its MWC title).
Wyoming comes in 7-3 overall, including 5-1 in the Mountain Division, tied with Boise St (which plays Friday at home vs UNLV) and New Mexico, which plays Saturday at Colorado St. The Cowboys shocked the Broncos with a 30-28 home win back on October 29 but this past Saturday lost a triple-OT game to UNLV, 69-66 (third highest scoring game in FBS history). Wyoming allowed a ridiculous 401 yards rushing to UNLV and now faces SDSU, which features Donnel Pumphrey, who leads the nation with 1,779 yards rushing (6.6 YPC / 14 TDs) and sits just 347 yards away from breaking the all-time NCAA rushing record held by Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne (6,397).
Pumphrey turned in another stellar effort in last week’s 46-16 rout of Nevada, gaining 198 yards on 7.6 YPC. Even more frightening is that when Pumphrey needs a blow, there’s Rashaad Penny (784 yards on 7.8 YPC with 9 TDs), who out-did Pumphrey against Nevada, rushing for 208 yards in just 10 attempts! Wyoming has a terrific RB in Brian Hill (1,417 yards on 5.7 YPC with 16 TDs) but the SDSU running game is tough to top. Wyoming is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents 40.4-27.6 PPG but getting past SDSU will be a real test.
After last week’s awful defensive effort (if you’ll pardon the pun), Wyoming is now allowing 33.7 PPG (104th) on the season on 462.6 YPG (108th). In stark contrast, the SDSU defense allows just 15.2 PPG (7th) on 283.3 YPG (5th). The Aztecs have now won 19 of their last 20 games and still have a chance at earning a New Year’s Six bowl bid. SDSU cracked the AP top-25 last week but not the CFP rankings. However, Boise St (20) and Western Michigan (21) are no locks to stay where they are. If SDSU wins out (especially if can beat Boise St in the MWC title game), the Aztecs just may be in line for a Cotton Bowl berth.
First things first. The Aztecs have won 17th straight conference games, so what’s one more, “with room too spare!” Lay the points with the road favorite in this one.